| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 88 | 10.5x | 17.8x | Top tier | |
Growth | 37 | 2.9% | 7.1% | Bottom tier | |
Quality | 74 | 6.8% | 4.5% | Top tier | |
Safety | 47 | 4.6x | 2.6x | Around median | |
Capital Return | 86 | — | 2.12% | Top tier | |
Momentum | 19 | -20.7% | 2.9% | Bottom tier | |
Sentiment | 42 | 9 | 3 | Around median |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Mattel is transforming its model from a traditional toy company into an intellectual property-driven play and family entertainment business, deriving revenue from dolls, vehicles, infant, toddler, and preschool products, as well as action figures, building sets, cards, digital games, films, and licensing. Its portfolio includes owned brands such as Hot Wheels, Barbie, UNO, Fisher-Price, and Masters of the Universe, alongside partner properties such as Toy Story 5, Disney Princess, Frozen, DC, and K-Pop Demon Hunters. In Q2 fiscal 2026, Mattel ranked first globally in the dolls, vehicles, and infant, toddler, and preschool categories, according to management citing Circana, while growth came from vehicles, challenger categories, and digital games following the full acquisition of Mattel163.
In Q2 fiscal 2026, net sales increased 10% as reported and 9% in constant currency, while revenue reported in the news reached $1.13 billion, supported by growth of 12% in North America, 7% in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and 4% in Asia Pacific, versus flat performance in Latin America. Hot Wheels grew 12%, Masters of the Universe billings more than tripled year to date in fiscal 2026, and Mattel163 added approximately $49 million in revenue and about $14 million in adjusted operating income. In contrast, dolls declined due to lower revenue from Barbie streaming content and weakness in Polly Pocket, while the infant, toddler, and preschool category also declined, primarily because of Fisher-Price, despite high double-digit growth in Little People.
The results revealed a clear gap between sales growth and profitability in Q2 fiscal 2026; adjusted gross margin was 48.6%, adjusted operating income declined to $39 million from $96 million, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization fell to $95 million from $170 million, and adjusted earnings per share dropped to $0.01 from $0.21. Advertising spending increased by $45 million to $124 million, and adjusted selling, general, and administrative expenses rose by $38 million to $384 million. By comparison, EDGAR data for Q1 fiscal 2026 showed revenue of $862.2 million, gross profit of $386.8 million, net income of $61 million, and earnings per share of $0.20.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The average analyst price target is $18.25, compared with a high target of $28 and a low target of $12, with an overall consensus of Buy; the average is below the 52-week range high of $22.48 and above its low of $12.73. A current price-to-earnings ratio is not available in the provided data, while the wide range of targets and the 52-week range reflect uncertainty between 10% sales growth in Q2 fiscal 2026 and the decline in adjusted earnings per share to $0.01 and pressure on adjusted gross margin to 48.6%.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Net sales increased 10% as reported and 9% in constant currency, while revenue reported in the news reached $1.13 billion. North America led performance with 12% growth, followed by Europe, the Middle East and Africa at 7% and Asia Pacific at 4%, while Latin America was flat. Growth came from Hot Wheels, UNO, action figures, and digital games, and Mattel163 added approximately $49 million in revenue.
Adjusted gross margin was 48.6% in Q2 fiscal 2026, following negative impacts of 170 basis points from tariffs, 120 basis points from inflation, 110 basis points from royalties, and 60 basis points from currency movements. Advertising spending increased by $45 million to $124 million, while adjusted selling, general, and administrative expenses rose by $38 million to $384 million. As a result, adjusted operating income declined to $39 million from $96 million, and adjusted earnings per share fell to $0.01 from $0.21.
The dolls category declined in Q2 fiscal 2026 due to lower Barbie streaming content revenue and weakness in Polly Pocket, partially offset by K-Pop Demon Hunters, Disney Princess, and Frozen. In the second half of fiscal 2026, Mattel intends to double Barbie content on YouTube, rerelease seven classic animated films, and launch Barbie and the Nutcracker, the Barbie Dreamhouse, and new packaging. Management expects the trend to improve during the second half of fiscal 2026 and Barbie to return to growth in fiscal 2027, supported by additional content, fashion products, and adult-targeted collections.
Hot Wheels grew 12% in Q2 fiscal 2026 and has been Mattel's largest brand since fiscal 2024, with the business approaching $2 billion in size. Management said it was the world's leading vehicles brand and continued to gain market share during the first half of fiscal 2026. Mattel is expanding the brand to adult collectors, Mattel Brick Shop, consumer products, experiences, digital games, and content.
Mattel163 added approximately $49 million in revenue and $14 million in adjusted operating income in Q2 fiscal 2026, while also improving gross margin by approximately 120 basis points. UNO Wild was in soft launch at the August 4, 2026 call and had achieved all specified production milestones through that date. Mattel plans to launch it commercially worldwide in early fiscal 2027 and shifted most of the $40 million digital marketing investment to coincide with that launch.
Mattel is targeting net sales growth of between 3% and 6% in constant currency, an adjusted gross margin of approximately 50%, and adjusted operating income of between $580 million and $630 million. It also expects adjusted earnings per share of between $1.27 and $1.39 and reaffirmed this guidance on August 4, 2026. Achieving it depends on margin improvement in the second half, the contribution from Mattel163, savings from Optimizing for Profitable Growth, and lower discounts, with no material benefit from tariff refunds included.
