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Home
Stocks
Cheniere Energy, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall76
Strong — clearly above market medianSuper StockF 7/9Grey zoneBetter than 76% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
56
20.7x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
23
17.5%▲7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
85
16.7%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
52
3.1x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
41
0.77%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
77
8.6%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
82
11▲3Top tier
LNG

LNG Cheniere Energy, Inc.

Cheniere Energy, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
278.34
▲ ⁦+0.18%⁩ (+0.50)
Market Cap$58.3B
Beta-0.01
52w Low52w High
186.20300.89
Last Week
⁦-5.37%⁩
Last Month
⁦+4.77%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+16.27%⁩
Last Year
⁦+19.26%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$278
Analyst target · 7 analysts
$305
⁦+10%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$279–$330⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$142
⁦-49%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦2⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$142–$305⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 7 analysts setting price target
$302.88
⁦+8.8%⁩
Current Price $278.34·Median $305.00
Low
$279.00
High
$330.00
Current price
$278.34
Average target
$302.88
Street summary

A slight increase in consensus with clear divergence

Bullish tilt

The consensus price target rose from 291.67 to 302.88 over the last 30 days, an increase of 11.21 or 3.84%, and also increased by $3 over the last 7 days. The consensus and the number of analysts, at 7, remained unchanged over the last day, indicating gradual improvement rather than a broad new revision. The consensus and median stand at 302.88 and 305, above the current price of 278.34, while the range is between 279 and 330, reflecting notable divergence among estimates.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+3.8%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.14
Buy
Analyst coverage
22
Buy conviction
91%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
18%
Analyst ratings over time22 analysts rating
5
15
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.12 → 4.14
Recent analyst moves
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    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-09-01
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    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-24
    RBC Capital
    Outperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    20.68x
    3.56x28.47x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    18.21x
    3.36x26.89x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    11.25x
    2.12x16.98x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    4.9%
    -21.0%15.7%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    17.5%
    -19.7%63.1%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -21.5%
    -141.8%256.7%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    48.0%
    7.8%72.1%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    16.7%
    -12.7%20.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    3.15x
    0.40x3.19x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    0.8%
    0.4%10.1%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    15.8%
    11.9%109.0%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    2.16
    -1.814.34
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-06 data

Company Overview

Cheniere Energy operates a U.S. liquefied natural gas infrastructure platform centered on the Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi facilities, generating its core cash flows from long-term contracts with creditworthy counterparties, alongside spot marketing sales and supply and shipping optimization activities. The company benefits from purchasing U.S. gas, liquefying it, and then supplying it to global markets, with flexibility to redirect cargoes between Europe and Asia based on price differentials. During Q2 FY2026, higher Stage 3 production, the absence of major maintenance, and improved marketing margins and optimization activities helped increase volumes and results.

In Q2 FY2026, revenue was $5.7 billion, net income was $3.1 billion, and earnings per share according to EDGAR filings were approximately $14.65. The company also recorded adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.8 billion and distributable cash flow of approximately $1.2 billion, while news reports showed adjusted earnings of $3.02 per share versus expectations of $2.89. Net income increased by approximately $1.5 billion year over year, but a significant portion of the increase came from a non-cash derivatives impact related to long-term IPM agreements, so net income alone does not reflect operating cash performance.

The company produced and exported 184 cargoes, equivalent to 672 trillion British thermal units, up 20% from the comparable period, and recognized 657 trillion British thermal units of volumes in revenue. The performance mix came from increased Stage 3 production, higher marketing margins, and optimization activities, while the redirection of several cargoes from Europe to Asia deferred recognition of some volumes to Q3 FY2026. On a trailing twelve-month basis, revenue was $20.8 billion and net income was $1.5 billion, compared with revenue of $20.0 billion and net income of $5.3 billion in FY2025, highlighting the continued volatility of accounting net income.

What's Driving the Stock

  • On August 6, 2026, Cheniere raised its FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance range to $7.9–$8.4 billion and distributable cash flow to $5.3–$5.8 billion; the midpoints of the two ranges increased by $650 million and $550 million, respectively, and the new low end exceeded the previous high end for both.
  • The company raised its FY2026 production range from 52–54 million tons to 53–54 million tons and estimated that the 0.5 million-ton increase at the midpoint added approximately $300 million to guidance, while sales of open volumes and Henry Hub movements added approximately $200 million and optimization activities added between $100 million and $150 million.
  • The Corpus Christi Stage 3 project was more than 98% complete on August 6, 2026; Train 6 achieved substantial completion in June 2026, and Train 7 entered commissioning, with substantial completion expected in the following months and ahead of the guaranteed date in 2027. The Trains 8 and 9 and debottlenecking project also surpassed 48% completion and was ahead of schedule on key workstreams.
  • Cheniere signed an engineering, procurement, and construction contract worth approximately $4.7 billion with Bechtel Energy for Phase 1 of the Sabine Pass expansion, which includes Train 7 with a design capacity of approximately 5 million tons per year and a boil-off gas reliquefaction unit adding approximately 1 million tons per year. Phase 1 is expected to increase production capacity by more than 6 million tons per year, or approximately 10% of the platform, with regulatory approvals expected later in 2026 and a final investment decision in early 2027.
  • Reliability improvements supported operating performance, including fans developed with Hudson that provide more than 40% higher airflow at the same motor power consumption, enhancing cooling at Sabine Pass. Management explained that more than two-thirds of the increase from the original production range of 51–53 million tons to 53–54 million tons came from reducing outages, debottlenecking, and improving maintenance, not solely from accelerated Stage 3 commissioning.
  • The company returned $1.3 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends during the first half of FY2026, including the repurchase of approximately 5 million shares for about $1.1 billion. In Q2 FY2026 alone, it repurchased 2.2 million shares for $550 million and declared a dividend of $0.555 per share, with a stated commitment to increase the annual dividend by at least 10% through the end of the decade.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Operating growth provides tangible evidence of Cheniere's ability to expand production ahead of guaranteed schedules; the number of cargoes and exported volumes increased 20% year over year in Q2 FY2026, and the company raised annual production guidance to 53–54 million tons.
  • +The core portion of the business model is based on long-term contracts, with less than 1 million tons or 50 trillion British thermal units of unsold volumes remaining for FY2026; accordingly, a $1 change in market margins could affect annual EBITDA by less than $50 million, according to the company's estimate.
  • +The growth plan combines the nearly completed Corpus Christi Stage 3, Trains 8 and 9, and Phase 1 of the Sabine Pass expansion, which could add more than 6 million tons per year. The Sabine Pass expansion leverages existing infrastructure and does not require additional marine berths or storage tanks, or significant investment in new gas pipelines, supporting the project's economics according to management's details.
  • +Liquidity and the financing structure support the combination of expansion and shareholder returns; the company maintained $2.75 billion of credit capacity, extended its maturities, and financed approximately $900 million of the $1.1 billion in growth spending in Q2 FY2026 with debt and approximately $200 million with equity.

▼ Selling Case

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $299.88, within a range of $279 to $330, with a consensus rating of “Buy.” The average is only approximately $1 below the 52-week range high of $300.89, while the highest target exceeds that high by approximately $29 and the lowest target remains above the range low of $186.2; this dispersion reflects the balance between higher FY2026 guidance and production capacity growth versus margin volatility and project execution risks. No valid price-to-earnings ratio is available in the provided data, and the large swing between the Q1 loss and Q2 profit in FY2026 makes distributable cash flow and adjusted EBITDA more indicative than net income alone when assessing operating performance.

BuyAnalyst target: $299.88(+7.7%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

Why did Cheniere Energy raise its FY2026 guidance?

On August 6, 2026, the company raised adjusted EBITDA guidance to $7.9–$8.4 billion and distributable cash flow guidance to $5.3–$5.8 billion. Approximately $300 million of the increase resulted from adding 0.5 million tons to the midpoint of production guidance, approximately $200 million came from sales of open volumes and Henry Hub movements, and between $100 million and $150 million came from optimization activities. It also raised its production range to 53–54 million tons due to improved reliability, accelerated commissioning of Stage 3 trains, and higher marketing margins.

How important is Corpus Christi Stage 3 to LNG stock?

The Corpus Christi Stage 3 project was more than 98% complete on August 6, 2026, and Train 6 achieved substantial completion in June 2026. Train 7 entered commissioning, with substantial completion expected ahead of the guaranteed date in 2027, supporting the first full year of all Stage 3 capacity in FY2027. The new capacity already helped raise Q2 FY2026 production and exports to 184 cargoes and 672 trillion British thermal units, up 20% year over year.

How will the Sabine Pass expansion affect Cheniere's growth?

Phase 1 includes Train 7 with a design capacity of approximately 5 million tons per year and a boil-off gas reliquefaction unit adding approximately 1 million tons per year, for a total of more than 6 million tons or approximately 10% of platform capacity. The company signed a contract worth approximately $4.7 billion with Bechtel Energy, while Baker Hughes will supply the turbines and compressors and perform upgrades to service the turbine fleet. Regulatory approvals were expected later in 2026, and the final investment decision was targeted for early 2027, with financing, early engineering, and critical procurement underway.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

6 pts
  • −New contracts face clear pricing competition, as management noted that approximately 100 million tons of LNG capacity that reached final investment decisions since the beginning of 2025 is still seeking end buyers. Management expressed greater confidence in contracting mid-single-digit millions of tons over 12–18 months than in securing 20 million tons on its customary premium terms and $2.50–$3 margins, which could constrain the pace or returns of expansion.
  • −The market remains highly exposed to the war in Iran and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz; Qatar and UAE supplies declined by approximately 18 million tons during Q2 FY2026, and LNG tanker traffic through the strait remained below 10% of the pre-conflict average. Cheniere benefited from higher margins and the need for alternative supplies, but continued volatility could affect gas prices, cargo timing, lifting margins, and the allocation of volumes between Europe and Asia.
  • −FY2026 guidance includes a $500 million range for each of adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow despite most volumes being sold, due to LNG price volatility, the timing of Train 7 completion, cargoes near the end of the fiscal year, optimization activities, and Henry Hub prices. In addition, realized market margins of $10–$13 on some volumes are significantly above the long-term assumption of $2.50–$3, so the full continuation of current gains should not be assumed when the market stabilizes.
  • −The expansion program entails execution, financing, and regulatory risks; the Phase 1 contract at Sabine Pass is worth approximately $4.7 billion, and limited engineering and procurement work began before the final investment decision expected in early 2027. Regulatory approvals were still expected later in 2026, while financing was being arranged based on an approximately equal mix of debt and cash flow for the equity portion.
  • −Accounting earnings remain volatile and do not always align with cash flows; net income swung from a $3.5 billion loss in Q1 FY2026 to a $3.1 billion profit in Q2 FY2026, with the non-cash derivatives impact being a major factor. Applying the normal purchases and normal sales accounting exception to approximately 75% of IPM volumes should reduce future volatility, but it does not cover all agreements.
  • −Q2 FY2026 revenue declined to $5.7 billion from $5.9 billion in Q1 FY2026, despite improved production and annual guidance. This reflects that volume growth does not necessarily translate into sequential revenue growth due to delivery timing, cargo redirection, and changes in prices and margins.
Does Q2 FY2026 net income reflect sustainable operating strength?

Net income was $3.1 billion and earnings per share according to EDGAR were approximately $14.65 in Q2 FY2026, following a $3.5 billion loss in Q1 FY2026. However, the quarterly increase included a large non-cash gain from the valuation of derivatives related to IPM agreements, so adjusted EBITDA of $1.8 billion and distributable cash flow of $1.2 billion were clearer indicators of cash performance. Since mid-June 2026, the company has applied the normal purchases and normal sales accounting exception to approximately 75% of IPM volumes, which should reduce net income volatility in subsequent periods.

What is the impact of the Strait of Hormuz disruption on Cheniere's business?

The disruption reduced Qatar and UAE exports by approximately 18 million tons during Q2 FY2026, and outbound LNG tanker traffic through the strait remained below 10% of the pre-conflict average. The supply shortage drove the TTF and JKM benchmarks higher and redirected more U.S. exports to Asia, where U.S. shipments to Asia reached a quarterly record of approximately 11 million tons. This supported marketing margins and demand for Cheniere's flexible supply, but it also increased volatility in prices, shipping routes, and the timing of revenue recognition.

How does Cheniere return capital to shareholders?

During the first half of FY2026, the company returned more than $1.3 billion through share repurchases and dividends, including approximately $1.1 billion to repurchase nearly 5 million shares. In Q2 FY2026, it repurchased 2.2 million shares for $550 million and declared a dividend of $0.555 per share. It also reaffirmed its commitment to increase the annual dividend by at least 10% through the end of the decade, while funding the Corpus Christi and Sabine Pass projects.