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Stocks
Marriott International, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall54
Balanced — near the middle of the marketMomentum TrapF 8/9SafeBetter than 54% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
31
34.6x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
40
4.7%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
27
—4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
73
0.2x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
62
0.81%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
60
30.0%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
85
17▲3Top tier
MAR

MAR Marriott International, Inc.

Marriott International, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
334.69
▲ ⁦+1.71%⁩ (+5.62)
Market Cap$85.8B
Beta1.12
52w Low52w High
256.76410.98
Last Week
⁦+0.47%⁩
Last Month
⁦-4.23%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-13.34%⁩
Last Year
⁦+26.78%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$335
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$389
⁦+16%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$343–$449⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$181
⁦-46%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦9.3⁩% discount · ⁦2⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$181–$389⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$386.71
⁦+15.5%⁩
Current Price $334.69·Median $389.00
Low
$343.00
High
$449.00
Current price
$334.69
Average target
$386.71
Street summary

Marriott International (MAR) Price Revision Analysis

The average price target for Marriott stock saw a slight increase of 0.22% over the past thirty days to reach 388.77, representing a clear price premium over the current price of 336.07. However, there is a notable divergence between the high (449) and low (343) price targets, with the number of analysts remaining stable at 5, reflecting a cautious outlook despite the positive price gap compared to valuations.

As of 2026-09-03
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-0.9%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.41
Hold
Analyst coverage
27
Buy conviction
48%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
32%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time27 analysts rating
1
12
12
1
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.35 → 3.41
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-02
    Wolfe Research
    OutperformPeer Perform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-12
    CICC
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-04
    UBS
    Neutral
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    34.65x
    4.56x36.49x
    Above average
  • Forward P/E
    27.47x
    3.79x30.29x
    Above average
  • EV / EBITDA
    18.71x
    2.75x22.03x
    Above average
  • FCF Yield
    3.6%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    4.7%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    8.9%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    20.2%
    12.0%66.5%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    —
    —
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.21x
    0.65x5.48x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    0.8%
    0.1%5.9%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    28.3%
    8.9%99.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    3.88
    -2.656.14
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-03 data

Company Overview

Marriott International operates a global asset-light hospitality model based on franchise, management, incentive, and brand licensing fees, alongside co-branded credit card fees, branded residential fees, and revenue from owned or leased hotels. As of June 30, 2026, its portfolio included more than 1.8 million rooms across more than 10,000 properties, while Marriott Bonvoy membership exceeded 295 million members; this base supports franchise fees, loyalty programs, and partnerships with JPMorgan Chase and American Express.

In Q2 FY2026, the company reported revenue of $7.1 billion, net income of $766 million, and EDGAR diluted EPS of $2.90, equivalent to a calculated net income margin of approximately 10.8%. On an adjusted basis, net income was $844 million, adjusted diluted EPS rose 20% to $3.19, and adjusted EBITDA increased 13% to $1.59 billion.

Q2 FY2026 results reflected a mixed geographic picture: global RevPAR rose 3.4%, increasing 5% in the United States and Canada, more than 5% in APEC, more than 3% in Greater China, and 3% in CALA, but declined slightly internationally as EMEA fell more than 5% and the Middle East declined 43%. By customer segment, leisure RevPAR rose 5% globally, group RevPAR increased 3%, and business transient RevPAR grew 2%, while total fee revenue jumped 13% to $1.58 billion and incentive management fees increased 6% to $212 million.

What's Driving the Stock

  • On August 3, 2026, management raised its FY2026 global RevPAR growth outlook to 3%–3.5% after Q2 FY2026 performance exceeded its expectations; it also expects growth of 3.5%–4% in Q3 FY2026.
  • Strength in the United States and Canada supported Q2 FY2026 performance, as RevPAR rose 5%, the highest quarterly increase in 13 quarters, and growth was 4% even excluding the World Cup; RevPAR growth exceeded 9% at luxury hotels and 4% at select-service hotels.
  • The room development pipeline reached a record of approximately 629,000 rooms as of June 30, 2026, up approximately 7% annually, including more than 279,000 rooms under construction, including pending conversions. Conversions accounted for 34% of signings and 40% of openings in the first half of FY2026, which recorded the highest number of signings in any first half in the company's history.
  • The new terms of the Marriott Bonvoy card agreements with JPMorgan Chase and American Express are expected to add approximately $30 million to co-branded card fees in the second half of FY2026. Management expects the impact to build to $100–125 million in FY2028 at the current royalty rate of 26%.
  • In June 2026, Marriott began the phased rollout of Ask Bonvoy, an AI-powered conversational search experience across marriott.com and the Marriott Bonvoy app. In parallel, more than 2,000 select-service hotels in the United States and Canada migrated to systems under the multiyear technology transformation, with the aim of increasing revenue-generation efficiency, improving the guest experience, and automating workflows.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The bullish case is based on financial growth outpacing RevPAR in Q2 FY2026, as total fee revenue and adjusted EBITDA each rose 13%, while adjusted diluted EPS grew 20% to $3.19.
  • +The record development pipeline of approximately 629,000 rooms as of June 30, 2026 provides clear visibility into expansion of the fee base, particularly with more than 279,000 rooms under construction and management continuing to target mid-single-digit net room growth in the years following FY2026.
  • +Marriott Bonvoy's base of more than 295 million members strengthens the economics of co-branded cards; the estimated incremental impact of approximately $30 million in FY2026 could rise to $100–125 million in FY2028 with the launch of new and refreshed card products.
  • +Cash flow and the share-count reduction policy support growth in shareholder returns, as management expects to return more than $4.5 billion during FY2026, after returning $1.1 billion in Q2 FY2026 and repurchasing approximately 3 million shares.

▼ Selling Case7 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus on MAR is Neutral, with an average target of $388.77 and a wide range of $343 to $449; the average is approximately 5.4% below the 52-week range high of $410.98, while the upper end of their forecasts exceeds that high. The 52-week range extends from $256.76 to $410.98, and this divergence reflects a balance between fee growth and the raised FY2026 outlook versus the impact of the Middle East and development costs, while the data does not provide a valid earnings multiple as an additional anchor.

HoldAnalyst target: $388.77(+16.2%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove MAR's Q2 FY2026 results?

Global RevPAR rose 3.4% in Q2 FY2026, driven by a 5% increase in the United States and Canada and more than 5% in APEC. Total fee revenue rose 13% to $1.58 billion, while adjusted EBITDA increased 13% to $1.59 billion. Adjusted diluted EPS was $3.19 versus analyst estimates of $3.08, while the company reported revenue of $7.1 billion and net income of $766 million according to EDGAR.

What is Marriott's outlook for FY2026?

On August 3, 2026, management raised the FY2026 global RevPAR growth range to 3%–3.5% and expects total fee revenue to increase 11% to $6.03–6.06 billion. It also expects adjusted EBITDA to rise 11%–12% to $5.97–6.03 billion and adjusted diluted EPS to grow 16%–18%. In contrast, net room growth is now closer to the bottom of the 4.5%–5% range because of construction delays in the Middle East.

How does the conflict in the Middle East affect MAR stock?

Middle East RevPAR declined 43% in Q2 FY2026, causing EMEA RevPAR to fall more than 5% despite growth of more than 4% in Europe. Management estimates that the conflict will reduce FY2026 global RevPAR growth by approximately 100 basis points, compared with a previous estimate of between 100 and 125 basis points. Q4 FY2026 remains sensitive because approximately 35% of the region's annual revenue is generated during the quarter, in addition to the difficult comparison with events that increased average room rates in Q4 FY2025.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

−
The Middle East represents the most significant operating risk, as RevPAR in the region fell 43% in Q2 FY2026, and management estimates that the conflict will reduce FY2026 global RevPAR growth by approximately 100 basis points. Results are more sensitive in Q4 FY2026 because approximately 35% of annual Middle East revenue is generated during the quarter, with difficult room-rate comparisons against Q4 FY2025 events.
  • −The company lowered its FY2026 net room growth forecast to near the bottom of the 4.5%–5% range because of construction delays in the Middle East. This could delay the conversion of the record development pipeline into operating rooms and actual fees, despite a 5.2% compound annual growth rate in net rooms since the end of FY2023.
  • −Competition for hotel contracts is intensifying, and management described incentive money for owners as the preferred competitive tool in many cases. As a result, Marriott raised its FY2026 investment spending forecast to $1.25–1.35 billion, with approximately 40%–45% allocated to contract acquisition costs, increasing the capital required to support network growth.
  • −Some profitability items face separate pressures; net revenue from owned, leased, and other activities declined to $49 million in Q2 FY2026 from $78 million a year earlier. Management attributed this primarily to a $27 million property-related litigation reserve and lower contract termination fees, while the FY2026 outlook is also affected by the timing of renewals, the slow ramp-up of Marriott Media Networks, and a company-funded guest satisfaction incentive.
  • −A letter Marriott received from an owners' group and ongoing discussions with them indicate issues related to hotel economics, platform fees, and reimbursable items. In the second half of FY2026, the company introduced an incentive of up to 50 basis points of gross room revenue for hotels that meet specified satisfaction thresholds, an investment that could improve relations with owners but is included in Marriott's expenses.
  • −Group growth could slow in FY2027, as management described the pace of booked revenue as nearly flat, with higher rates and slightly lower room nights. Typically, only 40%–55% of the following year's group business was booked by the middle of the preceding year, so the outcome remains incomplete, but it represents a weaker signal than group pace growth of approximately 5% globally and 6% in the United States during FY2026.
  • −Valuation represents a market risk because the analyst consensus is Neutral rather than Buy, and the target range is wide at $343 to $449. The average target of $388.77 is below the 52-week range high of $410.98, reflecting a ceiling below the highest valuation recorded by the market during that range despite the improved operating outlook.
  • How important are Marriott Bonvoy and the JPMorgan Chase and American Express agreements?

    Marriott Bonvoy has more than 295 million members, making it a key base for franchise and co-branded card fees and for directing demand to hotels across the network. The company expects the new terms of the JPMorgan Chase and American Express agreements to add approximately $30 million to card fees in the second half of FY2026. By FY2028, the annual impact could reach $100–125 million at a 26% royalty rate, with the launch of new and refreshed cards and additional benefits for cardholders.

    Does MAR have a clear path for room growth after FY2026?

    The global development pipeline totaled approximately 629,000 rooms as of June 30, 2026, up approximately 7% annually, and included more than 279,000 rooms under construction, including pending conversions. Conversions represented 34% of signings and 40% of openings in the first half of FY2026, while the company recorded a first-half signing record. The Series by Marriott agreement announced in June 2026 also plans to add approximately 100 hotels in Greater China, with openings beginning during FY2026.

    What role do artificial intelligence and technology transformation play in Marriott's business?

    In June 2026, the company began the phased rollout of Ask Bonvoy, an AI-powered conversational search experience on marriott.com and the Marriott Bonvoy app. Management said the use of artificial intelligence is intended to improve the guest experience, increase the efficiency of delivering revenue to owners, and automate employee workflows. As part of the multiyear technology transformation, more than 2,000 select-service hotels in the United States and Canada migrated to the new systems, while technology and enterprise systems spending represents approximately 25% of the expected FY2026 investment of $1.25–1.35 billion.