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Landstar System, Inc.
LSTR

LSTR Landstar System, Inc.

Landstar System, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
172.78
▼ ⁦-0.53%⁩ (-0.92)
Market Cap$5.9B
Beta0.89
52w Low52w High
119.32228.46
Last Week
⁦-1.10%⁩
Last Month
⁦-3.12%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-18.86%⁩
Last Year
⁦+30.57%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall61
Balanced — near the middle of the marketHigh FlyerF 5/9Better than 61% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
33
44.8x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
16
4.1%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
62
12.8%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
82
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
60
2.06%2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
64
38.8%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
63
11▲3Around median
Fair Value
Current price$173
Analyst target · 8 analysts
$196
⁦+13%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$181–$240⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$97
⁦-44%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦8.3⁩% discount · ⁦2⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$97–$196⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 8 analysts setting price target
$203.40
⁦+17.7%⁩
Current Price $172.78·Median $196.00
Low
$181.00
High
$240.00
Current price
$172.78
Average target
$203.40
Street summary

Landstar System (LSTR) Price Target Revision Analysis

Bullish tilt

Landstar System stock saw a 4.08% improvement in its average price target over the past thirty days, with the consensus rising from 195.43 to 203.4 dollars. This change reflects cautious optimism, especially since the current price (177.74 dollars) is trading below the lowest price target set by analysts (181 dollars), indicating a price gap in favor of the upside according to current market estimates.

As of 2026-08-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.00
Hold
Analyst coverage
18
Buy conviction
22%
Target dispersion
34%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time18 analysts rating
4
11
2
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months2.89 → 3.00
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-08-04
    Wolfe Research
    Peer PerformOutperform
  • = Reiterate2026-07-29
    UBS
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-07-28
    TD Cowen
    Hold
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    44.76x
    5.69x45.54x
    Above average
  • Forward P/E
    27.61x
    4.57x36.58x
    Above average
  • EV / EBITDA
    26.47x
    3.43x27.47x
    Expensive
  • FCF Yield
    3.1%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    4.1%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -19.1%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    12.3%
    8.6%54.6%
    Weak
  • ROIC
    12.8%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    2.1%
    0.1%4.8%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    92.2%
    6.6%80.8%
    High
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-28 data

Company Overview

Landstar System, Inc. operates through a transportation and logistics services model that relies on a network of independent agents and independent BCO truck operators, along with the use of third-party carriers in brokerage operations. Revenue comes from truckload transportation, including flatbed equipment, specialized heavy-haul freight, and van equipment, as well as non-truck services such as air freight and intermodal transportation. The variable-cost structure reduces the need to own a full operating fleet, while the model’s success depends on agents’ ability to attract freight and the availability of safe capacity within the network.

In quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, revenue calculated from gross profit and margin was approximately $1.44 billion, up 18% year over year. Gross profit increased to $132.3 million from $109.3 million, and its margin improved to 9.2% from 9.0%, while variable contribution rose to $199.4 million from $170.5 million, but its margin declined to 13.9% from 14.1%. The call did not include a figure for quarterly net income, while EDGAR data for quarter 1 of fiscal year 2026 showed net income of $39.4 million and earnings per share of $1.16.

Transportation Logistics segment revenue increased 18% in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, driven by a 16% increase in revenue per load and a 2% increase in volume. Heavy-haul freight generated $164 million, up 18%, driven by a 9% increase in volumes and an 8% increase in revenue per load, while non-truck transportation services revenue increased 6%, or $5 million, due to a 50% jump in revenue per air freight load and a 16% increase in intermodal pricing. The five largest commodity categories accounted for approximately 69% of transportation revenue, but were spread across more than 20 thousand customers, and no customer contributed more than 8% of revenue during the first half of fiscal year 2026.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Truck revenue per load increased 17% year over year and 14.4% sequentially in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, representing the largest quarterly increase in 15 years; revenue per mile for BCO loads also increased 10% for flatbed equipment and 11% for van equipment.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Heavy-haul freight remained a key driver, with revenue of $164 million and growth of 18% in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, as 22 customers increased their volumes by at least 50 loads each across sectors including data centers, aviation, defense, and energy.
  • July data from quarter 3 of fiscal year 2026 showed that the number of truckloads increased by approximately 5% and revenue per load by approximately 26% compared with July of fiscal year 2025, with pricing outperforming its normal seasonality by approximately 150 basis points.
  • The BCO network added a net 68 trucks in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, followed by another 49 trucks during the four-week July period, while the 12-month truck turnover rate declined to 28.3% from 31.4% at the end of fiscal year 2025, and BCO utilization increased 12% year over year and 8% sequentially.
  • A Midwestern freight broker with annual business volume of $18 million joined the agent network in July 2026, representing one of the largest agent additions in 15 years. Landstar also plans to deploy repeatable AI applications within agent offices beginning in the middle of quarter 3 of fiscal year 2026 to improve information retrieval, exception handling, and data visibility.
  • The company returned approximately $120 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases during the first half of fiscal year 2026 and increased its quarterly dividend 10% to $0.44 per share, while retaining $348 million in cash and short-term investments at the end of quarter 2.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case5 pts

    • +Revenue growth of 18% and a 17% increase in truck revenue per load in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 indicate that Landstar is benefiting directly from the freight market shifting in favor of transportation providers after a multiyear downturn.
    • +Heavy-haul freight represents a distinct growth advantage for the company; it combined 9% volume growth with 8% revenue-per-load growth, and demand was spread across data centers, aviation, defense, and energy rather than depending on a single customer or activity.
    • +The network’s operating capacity is improving alongside the market, as the company achieved its strongest quarterly increase in the number of BCO trucks since quarter 1 of fiscal year 2022, while turnover declined for ten consecutive quarters to 28.3%.
    • +A base of more than 20 thousand customers, with no customer contributing more than 8% of revenue during the first half of fiscal year 2026, provides diversification that limits the impact of losing a single account.
    • +The $348 million balance of cash and short-term investments supports the company’s ability to invest in technology and trailer equipment and repurchase shares, despite the temporary working-capital draw in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Insurance and claims costs increased to $39.4 million in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 from $30.4 million and reached 7.0% of BCO revenue versus 6.6% a year earlier, affected by $10.5 million in unfavorable adjustments to prior-year claim estimates concentrated in approximately five claims.
    • −Legal risks for the brokerage business increased following the Montgomery decision, as management explained that claims in approximately half of the states no longer benefit from the same previous path to protection and that plaintiffs may become more aggressive in filing lawsuits. Landstar has a brokerage judgment of approximately $22.8 million under appeal, although the jury attributed 15% of it to the company, and brokerage liability policies require a $2 million self-insured retention.
    • −Tightening transportation capacity pressured brokerage economics; the brokerage net revenue margin contracted 129 basis points sequentially, and the rate the company paid brokerage carriers was 136 basis points higher than in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2025. As a result, the variable contribution margin declined to 13.9% from 14.1% despite strong revenue growth.
    • −Selling, general, and administrative expenses increased to $68.2 million in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 from $55.7 million, or by approximately $7.7 million after excluding the effect of a $4.8 million reclassification. Pressures included an increase in incentive compensation accruals to $6.4 million from $1 million, in addition to higher stock-based compensation and information technology project costs.
    • −Free cash flow was negative in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 because of the sharp sequential revenue growth and working-capital draw, marking only the third time the company recorded negative free cash flow in a decade. If working-capital needs persist as freight volumes and prices rise, the conversion of revenue growth into distributable cash may be delayed.
    • −

    Valuation

    The analysts’ average price target is $203.4, within a wide range of $181 to $240, while the average is approximately 11% below the 52-week range high of $228.46, and the highest target exceeds that high. The “Neutral” consensus and dispersion of targets reflect the absence of strong agreement on the extent to which earnings will benefit from an improving freight market, particularly amid rising claims costs, pressure on the brokerage margin, and negative free cash flow; the data do not include a valid earnings multiple that could be used as an additional valuation anchor.

    HoldAnalyst target: $203.4(+17.7%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What is driving LSTR’s growth in fiscal year 2026?

    In quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, Landstar’s revenue increased 18% year over year, with truck revenue per load up 17% and volume up approximately 2%. Heavy-haul freight generated $164 million in revenue, up 18% due to 9% volume growth and an 8% increase in revenue per load. In July of quarter 3 of fiscal year 2026, truckloads increased approximately 5% and revenue per load approximately 26% compared with July of fiscal year 2025.

    Why is the heavy-haul freight business important to Landstar?

    Heavy-haul freight generated revenue of $164 million in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, an increase of 18% from the corresponding period. Management reported that 22 customers in this business each increased their freight volume with Landstar by at least 50 loads during the quarter. Demand was spread across the data center, aviation, defense, and energy ecosystem, indicating that performance was not driven by a single customer or end market.

    What are the main insurance and litigation risks facing LSTR?

    Insurance and claims costs totaled $39.4 million in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, compared with $30.4 million in the corresponding quarter, and included $10.5 million in unfavorable adjustments to prior-year claims. These adjustments came from approximately five specific claims, three of which were related to truck brokerage. Management also explained that the Montgomery decision may increase the need to defend brokerage cases in approximately half of the states, while vehicle liability coverage was renewed from June 1, 2026 at a nearly stable cost and brokerage liability coverage at a 3% increase.

    Is Landstar’s independent BCO driver network improving?

    Landstar added a net 68 BCO trucks in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, the strongest quarterly increase since quarter 1 of fiscal year 2022. During the four-week July 2026 period, the network added another net 49 trucks, after gross additions increased 4.2% and cancellations declined 13.6% sequentially during the quarter. The 12-month turnover rate declined to 28.3% from 31.4% at the end of fiscal year 2025, while utilization increased 12% year over year and 8% sequentially.

    How does Landstar use technology and AI within its business model?

    Management stated on the July 28, 2026 call that it had developed AI applications to improve agent workflows, information retrieval speed, exception handling, and data visibility. The company intends to begin expanding the deployment of repeatable applications within agent offices in the middle of quarter 3 of fiscal year 2026. The tools are intended to increase efficiency and help agents grow their businesses, with management emphasizing that technology supports rather than replaces agent relationships and expertise.

    What is LSTR’s liquidity and capital return position?

    Landstar ended quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 with $348 million in cash and short-term investments. Operating cash flow totaled $28 million and cash capital expenditures were $9 million during the first half, but free cash flow was negative in quarter 2 because of the working-capital draw associated with the sharp growth. In the first half of fiscal year 2026, the company paid approximately $95 million in dividends and repurchased approximately $24 million of shares, then declared a quarterly dividend of $0.44 per share, an increase of 10%.

    Management declined to provide formal financial guidance for quarter 3 of fiscal year 2026 because of volatility in the freight environment, macroeconomy, and legal claims, widening the range of uncertainty around earnings and margins. Insiders also recorded net sales of $2.8 million during the three months through the latest transaction on June 15, 2026, with two sales and no purchases, although these sales are a weak standalone signal because they may have been prearranged.