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Stocks
Stride, Inc.
LRN

LRN Stride, Inc.

Stride, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
82.00
▲ ⁦+0.68%⁩ (+0.55)
Market Cap$3.5B
Beta0.10
52w Low52w High
60.61169.08
Last Week
⁦-3.64%⁩
Last Month
⁦-0.62%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-11.24%⁩
Last Year
⁦-51.71%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall82
Excellent — top fifth of the marketContrarianF 6/8Better than 82% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
88
10.4x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
70
4.7%▼7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
78
16.9%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
87
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
29
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
31
-52.9%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
45
33Around median
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$82
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$38
⁦-54%⁩
See it clearly overvalued
Range ⁦$38–$38⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$172
⁦+110%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦3⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$38–$172⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$38.00
⁦-53.7%⁩
Current Price $82.00·Median $38.00
Low
$38.00
High
$38.00
Street summary

Sharp Cut in the Price Target Amid Limited Coverage

Bearish tilt

The current price target settled at 38, unchanged over the last day, but declined from 107.8 over the last 7 and 30 days, a decrease of 69.8 or 64.75%. There is no actual dispersion among analysts because current coverage is limited to a single analyst, with the high, low, median, and consensus levels all matching at 38, making the signal more negative but limiting the strength of the conclusion.

As of 2026-09-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-64.8%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.67
Buy
Analyst coverage
3
Buy conviction
33%
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time3 analysts rating
1
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.00 → 3.67
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-09
    BMO Capital
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-31
    BMO Capital
    Market Perform
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-07-30
    William Blair
    OutperformMarket Perform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    10.35x
    4.61x36.85x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    11.13x
    3.86x30.86x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    6.35x
    2.86x22.90x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    9.1%
    -37.4%14.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    4.7%
    -16.7%29.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    33.1%
    -135.4%136.3%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    37.8%
    9.2%67.5%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    16.9%
    -29.3%20.8%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-04 data

Company Overview

Stride, Inc. provides digital education programs across more than 30 geographies, serving students through two main tracks: Career Learning programs for middle and high school students, and General Education programs. Revenue generation depends on enrollment numbers, the mix of programs and states, government funding in each state, and enrollment timing; average revenue per enrolled student was $9.91 thousand in fiscal year 2026 versus $9.68 thousand in fiscal year 2025.

In fiscal year 2026, revenue reached $2.518 billion, an increase of 4.7%, while student enrollment grew 4.2% to approximately 244 thousand students. Career Learning generated revenue of $1.04 billion, up 19%, and its enrollment increased 14% to 110 thousand students, while General Education revenue declined 2% to $1.42 billion and enrollment decreased 2.5% to 134 thousand students; Career Learning was therefore the clear growth driver in the business mix.

According to the latest quarter available in EDGAR filings, fiscal year 2026 quarter 3 recorded revenue of $629.9 million and gross profit of $231.6 million, equivalent to a gross margin of approximately 36.8%, net income of $88.5 million, and earnings per share of $1.93. For fiscal year 2026, gross margin was 37.8%, down 140 basis points, while net income according to EDGAR was approximately $287.9 million, and the company recorded $498.4 million in adjusted operating income, $617.6 million in adjusted EBITDA, and $8.33 in adjusted earnings per share.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Career Learning revenue grew 19% to $1.04 billion in fiscal year 2026, alongside a 14% increase in enrollment to 110 thousand students, enabling this track to offset the contraction in General Education and drive the company's growth.
  • Free cash flow was $355 million in fiscal year 2026, and Stride ended the period with approximately $1.034 billion in cash and cash equivalents and marketable securities, providing capacity to fund organic growth, strategic acquisitions, and capital returns.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • The company repurchased approximately $189 million of shares during fiscal year 2026, with approximately $311 million remaining under the authorization extending through October 31, 2027; CEO Bob Knowling said he would evaluate opportunistic repurchases after the trading window opens at the end of October 2026.
  • On the August 4, 2026 call, management explained that enrollment applications were slightly below the comparable level, but conversion and re-enrollment rates were higher, and it expected revenue per enrolled student in fiscal year 2027 to be approximately stable or slightly higher than in fiscal year 2026.
  • The board appointed Bob Knowling as the new CEO under an immediate succession plan announced before the August 4, 2026 call, and his stated priorities focused on improving student outcomes and leveraging live and AI-supported instruction platforms and the Tallo and digital curriculum platforms to improve market access.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The shift in the mix toward Career Learning provides a qualitative growth driver; revenue from this business increased 19% and enrollment rose 14% in fiscal year 2026, compared with declines in both revenue and enrollment in General Education.
    • +Fiscal year 2026 results demonstrate strong cash-generation capacity, with $355 million in free cash flow and cash and securities totaling $1.034 billion, despite capital expenditures of $78.8 million.
    • +Adjusted EBITDA increased 8.2% to $617.6 million, exceeding revenue growth of 4.7%, while selling, general, and administrative expenses declined 4.7% to $499.8 million.
    • +Stride serves approximately 244 thousand students across more than 30 geographies and aims to deepen its presence in existing markets and enter new geographies, while using live instruction, artificial intelligence, Tallo, and digital curriculum platforms to improve student outcomes.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −The loss of school contracts has a direct impact on enrollment and revenue; Roscoe Independent School District decided not to renew the Lone Star Online Academy contract following performance issues at the school, and management acknowledged that it cannot guarantee that other contracts will not leave.
    • −The enrollment pace in fiscal year 2027 faces a difficult comparison because Stride ended fiscal year 2026 with fewer students than it had at the beginning after restricting enrollment during the year; enrollment applications as of August 4, 2026 were slightly below the comparable period, and management did not provide formal enrollment, revenue, or earnings guidance ahead of fiscal year 2027 quarter 1 results in October 2026.
    • −General Education revenue declined 2%, and enrollment decreased 2.5% to 134 thousand students in fiscal year 2026, revealing that overall growth depends on the continuation of stronger momentum in Career Learning.
    • −Gross margin declined 140 basis points to 37.8% in fiscal year 2026 due to platform investments, and management expects the margin to remain approximately stable in fiscal year 2027, with higher stock-based compensation expense and a higher tax rate; free cash flow also decreased by $17.8 million to $355 million.
    • −Revenue per student depends on the mix of states and programs and funding yields, and management warned that differences in education budget decisions among states could cause volatility; therefore, stability in the overall funding environment does not guarantee stable yields in every market.
    • −The valuation reveals wide variation in analyst opinions: the average target is $107.8, but the range extends from $45 to $185, while the 52-week range extends from $60.61 to $166.93; this breadth reflects uncertainty about enrollment, margins, and the leadership transition.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus on LRN is Neutral, with an average price target of $107.8 and a very wide range between $45 and $185. The average target is approximately 35% below the 52-week range high of $166.93, while the highest target exceeds that high by approximately 11%, and the lowest target is approximately 26% below the range low of $60.61. This dispersion is consistent with a combination of Career Learning growth and strong liquidity on one hand, and margin pressure, difficult enrollment comparisons, and the loss of the Lone Star Online Academy contract on the other.

    HoldAnalyst target: $107.8(+31.5%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    Which business is driving Stride's growth in fiscal year 2026?

    Career Learning drove growth with revenue of $1.04 billion in fiscal year 2026, up 19% from fiscal year 2025. Enrollment in this business increased 14% to 110 thousand students, while General Education enrollment declined 2.5% to 134 thousand students. As a result, the total number of students served by Stride increased by approximately 4.2% to nearly 244 thousand students.

    What were Stride's most notable financial results in fiscal year 2026?

    Revenue reached $2.518 billion in fiscal year 2026, an increase of 4.7%, and net income according to EDGAR was approximately $287.9 million. The company recorded $498.4 million in adjusted operating income and $617.6 million in adjusted EBITDA, increases of approximately 7% and 8.2%, respectively. Adjusted earnings per share were $8.33, but gross margin declined 140 basis points to 37.8%.

    What do the enrollment indicators for fiscal year 2027 look like?

    Management stated on August 4, 2026 that enrollment applications were slightly below the comparable period, while conversion and re-enrollment rates improved. Enrollment counts as of the census date face a more difficult comparison because the company restricted enrollment during fiscal year 2026, and therefore did not enter fiscal year 2027 with a carryover benefit similar to previous years. Stride did not provide formal financial guidance and said it would announce it with fiscal year 2027 quarter 1 results in October 2026.

    What is the impact of the non-renewal of the Lone Star Online Academy contract?

    Roscoe Independent School District decided not to renew the Lone Star Online Academy contract, and management acknowledged performance issues at the school. Stride is working to transfer affected families to other programs and confirmed the continued operation of multiple schools in Texas. Nevertheless, management explained that some contracts exiting and new contracts entering are part of the nature of the business, and that improving student outcomes is a priority for reducing this risk.

    What is Stride's liquidity and share repurchase position?

    Stride ended fiscal year 2026 with approximately $1.034 billion in cash and cash equivalents and marketable securities. Free cash flow was $355 million after capital expenditures of $78.8 million, although free cash flow declined by $17.8 million from the prior year. The company repurchased approximately $189 million of shares during fiscal year 2026, with approximately $311 million remaining under the authorization extending through October 31, 2027.

    What explains the variation in analyst targets for LRN shares?

    The average price target is $107.8, but the lowest target is $45 and the highest is $185, with the consensus rated Neutral. The highest target exceeds the 52-week range high of $166.93, while the lowest target is below the range low of $60.61. This variation reflects the strength of Career Learning growth and liquidity on one side, versus the margin decline, difficult enrollment comparisons, and contract renewal risks on the other.