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LyondellBasell Industries N.V.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall44
Weak — below market medianTurnaroundF 3/9Grey zoneBetter than 44% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
88
—17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
15
-1.7%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
22
3.2%▼4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
46
3.8x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
29
6.47%▲2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
61
4.9%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
82
10▲3Top tier
LYB

LYB LyondellBasell Industries N.V.

LyondellBasell Industries N.V. · NYSE
Market Closed
63.71
▼ ⁦-0.92%⁩ (-0.59)
Market Cap$20.6B
Beta0.35
52w Low52w High
41.5883.94
Last Week
⁦-2.24%⁩
Last Month
⁦+3.69%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-5.11%⁩
Last Year
⁦+14.05%⁩
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$64
Analyst target · 4 analysts
$69
⁦+8%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$62–$83⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$110
⁦+73%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦9⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$69–$110⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 4 analysts setting price target
$69.63
⁦+9.3%⁩
Current Price $63.71·Median $69.00
Low
$62.00
High
$83.00
Current price
$63.71
Average target
$69.63
Street summary

Slight Decline in Targets and Increased Uncertainty

Bearish tilt

The average price target fell to 69.63 from 70.60 over 7 days, and to 69.63 from 70.82 over 30 days, declining by 1.37% and 1.68%, respectively. The number of analysts also decreased from 10 to 4, making the comparison less representative and increasing uncertainty. The current range is between 62 and 83, versus a current price of 63.71, reflecting a clear divergence among estimates.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-1.7%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.39
Hold
Analyst coverage
⁦18 (-6)⁩
Buy conviction
39%
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
33%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time18 analysts rating
4
3
8
2
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.26 → 3.39
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-11
    KeyBanc
    OverweightSector Weight
  • = Reiterate2026-08-05
    RBC Capital
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-04
    UBS
    Neutral
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    —
    —
  • Forward P/E
    6.10x
    3.70x29.59x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    13.02x
    2.62x20.92x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    7.7%
    -21.3%8.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -1.7%
    -21.2%90.4%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -250.7%
    -249.5%198.4%
    Weak
  • Gross Margin
    12.8%
    7.6%58.9%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    3.2%
    -52.6%20.2%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    3.80x
    0.22x3.72x
    Above average
  • Dividend Yield
    6.5%
    0.2%5.5%
    High
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    1.96
    -11.4212.56
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-31 data

Company Overview

LyondellBasell Industries N.V. operates through an integrated portfolio of olefins and polyolefins in the Americas, Europe, Asia, and international markets, alongside intermediates and derivatives, advanced polymer solutions, and licensing and catalyst technologies. Earnings depend on polyethylene and polypropylene spreads, feedstock costs, and plant operating rates, while the Oxyfuels business benefits from the cost spread between butane and methanol versus crude oil and from gasoline refining margins; the company produces approximately 75% of Oxyfuels in the United States. Following the sale of four European assets in May 2026, 80% of global ethylene capacity became linked to competitively priced feedstocks, while the company continues to steer its portfolio toward higher-value applications and circular and low-carbon solutions.

In Q2 FY2026, revenue was $9.2 billion, gross profit was $2.0 billion, net income was $559 million, and earnings per share according to EDGAR were approximately $1.71; this equates to a gross profit margin of approximately 21.7% and a net income margin of approximately 6.1%. Based on the adjusted results presented by management, diluted earnings per share were $4.30 and EBITDA was approximately $2.1 billion, more than three times the previous quarter, while the EBITDA margin reached 23%. Segment EBITDA was led by O&P Americas at $1.3 billion, followed by I&D at $386 million, O&P Europe, Asia & International at $331 million, APS at $78 million, and Technology at $74 million.

Q2 FY2026 results reflect a sharp improvement from Q1 FY2026, when the company recorded revenue of $7.2 billion and net income of $125 million. Nevertheless, profitability remains cyclical and volatile; FY2025 revenue was $30.2 billion, with a net loss of $738 million. The company ended Q2 FY2026 with $2.6 billion in cash and $7.1 billion in available liquidity, after generating $752 million in operating cash flow, spending $270 million on capital expenditures, and distributing $224 million to shareholders.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Supply disruptions related to the conflict in the Middle East affected what the company estimates to be approximately 6 million tons of polyethylene capacity, or 20% to 25% of the region’s supply, with this capacity not expected to return before at least 2027; this contributed to a $0.30 per pound increase in the polyethylene contract price in April 2026 and drove O&P Americas EBITDA to $1.3 billion, approximately four times its level a year earlier.
  • O&P Americas cracker operating rates were approximately 95% in Q2 FY2026, while domestic North American polyethylene sales rose by approximately 3.5% to their highest quarterly level since Q1 FY2022. The polypropylene-to-propylene spread also widened by $0.07 per pound beginning in April 2026, and the company announced a $0.10 per pound increase in the polyethylene price for August 2026.
  • Chinese polyethylene inventories fell by approximately 30% from pre-conflict levels, while domestic operating rates remained in the mid-70% range. Management believes China’s return to imports to rebuild inventory could support prices, but this driver depends on global inventories remaining constrained and supply not recovering quickly.
  • The Bayport PO/TBA asset restarted and reached full operating rates in June 2026 after the unplanned outage reduced I&D segment EBITDA by approximately $250 million during Q2 FY2026. The company is targeting an I&D operating rate of approximately 85% in Q3 FY2026, with Oxyfuels and propylene oxide derivatives volumes expected to improve following the asset’s return.
  • The cash improvement plan targets an additional $500 million in cash flow by the end of FY2026 through reductions in fixed costs and capital expenditures. The company has reduced its workforce by approximately 3,400 employees, or 17% of the workforce, since the beginning of FY2025, while maintaining its FY2026 capital expenditure plan at $1.2 billion and expecting sustaining capital expenditures to decline by approximately $100 million following the sale of the four European assets.
  • Construction of the MoReTec 1 facility in Wesseling is progressing according to plan, with startup targeted for the end of FY2027, and management says the vast majority of its capacity has been presold under agreements with brand owners. The project supports LyondellBasell’s shift toward circular and low-carbon solutions, while the MoReTec 2 project in the United States was deferred because of the priority given to the cash improvement plan and slower regulatory development compared with Europe.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case5 pts

  • +LyondellBasell’s portfolio demonstrated strong operating capability when market conditions improved; it achieved a 23% EBITDA margin in Q2 FY2026, while the adjusted O&P Americas margin reached 36%, despite losing approximately $250 million of EBITDA due to the Bayport PO/TBA outage.
  • +Having 80% of global ethylene capacity concentrated in assets linked to competitive feedstocks, alongside Americas cracker operating rates of approximately 95% in Q2 FY2026, provides operating leverage that allows the company to capture increases in margins and production more fully.
  • +The company has meaningful financial flexibility, with $2.6 billion in cash and $7.1 billion in available liquidity at the end of Q2 FY2026, and an EBITDA-to-cash conversion rate of 80% during the twelve months preceding the call, consistent with its long-term target.
  • +The plan to add $500 million to cash flow by the end of FY2026, together with an approximately $100 million reduction in sustaining capital expenditures following the sale of four European assets, provides a path to cash improvement that does not depend entirely on exceptional petrochemical prices continuing.
  • +The Oxyfuels business provides the company with a differentiated source of earnings; it produces approximately 75% of these products in the United States using butane and methanol, and management estimates that every $1 per barrel change in crude oil alters the Oxyfuels business’s annual earnings by approximately $20 million.

Valuation

The average analyst target is $70.82, with a “Buy” consensus and a target range between $62 and $83; the highest target is very close to the top of the 52-week range of $83.94, while the lowest target remains clearly above the bottom of the range of $41.58. No meaningful price-to-earnings multiple is available in the data because of the losses recorded in FY2025 and the latest twelve-month period, so the valuation is largely tied to the sustainability of the margin recovery and the cash improvement plan, while the wide target range remains evidence of uncertainty.

BuyAnalyst target: $70.82(+11.2%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove LYB’s results in Q2 FY2026?

LyondellBasell reported revenue of approximately $9.2 billion, net income of $559 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $2.1 billion in Q2 FY2026. The company benefited from the Middle East supply disruption, which raised the polyethylene contract price by $0.30 per pound in April 2026, alongside lower ethane and natural gas costs and higher co-product prices. O&P Americas alone generated EBITDA of $1.3 billion and an adjusted margin of 36%, with cracker operating rates of approximately 95%.

Can LyondellBasell’s elevated margins continue after Q2 FY2026?

Management believes the recovery of petrochemical supplies will take several quarters and estimates that approximately 6 million tons of affected polyethylene capacity in the Middle East will not return before at least 2027. Chinese polyethylene inventories have also declined by approximately 30% from their pre-conflict level, which may require imports to resume in order to rebuild them. Conversely, the company expects O&P Americas operating rates to decline to 85% and O&P Europe, Asia & International operating rates to decline to 70% in Q3 FY2026, so earnings may differ from the exceptional Q2 level.

What is the impact of the Bayport PO/TBA return on LYB’s earnings?

The unplanned Bayport PO/TBA outage reduced I&D segment EBITDA by approximately $250 million in Q2 FY2026. The company restarted the asset and brought it to full rates in June 2026, allowing volumes of propylene oxide derivatives and MTBE to increase. Management is targeting an operating rate of approximately 85% for the I&D segment in Q3 FY2026, but explained that the $250 million cannot be automatically added to the following quarter’s earnings because of changes in oil prices and gasoline margins.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −The surge in earnings may partially reverse as supply recovers and inventories are rebuilt; management described the market’s return to normal as a process measured over several quarters, but it also expects consumption to recover to its pre-conflict trajectory during the year following the call. Therefore, the 23% EBITDA margin in Q2 FY2026 does not necessarily represent a sustainable through-cycle level.
  • −Chinese producers have demonstrated their ability to respond to higher prices by reducing imports, increasing exports to Southeast Asia, and raising coal-to-olefins production, despite operating rates remaining in the mid-70% range. If production rates rise or exports resume before China needs to rebuild its inventories, which are down approximately 30%, the expected price support could weaken.
  • −The company expects O&P Americas operating rates to decline to approximately 85% in Q3 FY2026 because of Clinton maintenance lasting approximately 70 days and the Lake Charles outage, which begins in the second half of the quarter and extends into Q4 FY2026. It is also targeting an O&P Europe, Asia & International operating rate of approximately 70%, with a possible additional decline if low Rhine River water levels persist.
  • −The Technology segment faces a slowdown after recording EBITDA of $74 million in Q2 FY2026; management expects catalyst demand to return to normal levels following heavy shipments in the first half and describes new licensing opportunities as nearly nonexistent because of the significant expected slowdown in polyolefin capacity growth near the end of the decade.
  • −The APS segment faces dual pressure in Q3 FY2026 from the seasonal decline in demand from automotive and other end markets and from persistently high raw material costs related to supply disruptions. Although segment EBITDA in the first half of FY2026 increased by more than 50% year over year, Q2 FY2026 EBITDA was only $78 million.
  • −The FY2025 loss of $738 million and the net loss of $293 million for the latest twelve-month period reported in EDGAR reflect volatile profitability and the absence of a meaningful price-to-earnings multiple in the data. The wide range of analyst targets between $62 and $83, compared with a 52-week range between $41.58 and $83.94, also reveals the valuation’s sensitivity to the trajectory of margins and geopolitical supply conditions.
How does LyondellBasell’s cash improvement plan work?

The plan targets an additional $500 million in cash flow by the end of FY2026, driven primarily by reductions in fixed costs and capital expenditures. The company has reduced its workforce by approximately 3,400 employees, or 17%, since the beginning of FY2025 and reduced its management structure by approximately 30%. In Q2 FY2026, it generated $752 million in operating cash flow while maintaining its annual capital expenditure plan at $1.2 billion.

How important is MoReTec 1 to LYB’s strategy?

MoReTec 1 is a facility in Wesseling dedicated to supporting LyondellBasell’s circular and low-carbon solutions, with startup targeted for the end of FY2027. Management stated that the vast majority of the facility’s capacity has been presold through agreements with brand owners and that the expected value exceeded the assumptions from the March 2023 Capital Markets Day. Conversely, the MoReTec 2 project in the United States was deferred because of the priority given to the cash improvement plan and the slower development of regulatory frameworks compared with Europe.

What are the main operational risks facing LYB stock in the second half of FY2026?

Risks include Clinton maintenance lasting approximately 70 days, the Lake Charles outage extending from Q3 into Q4 FY2026, and the potential impact of low Rhine River water levels on European asset operations. Reliability issues at the synthesis gas unit in La Porte also continue to affect acetic acid and VAM production, despite the target of returning to full rates during Q3 FY2026. Additional risks include seasonal moderation in automotive demand and raw material cost pressure in APS, as well as the expected decline in Technology segment EBITDA from the $74 million recorded in Q2.