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Stocks
Eli Lilly and Company
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall90
Excellent — top fifth of the marketHigh FlyerF 8/9SafeBetter than 90% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
17
37.4x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
94
49.6%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
93
37.6%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
78
0.8x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
37
0.55%▼2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
79
61.7%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
61
16▲3Around median
LLY

LLY Eli Lilly and Company

Eli Lilly and Company · NYSE
Market Closed
1,115.25
▼ ⁦-0.69%⁩ (-7.75)
Market Cap$1.1T
Beta0.51
52w Low52w High
712.051,292.65
Last Week
⁦-3.82%⁩
Last Month
⁦-8.61%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-3.94%⁩
Last Year
⁦+47.79%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$1115
Analyst target · 11 analysts
$1370
⁦+23%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$940–$1500⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$414
⁦-63%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦4⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$414–$1370⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 11 analysts setting price target
$1324.67
⁦+18.8%⁩
Current Price $1115.25·Median $1370.00
Low
$940.00
High
$1500.00
Current price
$1115.25
Average target
$1324.67
Street summary

Slight decline with clear divergence among analysts

The average price target declined from 1341.63 to 1324.67 over the last 7 and 30 days, a decrease of 16.96 or 1.26%, while remaining unchanged over the last day. The number of analysts remained at 11, but the target range is wide, between 940 and 1500, with a median average of 1370 compared with the current price of 1115.25, reflecting a notable divergence in valuations.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-1.3%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.90
Buy
Analyst coverage
30
Buy conviction
80%
High
Rating activity · 30d
1↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
50%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time30 analysts rating
6
18
4
1
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.80 → 3.90
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-10
    HSBC
    Reduce
  • = Reiterate2026-09-09
    BMO Capital
    Outperform
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-09-01
    BMO Capital
    OutperformBuy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    37.40x
    3.94x44.30x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    28.82x
    4.64x37.16x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    29.53x
    3.77x30.13x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    1.9%
    -138.2%7.8%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    49.6%
    -56.9%93.8%
    Strong
  • EPS Growth YoY
    94.5%
    -160.1%130.2%
    Strong
  • Gross Margin
    83.4%
    12.8%90.7%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    37.6%
    -155.3%16.0%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.77x
    0.60x5.10x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    0.5%
    0.0%3.9%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    21.7%
    7.4%76.0%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    7.64
    -38.7417.53
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-05 data

Company Overview

Eli Lilly and Company develops, manufactures, and markets pharmaceuticals, with its revenue drivers concentrated in cardiometabolic health alongside oncology, immunology, and neuroscience. The largest share of growth comes from diabetes and obesity treatments, particularly Mounjaro and Zepbound, while the company is expanding its growth sources through products such as Foundayo, Ebglyss, Jaypirca, Inluriyo, and Kisunla, in addition to more than 40 active phase 3 programs.

In Q2 FY2026, revenue rose 48% year over year to $23.0 billion, while gross profit according to EDGAR data reached approximately $19.7 billion, net income was $7.1 billion, and earnings per share were $7.94. According to the non-GAAP metrics presented on the earnings call, gross margin was 86.3%, up approximately 1.3 percentage points, operating margin increased nine percentage points to 54.8%, and earnings per share were $8.38 despite absorbing $3.03 in acquired research and development costs.

Mounjaro and Zepbound together generated $14.9 billion, or approximately 65% of Q2 FY2026 revenue, and added $6.3 billion in annual growth. At the same time, key oncology, immunology, and neuroscience medicines collectively grew 121%, global Jaypirca sales rose 56%, and global Ebglyss sales growth exceeded 100%, demonstrating the portfolio's expansion despite continued heavy reliance on incretin medicines.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Strong first-half performance raised the FY2026 revenue outlook to a range of $85 billion to $87 billion, after increasing the lower end by $3 billion and the upper end by $2 billion. The non-GAAP operating margin outlook was also raised to 49%–50.5%, and the earnings-per-share outlook to $35.50–$36.50.
  • Demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound remains the largest driver; together they generated $14.9 billion in Q2 FY2026, while prescriptions in the U.S. obesity incretin market grew 78%, and Lilly medicines accounted for approximately six out of every ten total prescriptions and seven out of every ten prescriptions for injectable treatments.
  • The Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program began on July 1, 2026, providing obesity treatment coverage to approximately 20 million eligible Americans at a monthly cost of $50, which increased the number of people covered for the company's obesity medicines by 35%. Management reported that 60%–70% of program users were new patients, with an approximately 80% preference for injectable treatments.
  • The Foundayo launch is improving gradually; the number of U.S. prescribers increased from 8,000 to 36,000, prescription volume in the final week of July 2026 nearly doubled compared with the previous month, and approximately one in every four new patients now starts treatment with it. It was also launched for obesity treatment in the UAE, received approvals in Saudi Arabia and Mexico, and is under regulatory review in more than 40 additional markets.
  • The development pipeline delivered multiple catalysts, as three phase 3 studies of retatrutide achieved positive results, and the company plans to submit it in the U.S. in Q1 FY2027. In oncology, pirtobrutinib reduced the risk of disease progression or death by 45% in the BRUIN CLL-322 study, while selpercatinib reduced the risk of disease recurrence or death by 83% in the LIBRETTO-432 study.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Financial performance combines 48% revenue growth in Q2 FY2026 with an improvement in gross margin to 86.3% and non-GAAP operating margin to 54.8%, indicating that expanding sales volumes are translating into higher operating profitability.
  • +Lilly has a strong position in the incretin market; its global share outside the U.S. reached approximately 55% after increasing by nearly two percentage points from Q1 FY2026, while the international market grew 74% year over year according to IQVIA total sales.
  • +The innovation trajectory does not depend on only one product; the company manages more than 40 active phase 3 programs, with positive data for retatrutide, the expansion of Foundayo, and approvals or supporting data in oncology, immunology, and neuroscience.
  • +Management supports its operational confidence through capital allocation, distributing $1.5 billion in cash dividends and repurchasing $1.6 billion of shares during Q2 FY2026, alongside opening a facility dedicated to genetic medicines in Indiana and producing the first commercial batch at the Limerick site.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus rates LLY as a Buy, with an average target of $1,341.63 and a wide range between $1,135 and $1,500. The average target is approximately 3.8% above the top of the 52-week range of $1,292.65, while the lower bound of $1,135 highlights differing estimates regarding the sustainability of obesity medicine growth, pricing pressures, and development pipeline execution. The data do not provide a usable price-to-earnings ratio, so the valuation here is based on the target range and the 52-week range rather than an unverified earnings multiple.

BuyAnalyst target: $1,341.63(+20.3%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What was the largest revenue driver for Eli Lilly in Q2 FY2026?

Mounjaro and Zepbound were the largest drivers, together generating $14.9 billion in revenue and adding $6.3 billion in growth compared with Q2 FY2025. This represents approximately 65% of total quarterly revenue of $23.0 billion. Prescriptions in the U.S. obesity incretin market also grew 78%, and nearly six out of every ten total prescriptions were for Lilly medicines.

What changed in Eli Lilly's FY2026 outlook?

The company raised its revenue outlook to between $85 billion and $87 billion on the August 5, 2026 call, increasing the lower end by $3 billion and the upper end by $2 billion. It also raised the non-GAAP operating margin range to 49%–50.5%. The non-GAAP earnings-per-share range increased to $35.50–$36.50, up $2.78 at the midpoint before accounting for the impact of acquired research and development costs in the quarter.

How is the Foundayo launch progressing inside and outside the U.S.?

The number of U.S. prescribers increased from 8,000 to 36,000 by the August 5, 2026 call, and management reported that prescription volume in the final week of July nearly doubled compared with the previous month. At that time, approximately one in every four new patients was starting treatment with Foundayo, following expanded commercial access and the start of a direct-to-consumer campaign. Outside the U.S., the medicine was launched in the UAE and received approvals in Saudi Arabia and Mexico, while it was under review in more than 40 additional countries.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Revenue concentration in Mounjaro and Zepbound represents a material risk, as the two products generated $14.9 billion, or approximately 65% of Q2 FY2026 revenue. Therefore, any slowdown in demand or change in coverage and pricing could significantly affect the group's growth.
  • −The obesity and diabetes portfolio faces direct competition from Novo products and generic versions of semaglutide in markets such as India and Brazil. Although Mounjaro prescriptions continued to grow through the August 5, 2026 call, management acknowledged the need to monitor competition closely and described early Foundayo share data as volatile and affected by inventory building.
  • −The second half of FY2026 entails a relative slowdown in reported growth rates because adjustments to discounts, rebates, and nonrecurring payments in previous quarters will not recur, and because Mounjaro's major geographic expansion occurred in the second half of FY2025. Management also expects Zepbound's price to decline as commercial access expands, following a 3% decline in U.S. pricing for the company's medicines in Q2, or 9% excluding estimate adjustments.
  • −retatrutide faces regulatory and legal risk related to its submission pathway as a biologic; management described the matter on August 5, 2026 as active litigation and said it needs to complete certain chemistry, manufacturing, and controls data and establish a pathway supporting a biologics license application before the planned submission in Q1 FY2027.
  • −The analyst target range reflects a material divergence in valuation estimates, from $1,135 to $1,500, while the 52-week range is $712.05–$1,292.65. With the average target at $1,341.63, only approximately 3.8% above the top of the 52-week range, continued revaluation depends on achieving the elevated revenue and earnings expectations and executing the development programs without setbacks.
  • −Insiders recorded four sales and no purchases during the three months ending with the latest transaction on August 17, 2026, for net sales of $18.8 million. This remains a weak trading signal compared with operating results because insider sales may be prearranged unless the data disclose otherwise.
  • How important is the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program to Lilly's obesity business?

    The program began on July 1, 2026, to provide approximately 20 million eligible Americans with coverage for GLP-1 obesity medicines at a monthly cost of $50. This increased the number of people covered for the company's obesity medicines by 35%. During the initial weeks, management estimated that 60%–70% of beneficiaries were new treatment users and that approximately 80% chose injectable medicines.

    What are the main catalysts in Eli Lilly's research pipeline after Q2 FY2026?

    Lilly announced positive results from three phase 3 studies of retatrutide, covering obesity, type 2 diabetes, and comorbid cardiovascular disease, and plans to submit it in the U.S. in Q1 FY2027. The BRUIN CLL-322 study showed that adding pirtobrutinib reduced the risk of disease progression or death by 45%, with a 68% reduction among patients previously treated with a covalent BTK inhibitor. selpercatinib also reduced the risk of lung cancer recurrence or death by 83% in the LIBRETTO-432 study, while the VERVE-102 program showed an 88% reduction in PCSK9 and a 62% reduction in LDL cholesterol at the highest dose in the phase 1b study.

    What are the main risks to monitor in LLY's results?

    The first risk is that approximately 65% of Q2 FY2026 revenue depends on Mounjaro and Zepbound, increasing sensitivity to pricing, coverage, and competition. U.S. pricing declined 3% during the quarter, or 9% excluding adjustments to rebate and discount estimates, and management expects further Zepbound price declines as access expands. retatrutide also faces active litigation over the biologics license application pathway, while Novo products and generic versions of semaglutide compete with Lilly's portfolio in several markets.