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Dorian LPG Ltd.
LPG

LPG Dorian LPG Ltd.

Dorian LPG Ltd. · NYSE
Market Closed
55.18
▲ ⁦+1.42%⁩ (+0.77)
Market Cap$2.4B
Beta0.76
52w Low52w High
23.7655.49
Last Week
⁦+8.49%⁩
Last Month
⁦+26.79%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+18.77%⁩
Last Year
⁦+76.46%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall97
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 8/9SafeBetter than 97% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
84
7.3x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
69
81.1%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
79
17.7%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
82
0.3x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
63
5.35%▲2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
99
50.5%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
23
33Bottom tier
Fair Value
Current price$55
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$55
⁦-0%⁩
See it fairly priced
Range ⁦$55–$55⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$58
⁦+4%⁩
Sees it fairly priced
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$55–$58⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Annual plan
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Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$55.00
⁦-0.3%⁩
Current Price $55.18·Median $55.00
Low
$55.00
High
$55.00
Street summary

Dorian LPG Stock Price Forecast Analysis

Dorian LPG stock shows a state of complete stability in analyst estimates during recent periods (1, 7, and 30 days), with the target price stabilizing at 55 dollars. This consistency reflects the absence of any recent upward or downward revisions, noting that current analytical coverage is limited to only one analyst, which eliminates any Dispersion in opinions but raises the level of risk associated with limited institutional perspectives.

As of 2026-05-22
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.00
Buy
Analyst coverage
5
Buy conviction
80%
High
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time5 analysts rating
1
3
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.57 → 4.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-05-22
    Jefferies
    Buy· $55.00
  • = Reiterate2026-05-21
    Pareto
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-04-24
    Jefferies
    Buy· $42.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    7.31x
    3.56x28.47x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    9.54x
    3.36x26.89x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    6.92x
    2.12x16.98x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    6.3%
    -21.0%15.7%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    81.1%
    -19.7%63.1%
    Exceptional
  • EPS Growth YoY
    556.5%
    -141.8%256.7%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    60.5%
    7.8%72.1%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    17.7%
    -12.7%20.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.28x
    0.40x3.19x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    5.3%
    0.4%10.1%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    39.3%
    11.9%109.0%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    3.70
    -1.814.34
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-05 data

Company Overview

Dorian LPG Ltd. operates a fleet of very large gas carriers VLGC to transport liquefied petroleum gas by sea, with revenue generated primarily from vessel charters in the spot market, contracts of affreightment, and time charters. The company's spot-market trading is conducted through the Helios Pool, which comprised 29 vessels with spot exposure of slightly more than 75%, while seven Dorian vessels within the pool were time-chartered. This mix makes earnings highly correlated with freight rates, operating days, and fuel and transit costs, with a positive earnings contribution from the six time-chartered-in vessels during the period.

In fiscal year 2027 quarter 1, ended June 30, 2026, revenue reached $187.9 million and net income was $138.3 million, equivalent to earnings per share of $3.24 and a calculated net income margin of approximately 73.6%. Revenue increased by approximately 22.6% compared with revenue of $153.3 million in fiscal year 2026 quarter 4, while net income rose from $81.0 million to $138.3 million. The performance included a $30.1 million gain from the sale of the Cobra vessel, so net income does not reflect recurring operating activity alone.

Time charter equivalent TCE revenue per available day reached $75,926, the highest in the company's history, while spot activity and contracts of affreightment in the Helios Pool generated $82,445 per day, and the pool's total TCE exceeded $75,100 per day. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached $165.4 million, including the gain on the sale of Cobra, while daily operating expenses were $10,308 excluding drydocking expenses. For fiscal year 2026, the company recorded revenue of $481.5 million, net income of $193.7 million, and earnings per share of $4.54.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz caused volumes lifted from the Middle East to decline by more than 70% year over year to approximately 3.4 million tonnes during fiscal year 2027 quarter 1, prompting countries such as India and Indonesia to increase sourcing from the U.S. Gulf and lengthening voyage distances.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • U.S. liquefied petroleum gas exports reached a record level of approximately 20.8 million tonnes, up 20% year over year, and came to represent approximately 65% of global seaborne exports compared with less than 50% a year earlier. This also exceeded the previous quarterly record by approximately 1.8 million tonnes, while shipments from the U.S. Gulf to India increased by approximately 138% during April and May 2026 compared with February and March 2026.
  • Strong demand and disrupted trade routes were reflected in Dorian LPG's revenue, as the company recorded TCE of $75,926 per available day, while spot activity and contracts of affreightment in the Helios Pool generated $82,445 per day. Management indicated on the August 5, 2026 call that the BLPG index was approaching record levels at approximately $175,000 per day, amid continued Panama Canal congestion and higher auction fees.
  • Fleet efficiency supports operating economics in a high-fuel-cost environment; the company operated 15 scrubber-equipped vessels and six dual-fuel LPG vessels. Scrubber-equipped vessels generated savings of approximately $1,971 per vessel per calendar day after operating expenses during fiscal year 2027 quarter 1, while the price spread between high- and low-sulfur fuel was approximately $118 per metric tonne.
  • The company is pursuing gradual fleet renewal, having contracted during the year to sell four vessels and delivered three of them, with net proceeds from the sales of Corsair and Constellation reaching approximately $166.4 million before repayment of the debt associated with them. In return, it contracted with Hyundai Heavy Industries for a dual-fuel Panamax VLGC with a capacity of 90,000 cubic meters and delivery in mid-2029.
  • Liquidity supported capital-allocation flexibility; cash stood at $342 million on June 30, 2026, then approached $600 million following vessel sales and strong market conditions. The company declared an irregular distribution of one dollar per share totaling $42.8 million, its twentieth distribution, bringing cumulative distributions since September 2021 to approximately $811 million.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +Spot exposure of slightly more than 75% in the Helios Pool provides high sensitivity to strong VLGC rates, as demonstrated when the company's TCE reached a record $75,926 per available day during fiscal year 2027 quarter 1.
    • +The balance sheet gives the company the ability to combine fleet renewal, deleveraging, and distributions; debt to total book capitalization was 29.3% and net debt to total capitalization was 9.7% on June 30, 2026, with an undrawn credit facility of $41 million and one debt-free vessel.
    • +Debt settlements totaling $80.6 million, including the expected repayment associated with the Clermont vessel, are expected to reduce principal amortization by approximately $2 million per quarter and interest expense by approximately $1 million per quarter on a run-rate basis.
    • +Efficiency technologies support the fleet's competitiveness, as the company combines 15 scrubber-equipped vessels with six dual-fuel LPG vessels, while the new 2029 vessel will also include a shaft generator to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Performance depends heavily on the volatile spot shipping market because slightly more than 75% of the 29 vessels in the Helios Pool were exposed to the spot market. Management acknowledged that the shipping sector is volatile and that the irregular distribution policy should reflect this, meaning the record distribution and earnings levels in fiscal year 2027 quarter 1 are not guaranteed.
    • −Trade rerouting was concentrated around the U.S. Gulf, which supplied approximately 65% of global seaborne liquefied petroleum gas exports following the Middle East disruption. Demand strength therefore depends on continued U.S. production, terminal capacity, and long-haul routes to Asia, while the return of Middle Eastern flows or the easing of transportation bottlenecks could reduce tonne-mile demand.
    • −Expansion of the newbuild orderbook poses a risk to the sector's supply balance by the time the company's new vessel is delivered in mid-2029. The chief executive officer explicitly stated on the August 5, 2026 call that he would have preferred fewer new vessels on order and that he does not like the extent to which the orderbook has expanded.
    • −Fuel and Panama Canal disruptions raise voyage costs and limit the company's ability to benefit fully from freight rates; average vessel fuel prices increased by approximately 36% quarter over quarter, while the average Panama Canal auction price in April 2026 was approximately $900,000 higher than in March 2026. The company confirmed that canal transit fees affected realized rates, while daily operating expenses rose to $10,308 because of freight, maintenance, and repairs.
    • −The company expects a daily cash cost between $26,000 and $27,000 during the year following the August 5, 2026 call, excluding capital expenditures for the scheduled drydocking of the Captain John vessel in fiscal year 2027 quarter 4. This adds operating sensitivity if TCE rates decline from the record levels recorded in fiscal year 2027 quarter 1.
    • −Valuation presents a cautious signal despite the average price target of $55, because the analyst consensus is neutral and the highest and lowest targets are identical at $55, reflecting an extremely narrow range of estimates. Insiders also recorded three sales with no purchases and net sales of $2.1 million during the three months ended with the latest transaction on August 11, 2026, but this is a weak standalone signal because such sales may have been prearranged.

    Valuation

    The average analyst price target is $55, which is also both the highest and lowest target, and is approximately 5.6% above the 52-week range high of $52.10, while the range low is $23.76. However, the analyst consensus is neutral, and the identical targets at $55 limit the diversity of estimates, while no valid price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data to compare the price with fiscal year 2026 or fiscal year 2027 quarter 1 earnings.

    HoldAnalyst target: $55(-0.3%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-01; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    Why did Dorian LPG's earnings increase in fiscal year 2027 quarter 1?

    The company benefited from disruptions to Middle Eastern supplies and the rerouting of shipments from the U.S. Gulf to Asia, which increased voyage distances and demand for VLGC vessels. The company's TCE reached $75,926 per available day, the highest level recorded in its history, while spot activity and contracts of affreightment in the Helios Pool generated $82,445 per day. As a result, revenue reached $187.9 million and net income was $138.3 million, but net income included a $30.1 million gain from the sale of Cobra.

    How dependent is LPG on spot freight rates?

    Slightly more than 75% of the twenty-nine vessels in the Helios Pool were exposed to the spot market during fiscal year 2027 quarter 1, with seven Dorian vessels on time-charter contracts within the pool. This gives the company strong upside when VLGC rates rise, as occurred when it recorded TCE of $75,926 per available day. However, it also increases the volatility of earnings and distributions if freight rates decline or trade-route bottlenecks ease.

    How does Dorian LPG use the liquidity generated by earnings and vessel sales?

    Management said on August 5, 2026 that it balances shareholder distributions, debt reduction, and fleet renewal. Cash stood at $342 million on June 30, 2026, then approached $600 million following proceeds from vessel sales and strong market conditions, while the company declared an irregular distribution of one dollar per share totaling $42.8 million. It also repaid or planned to repay debt associated with vessels sold and contracted for a dual-fuel Panamax VLGC with a capacity of 90,000 cubic meters from Hyundai Heavy Industries for delivery in mid-2029.

    What impact do the Strait of Hormuz and the Panama Canal have on Dorian LPG's business?

    The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz during most of the quarter ended June 30, 2026 caused Middle Eastern volumes to fall by approximately 70% year over year to nearly 3.4 million tonnes. Resupply from the U.S. Gulf pushed more vessels onto longer voyages around the Cape of Good Hope or through the Panama Canal, increasing tonne-mile demand. In return, fuel prices increased by approximately 36% quarter over quarter, while the average Panama Canal auction price in April 2026 rose by approximately $900,000 compared with March 2026, putting pressure on net realized rates.

    What is Dorian LPG's fleet-renewal plan?

    The company contracted during the year to sell four vessels and had delivered three by the August 5, 2026 call, with the sales including Cobra, Corsair, and Constellation. Net proceeds from the sales of Corsair and Constellation reached approximately $166.4 million, and it also signed an agreement to sell Clermont, with completion expected in September or October 2026. On the replacement side, it ordered from Hyundai Heavy Industries a dual-fuel Panamax VLGC with a capacity of 90,000 cubic meters for delivery in mid-2029, with management emphasizing that the program will be conservative and gradual.

    Are Dorian LPG's distributions regular and guaranteed?

    The one-dollar-per-share distribution declared in August 2026 is an irregular distribution, not a fixed recurring commitment. It is the twentieth payment and brought irregular distributions since September 2021 to $19.65 per share and approximately $811 million in total. The board of directors evaluates earnings, liquidity, fleet investment needs, and the market environment before determining any distribution, so its size may change or no distribution may be declared during periods of weakness in the shipping market.