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Stocks
Mastercard Incorporated
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall70
Strong — clearly above market medianHigh FlyerF 7/8Better than 70% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
22
31.8x▼18.2xBottom tier
▸
Growth
75
16.0%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
100
——Top tier
▸
Safety
15
——Bottom tier
▸
Capital Return
50
0.58%▼2.10%Around median
▸
Momentum
69
-3.3%▼2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
66
25▲3Top tier
MA

MA Mastercard Incorporated

Mastercard Incorporated · NYSE
Market Open
570.89
▼ ⁦-1.44%⁩ (-8.32)
Market Cap$508.0B
Beta0.73
52w Low52w High
464.52601.62
Last Week
⁦-3.13%⁩
Last Month
⁦+1.41%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+17.55%⁩
Last Year
⁦-2.28%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$568
Analyst target · 11 analysts
$675
⁦+19%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$597–$740⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$365
⁦-36%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦4⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$365–$675⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 11 analysts setting price target
$670.94
⁦+17.5%⁩
Current Price $570.89·Median $675.00
Low
$597.00
High
$740.00
Current price
$570.89
Average target
$670.94
Street summary

Slight Improvement in Mastercard’s Price Targets While Dispersion Remains High

Bullish tilt

Mastercard’s consensus price target rose over the last 30 days from 662.73 to 670.94, an increase of 8.21 or 1.24%, while the number of analysts remained at 11. There was no change over the last 7 days. The median target is 675, while the range is between 597 and 740 compared with the current price of 579.21, indicating an overall positive bias alongside clear dispersion among estimates.

As of 2026-09-07
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+1.2%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.15
Buy
Analyst coverage
40
Buy conviction
93%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
25%
Analyst ratings over time40 analysts rating
9
28
3
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.79 → 4.15
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-31
    RBC Capital
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-25
    Wolfe Research
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-03
    Cantor Fitzgerald
    Overweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    31.84x
    3.18x25.46x
    Above average
  • Forward P/E
    27.49x
    2.82x22.58x
    Very expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    24.27x
    3.09x24.71x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    3.3%
    -20.5%18.5%
    Above average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    16.0%
    -36.0%104.4%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    22.7%
    -99.4%194.2%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    100.0%
    23.5%98.3%
    Exceptional
  • ROIC
    56.3%
    -36.5%24.8%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.65x
    0.25x7.21x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    0.6%
    0.6%8.8%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    18.4%
    9.8%97.9%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-30 data

Company Overview

Mastercard operates a global payments network connecting card issuers, merchants, and service providers, and generates revenue from processing domestic and cross-border transactions and from value-added services including cybersecurity, fraud prevention, identity verification, data, marketing, and consulting. Its switched penetration rate reached 72%, and the number of Mastercard and Maestro cards issued worldwide reached 3.7 billion, while about 60% of net revenue from value-added services is linked to the network, allowing the company to cross-sell additional services based on transaction data and its customer relationships.

In Q2 of fiscal year 2026, Mastercard reported revenue of $9.3 billion, net income of $4.4 billion, and EDGAR EPS of $4.97. Adjusted EPS was $5.04 versus expectations of $4.77, while net revenue increased 12% and adjusted net income increased 16% year over year and on a constant-currency basis, and the reported net margin was 46.3%. Growth came from both sides of the business; net payment network revenue increased 8%, compared with 18% growth in net revenue from value-added services and solutions.

Worldwide gross dollar volume increased 8% in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, cross-border volume increased 12%, and switched transactions grew 9%. Contactless payments reached 80% of switched in-person purchase transactions, up 5 percentage points annually, while tokenization penetration exceeded 40% of all switched transactions. The company also repurchased $4.9 billion of shares during the quarter, followed by about an additional $700 million through July 27, 2026.

What's Driving the Stock

  • On July 30, 2026, Mastercard raised its implied outlook within the announced range, and now expects fiscal year 2026 net revenue growth at the high end of the low-teens range on a constant-currency basis, driven by first-half performance that was stronger than it had expected.
  • Cross-border spending remained a key driver in Q2 of fiscal year 2026; volume grew 12%, and cross-border transaction assessments increased 20% due to volume, pricing, and mix, while non-travel card-not-present cross-border spending grew 20%.
  • Mastercard secured several hundred portfolio conversions and deal expansions during the first half of fiscal year 2026, and expects these wins to add trillions of dollars in volume to the network over the next decade. Examples include the renewal of Chase Freedom Flex, a near-exclusive renewal with Banamex covering approximately 19 million cards, and the addition of more than one million cards through Alliance Federal Credit Union and Eurobank.
  • Revenue from value-added services and solutions grew 18% in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, supported by demand for security, digital solutions, and authentication. Mastercard Threat Intelligence alone identified more than 7 million card-testing transactions in 192 countries during its first three quarters of operation and helped prevent an estimated $172 million in fraud linked to malicious domains.
  • The digital assets business is expanding through Mastercard Agent Pay, Agent Pay for Machines, and stablecoin-related partnerships; the volume of co-branded cards with cryptocurrency companies has more than tripled over two years. On August 26, 2026, BNB Chain joined the cryptocurrency partner program, while management said on July 30, 2026, that it expected to close the $1.8 billion BVNK acquisition during Q3 of fiscal year 2026.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The structural growth opportunity is based on the fact that only one-third of consumer transactions were conducted through cards, according to Mastercard's Investor Day presentation, with a larger opportunity in commercial flows. In Mexico, where more than 70% of consumer payments are still made in cash, the exclusive partnership with Alipay+ and Clip combines a network of nearly one million merchants with digital wallets using Mastercard credentials.
  • +Increasing switched penetration to 72% strengthens the company's proprietary economic flywheel: more transactions generate more data, which then enables the sale of security, identity, and analytics services through the network. This is supported by 3.7 billion cards and the net addition of more than 230 million Mastercard cards during the twelve months ended in Q2 of fiscal year 2026.
  • +Q2 of fiscal year 2026 demonstrates a strong ability to convert transaction growth into earnings; net revenue increased 12%, adjusted operating income 14%, adjusted net income 16%, and adjusted EPS 19%. Adjusted EPS also exceeded expectations by about 6%, at $5.04 versus $4.77.
  • +The 18% growth in value-added services gives Mastercard a driver beyond traditional processing fees, particularly in cybersecurity, identity, and fraud prevention. The Mastercard Advantage program, which included more than 200 partners, expands the distribution channels for these services and the opportunities to increase the number of products and contract value per customer.

Valuation

The analyst consensus is Buy, with an average price target of $667.56 and a wide range of $597 to $740; the average is above the 52-week range high of $601.62, while the low is $464.52. In contrast, the July 31, 2026 valuation showed a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.4 times and an enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiple of 23.8 times, reflecting a quality premium that requires continued double-digit growth. Goldman Sachs raised its target to $701 from $674 while maintaining its Buy rating following the Q2 fiscal year 2026 results, but the wide target range underscores differing analyst estimates of how much growth justifies these multiples.

BuyAnalyst target: $667.56(+16.9%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What were Mastercard's key results in Q2 of fiscal year 2026?

Revenue was $9.3 billion, net income was $4.4 billion, and EDGAR EPS was approximately $4.97. Adjusted EPS was $5.04 versus expectations of $4.77, while net revenue increased 12% year over year and on a constant-currency basis. Net payment network revenue also grew 8%, value-added services and solutions grew 18%, and the reported net margin was 46.3%.

What is driving Mastercard's cross-border transaction growth?

Cross-border transaction volume grew 12% in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, while related assessments increased 20% due to volume, pricing, and mix. Outbound travel from affected Gulf countries improved as flight capacity increased, while dollar availability in Venezuela supported non-travel card-not-present spending. This latter type of cross-border spending recorded growth of 20%, with Mastercard benefiting from its leading position in Venezuela's primarily debit-card-based market.

How does Mastercard benefit from cybersecurity and artificial intelligence?

The company's portfolio combines card fraud prevention, identity verification, and threat intelligence, and was strengthened by Recorded Future's capabilities and the launch of Mastercard Threat Intelligence. During its first three quarters of operation, the product identified more than 7 million card-testing transactions in 192 countries and helped prevent an estimated $172 million in fraud. The company also launched Mastercard Merchant Trust Services to use AI-powered capabilities to detect fraudulent merchants before they generate disputes and losses.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −Competition in Europe remains intense among card networks, wallets, domestic schemes, and the digital euro under development. Management explained that it refrained from pursuing some deals when they did not deliver an appropriate economic return, including the Lloyds credit portfolio, which protects profitability but allows some volume to leave the network.
  • −European purchase-volume growth slowed compared with the 16% recorded in Q2 of fiscal year 2024, as the impact of previous wins such as Santander, NatWest, and UniCredit ended and some volume exited. This means tougher comparisons and a lower contribution from portfolio conversions may limit the acceleration of regional growth even as the underlying business continues.
  • −Adjusted operating expenses increased 10% in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, and the company expects low-teens growth during Q3 and fiscal year 2026. It also expects incentives and rebates as a percentage of payment network assessments to increase in Q3 compared with Q2, and approximately $125 million in other expenses due to higher interest costs, which may pressure margin expansion.
  • −Results remain exposed to geopolitical tensions and changes in travel and energy patterns; the improvement in Q2 of fiscal year 2026 was supported in part by the impact of Middle East disruptions being lower than expected. For the remainder of fiscal year 2026, the company assumed that the impact of the conflict would remain near its level at the end of the quarter, but described the regional environment as fluid.
  • −Expansion in digital assets increases regulatory and execution exposure, particularly with the $1.8 billion BVNK deal and delays in cryptocurrency and stablecoin legislation in Washington through August 2026. Management also acknowledged that stablecoins do not address every use case and that the ecosystem may include multiple currencies and chains, increasing the importance of achieving interoperability and compliance across different markets.
  • −The valuation reported on July 31, 2026, was elevated at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.4 times and an enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiple of 23.8 times, with a free cash flow yield of 3.4% and a price-to-sales multiple of 14.40 times. These multiples increase the stock's sensitivity to any slowdown in cross-border transactions, value-added services, or earnings growth.
What is the importance of BVNK and BNB Chain to Mastercard's digital assets strategy?

Management said on July 30, 2026, that it expected to close the $1.8 billion BVNK acquisition during Q3 of fiscal year 2026. BVNK is intended to enable customers to send, receive, store, and convert assets through an interoperability layer, while BNB Chain joined the cryptocurrency partner program on August 26, 2026. These initiatives complement Mastercard Agent Pay and Agent Pay for Machines, at a time when the volume of co-branded cards with cryptocurrency companies has more than tripled over two years.

What announced executive finance changes have taken place at Mastercard?

The July 30, 2026 call stated that Sachin Mehra was delivering his final earnings call as Chief Financial Officer, as he transitioned to the role of Chief Business Officer. The company announced that Ling Hai, who had been President of Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, would become Chief Financial Officer effective August 3, 2026. Michael Miebach remained Chief Executive Officer and led the presentation of the payments, services, and digital assets strategy during the Q2 fiscal year 2026 call.