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Home
Stocks
Main Street Capital Corporation
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall58
Balanced — near the middle of the marketFalling StarF 3/9Better than 58% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
49
12.5x▲17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
21
-19.2%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
83
——Top tier
▸
Safety
67
——Top tier
▸
Capital Return
62
7.46%▲2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
40
-12.3%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
74
5▲3Top tier
MAIN

MAIN Main Street Capital Corporation

Main Street Capital Corporation · NYSE
Market Closed
56.22
▲ ⁦+0.75%⁩ (+0.42)
Market Cap$5.2B
Beta0.72
52w Low52w High
48.9567.34
Last Week
⁦-3.02%⁩
Last Month
⁦-1.00%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+9.61%⁩
Last Year
⁦-13.01%⁩
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$56
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$57
⁦+1%⁩
See it fairly priced
Range ⁦$55–$58⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$2.49
⁦-96%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$2.49–$57⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$56.67
⁦+0.8%⁩
Current Price $56.22·Median $57.00
Low
$55.00
High
$58.00
Current price
$56.22
Average target
$56.67
Street summary

Consensus Target Rises as Coverage Declines

The consensus price target rose from 53.67 to 56.67 over the last 30 days, an increase of $3 or 5.59%. However, it remained unchanged over the last 7 days, while the number of analysts covered declined from two analysts to one analyst, reducing the reliability of the consensus and increasing uncertainty around the true dispersion of estimates. The current price of 57.68 is above the consensus target and the median of 57, and close to the upper bound of 58.

As of 2026-09-04
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.29
Hold
Analyst coverage
⁦7 (-1)⁩
Buy conviction
14%
Target dispersion
5%
Analyst ratings over time7 analysts rating
1
6
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.57 → 3.29
Recent analyst moves
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  • = Reiterate2026-05-19
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    —· $53.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    12.49x
    3.16x25.26x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    14.59x
    2.76x22.06x
    Above average
  • EV / EBITDA
    16.87x
    3.07x24.55x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    3.2%
    -19.9%19.1%
    Above average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -19.2%
    -36.3%104.2%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    15.4%
    -99.4%194.2%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    97.9%
    23.5%98.3%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    7.6%
    -36.5%24.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    5.46x
    0.25x7.31x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    7.5%
    0.6%9.0%
    High
  • Payout Ratio
    93.2%
    9.8%97.8%
    High
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-07 data

Company Overview

Main Street Capital Corporation operates as an investment and financing company focused on providing debt and equity investments to lower middle market companies, alongside a private loan portfolio and asset management operations through External Investment Manager. Its strategy combines first-lien debt with equity positions that allow it to generate interest income, fees, and dividends, as well as capital gains upon exit. As of June 30, 2026, the portfolio included 191 companies: 94 lower middle market companies with a fair value of $3.2 billion and 86 companies in private loans with a value of $2.1 billion, while assets under management at External Investment Manager totaled approximately $1.8 billion.

In fiscal Q2 2026, total investment income reached $149.6 million, an increase of 3.9% year over year and 6.8% compared with fiscal Q1 2026, while the financial statements reported net income of $147.6 million and earnings per share of $1.58. Interest income increased by $11.8 million year over year due to growth in income-producing investments, but dividend income declined by $10.4 million year over year, and operating expenses increased by $5.1 million. Pre-tax distributable net investment income was $1.08 per share, and annualized return on equity reached 18.9%.

Net asset value rose to a record $33.92 per share at the end of fiscal Q2 2026, up 1.4% from the previous quarter and 5% from the comparable period. The company recorded a net fair-value appreciation of $65 million, including realized and unrealized gains, and generated net realized gains of $33 million, primarily driven by the exit from Centre Technologies. At the same time, non-accrual investments remained at 1.1% of the portfolio at fair value and 4% at cost, demonstrating that the strength of the results was accompanied by continued credit risk in a limited portion of the assets.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The exit from Centre Technologies generated a realized gain exceeding $46 million, alongside cumulative dividends of $2 million, an annual internal rate of return of 40%, and a 9 times multiple on invested capital; this exit was the main contributor to the $33 million in net realized gains during fiscal Q2 2026.
  • Three exits from lower middle market equity investments, including Mystic Logistics, KBK Industries, and Centre Technologies, generated realized gains of approximately $88 million during fiscal Q4 2025 and the first half of fiscal 2026. These gains support the ability of the combined debt-and-equity model to offset potential credit losses and provide capital for distributions.
  • New private loan investments totaled $239 million in fiscal Q2 2026, and the portfolio generated net growth of $60 million despite increased early repayments. By contrast, the company invested approximately $100 million in the lower middle market, including $46 million in two new companies, but exits and repayments led to a net decline of $31 million in this portfolio.
  • The board of directors approved a supplemental distribution of $0.30 per share payable in September 2026, marking the twentieth consecutive quarterly supplemental distribution, alongside monthly distributions of $0.265 per share for fiscal Q4 2026, an increase of 3.9% from the comparable period. Total supplemental distributions during the twelve months ended with the August 2026 declaration were approximately $1.20 per share, equivalent to 38% above regular monthly distributions.
  • The company entered fiscal Q3 2026 with $1.2 billion of liquidity from cash and unused capacity under credit facilities, after increasing commitments under the corporate facility by $65 million to $1.24 billion and extending its maturity to June 2031. Regulatory leverage was 0.69 times, below the long-term target range of 0.8 to 0.9 times, leaving room to finance additional investment opportunities.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Main Street Capital's model provides a combination of interest income and relative protection through first-lien debt, with the potential to generate dividends and capital gains from equity positions; the exits from Mystic Logistics, KBK Industries, and Centre Technologies demonstrated this with total realized gains of approximately $88 million.
  • +The portfolio is highly diversified; the largest company in the portfolio, excluding External Investment Manager, accounted for only 3.9% of investment income during the twelve months ended June 30, 2026, and 3.5% of the portfolio's fair value, while most investments represented less than 1% of income and assets.
  • +Net asset value rose to $33.92 per share at the end of fiscal Q2 2026, and the company recorded net fair-value appreciation of $65 million and an annualized return on equity of 18.9%, reflecting the contribution of capital gains alongside investment income.
  • +The financial position supports the ability to continue investing; liquidity totaled $1.2 billion, the regulatory asset coverage ratio was 2.44 times, and the next fixed maturity after repayment of the July 2026 notes was only $400 million in June 2027.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The average analyst target is $56.67, within a narrow range of $55 to $58, accompanied by a "Neutral" consensus rather than a "Buy" consensus. This average is approximately 15.8% below the 52-week range high of $67.34 and approximately 15.8% above the range low of $48.95, balancing the improvement in net asset value and distributions on one hand against expense pressure and the lower distributable investment income outlook for fiscal Q3 2026 on the other.

HoldAnalyst target: $56.67(+0.8%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

How does Main Street Capital generate revenue and profits?

Main Street Capital generates income from interest on debt investments, fees from investment activities, dividends from equity positions, as well as asset management fees and gains upon exit. In fiscal Q2 2026, total investment income reached $149.6 million, and interest income increased by $11.8 million year over year. External Investment Manager contributed $8.7 million to net investment income, while its assets under management totaled $1.8 billion. The exit from Centre Technologies also added a realized gain exceeding $46 million.

What distinguished MAIN's fiscal Q2 2026 results?

Total investment income reached $149.6 million, an increase of 3.9% year over year and 6.8% from fiscal Q1 2026. The financial statements reported net income of $147.6 million and earnings per share of $1.58, while pre-tax distributable net investment income was $1.08 per share. Net asset value rose to a record $33.92 per share, and annualized return on equity reached 18.9%. By contrast, operating expenses increased by $5.1 million year over year, and dividend income declined by $10.4 million.

Are MAIN's distributions supported by its fiscal Q2 2026 results?

The board of directors approved a supplemental distribution of $0.30 per share payable in September 2026, marking the twentieth consecutive quarterly supplemental distribution. It also approved monthly distributions of $0.265 per share for fiscal Q4 2026, an increase of 3.9% from the comparable period. Total supplemental distributions during the twelve months ended with the August 2026 declaration were approximately $1.20 per share, or 38% above regular monthly distributions. Management links supplemental distributions to pre-tax distributable net investment income exceeding monthly distributions, the generation of net gains, and stable or rising net asset value.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Management expects pre-tax distributable net investment income in fiscal Q3 2026 to be no less than $0.97 per share, compared with $1.08 in fiscal Q2 2026, due to an expected decline in non-recurring income and a higher cost of capital following the refinancing of the July 2026 notes.
  • −Operating expenses in fiscal Q2 2026 increased by $5.1 million year over year and $3.5 million sequentially, driven by higher interest and compensation expenses. Net investment income missed analysts' estimates due to higher operating expenses, demonstrating that growth in investment income may not fully translate into distributable income.
  • −Dividend income declined by $10.4 million compared with fiscal Q2 2025 due to exits from lower middle market companies, changes in company performance, and capital allocation decisions. Management also explained that some portfolio companies may prioritize growth or adopt a more conservative approach instead of paying dividends, making this income source volatile between quarters.
  • −Credit risk remains because the investments target non-investment-grade debt; non-accrual assets represented 1.1% of the portfolio at fair value and 4% at cost as of June 30, 2026. Management also noted a widening gap between outperforming and distressed companies, with distress cases becoming more severe under the impact of economic uncertainty.
  • −The company raised net proceeds of $18.8 million from share issuances through its at-the-market offering program during fiscal Q2 2026 to finance investments. Additional issuances could dilute shareholders' interests if the new capital does not convert into distributable income per share at the required rate.
  • −The analyst consensus carries a "Neutral" rating, with a narrow target range of $55 to $58 and an average of $56.67. The average is approximately 15.8% below the 52-week range high of $67.34, reflecting a more conservative assessment than the stock's highest levels during that period.
How much credit risk is present in Main Street Capital's portfolio?

Non-accrual investments as of June 30, 2026, represented approximately 1.1% of the total portfolio at fair value and 4% at cost. The portfolio includes 191 companies across multiple industries and end markets, and most investments represented less than 1% of income and assets. Nevertheless, management explained during the August 7, 2026 call that the gap between outperforming and distressed companies had widened, despite no common sector pattern being identified behind the distress. Non-investment-grade corporate debt remains exposed to credit losses even with diversification and first-lien protections.

What is the importance of equity investments in MAIN's strategy?

Equity positions provide Main Street Capital with dividend income and the opportunity to generate value appreciation and gains upon exit, alongside income from first-lien debt. During fiscal Q4 2025 and the first half of fiscal 2026, exits from Mystic Logistics, KBK Industries, and Centre Technologies generated realized gains of approximately $88 million. The annual internal rate of return on the Centre Technologies investment was approximately 40% with a 9 times multiple, while the return on KBK Industries was approximately 127% with a 63 times multiple. These gains help offset potential credit losses and finance distributions, but they are inherently irregular between quarters.

What do MAIN's liquidity and leverage look like after fiscal Q2 2026?

The company entered fiscal Q3 2026 with $1.2 billion of liquidity from cash and available capacity under credit facilities. Regulatory leverage was 0.69 times, compared with a long-term target range of 0.8 to 0.9 times, and the asset coverage ratio was 2.44 times. The company issued $150 million of unsecured private notes due in April 2031 with an interest rate of 6.93%, and it increased commitments under the corporate facility to $1.24 billion. After repaying the $500 million July 2026 notes, the next fixed maturity became $400 million in June 2027.