This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.
Price Target· 12 analysts setting price target
$1359.31
+6.3%
Current Price $1279.14·Median $1388.00
Low
$940.00
High
$1500.00
Current price
$1279.14
Average target
$1359.31
Street summary
Slight increase in LLY price target consensus
Bullish tilt
The average price target rose to 1,359.31, up 0.3% over one day, 1% over 7 days, and 1.21% over 30 days. The number of analysts remained 12 across all three comparisons; the move therefore points to a modest improvement in consensus, with a clear spread between the high target of 1,500 and the low of 940. The average is above the current price of 1,279.14, and the median of 1,388 is above the average.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
Eli Lilly and Company develops and sells medicines for diabetes, obesity, oncology, immunology, and neuroscience, with Mounjaro and Zepbound driving its commercial expansion. The two medicines generated combined revenue of $14.9 billion in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 (ended 2026-06-30), within total revenue of $23.0 billion. The company is expanding its product base through the oral obesity treatment Foundayo and treatments such as Jaypirca for oncology, Ebglyss for immunology, and Kisunla for neuroscience, aiming to make its growth less dependent on its two leading products.
Revenue rose 47.7% compared with the same quarter a year earlier in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 (ended 2026-06-30), while net income reached $7.1 billion and diluted earnings per share were $7.94. Gross margin reached 85.8%, compared with 84.3% in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2025, an expansion of 1.5 percentage points. Operating cash flow according to EL7 data reached approximately $10.7 billion in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, highlighting strong cash generation alongside sales expansion.
Revenue reached $79.7 billion and net income reached $26.7 billion for the trailing 12 months through 2026-06-30. Free cash flow as calculated by EL7 (operating cash flow minus capital expenditures) for the trailing 12 months through 2026-06-30 was approximately $20.1 billion. This cash generation provides a foundation for funding manufacturing and research and development, but the balance sheet according to EL7 data showed total debt of $54.9 billion against cash and short-term investments of $27.7 billion on 2026-06-30, making the pace of commitments and spending an important part of assessing the sustainability of expansion.
Key numbers
Q2 FY2026
Revenue
$23.0B
+47.7%vs a year earlier
Gross margin
85.8%
+1.5ppvs a year earlier
Net income
$7.1B
+25.3%vs a year earlier
Diluted EPS
7.94
+26.2%vs a year earlier
Net cash (cash + short-term investments − debt)
-$27.2B
Last 12 months to 2026-06-30
Revenue
$79.7B
Net income
$26.7B
33.5%of revenue
Free cash flow (operating cash flow − capex)
$20.1B
25.2%of revenue
What changed since the last analysis
A news report dated 2026-10-16 added a positive European recommendation for Foundayo's marketing authorization, supporting its geographic expansion.
A news report dated 2026-10-01 reported Lilly and Foghorn's decision not to continue developing FHD-909 following a review of phase one data.
A news report dated 2026-10-19 reported an agreement with Metis TechBio to develop drug-delivery technologies worth up to $1.1 billion.
A news report dated 2026-10-05 reported expanded FDA approval for Jaypirca to treat leukemia.
What's Driving the Stock
On the 2026-08-05 call, management raised fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $85 billion to $87 billion; delivering on this guidance depends on continued demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound after they generated combined revenue of $14.9 billion in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 (ended 2026-06-30).
Patient access to Foundayo is expanding: management reported on the 2026-08-05 call that the number of prescribing physicians had risen to 36 thousand from 8 thousand at the previous call, and that it was under regulatory review in more than 40 markets; a news report dated 2026-10-16 added a positive European recommendation for marketing authorization, a step preceding full approval.
The Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program began on 2026-07-01, providing coverage for obesity treatments to approximately 20 million eligible Americans. Management said on the 2026-08-05 call that the expansion increased the number of people covered for the company's obesity medicines by 35%; this tests whether broader access can offset the price declines management expects.
Treatment options expanded with FDA approval of Onswik, a weekly basal insulin for adults with type two diabetes, according to news reports dated 2026-09-24 and 2026-09-25, and expanded use of Jaypirca according to a news report dated
Buying & Selling Case
▲ Buying Case8 pts
+Lilly has a clear commercial demand driver: Mounjaro and Zepbound generated combined revenue of $14.9 billion in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 (ended 2026-06-30), alongside total company revenue growth of 47.7% compared with the same quarter a year earlier, demonstrating that expansion is based on products generating actual sales.
+Gross margin expanded to 85.8% in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 (ended 2026-06-30) from 84.3% in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2025, an increase of 1.5 percentage points. This improvement is consistent with management's explanation regarding product mix and production costs and supports profitability as sales grow.
+Earnings are backed by strong cash conversion: operating cash flow according to EL7 data reached $28.1 billion, equivalent to 105% of net income of $26.7 billion for the trailing 12 months through 2026-06-30, supporting the company's ability to fund its operations without relying on accounting profits alone.
+Foundayo offers an opportunity to expand the treatment market with an oral option, with the number of prescribing physicians reaching 36 thousand according to the 2026-08-05
What would change this view
When: 2026-10-29
Update to fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance of $85 to $87 billion in the expected earnings announcement
▲ Positive
Maintaining fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance between $85 billion and $87 billion while confirming strong demand strengthens the buying case by showing that the leading products remain capable of supporting the annual plan.
▼ Negative
Lowering the bottom end of fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance below $85 billion strengthens the selling case by raising doubts about the ability of volumes and product launches to offset pricing pressures.
Revenue test against the $23.0 billion level in the expected earnings announcement
▲ Positive
Quarterly revenue exceeding $23.0 billion, recorded in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 ended 2026-06-30, strengthens the buying case by showing continued expansion despite challenging comparisons.
▼ Negative
Quarterly revenue falling below $23.0 billion, recorded in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 ended 2026-06-30, strengthens the selling case by raising further questions about the impact of pricing and seasonality on sustained growth.
Valuation
The median price target from 12 analysts is $1376, within a range of $940 to $1500, a method that reflects growth expectations and is inherently inclined toward optimism. The industry-multiple valuation is $800, within a range of $476 to $888, using next year's earnings and a median multiple of 18.0 across 13 companies, valuing the company as its peers are valued. The discounted cash flow model yields $783, within a range of $609 to $1069 and at a discount rate of 8.7%, measuring expected cash generation based on analysts' earnings estimates, a model that is inherently inclined toward conservatism. The no-growth value is $353 at a discount rate of 8.7%, representing current after-tax operating profit remaining constant forever. The industry-multiple and discounted cash flow valuations are close, while analyst targets are higher than both and the no-growth value is below all of them, highlighting the effect of expansion expectations on the results and the differences in what each method measures.
BuyAnalyst target: $1,345.8(+5.2%)
Figures in the text are as of 2026-10-19; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
FAQ
How dependent is Eli Lilly on Mounjaro and Zepbound?
Mounjaro and Zepbound generated combined revenue of $14.9 billion in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 (ended 2026-06-30), compared with total company revenue of $23.0 billion. This gives Lilly a major growth driver but concentrates a significant share of performance in diabetes and obesity treatments. Meanwhile, management said global Jaypirca sales grew 56% and Ebglyss sales more than doubled compared with the same quarter a year earlier, showing expansion beyond the two leading products.
Has Foundayo received full approval in the European Union?
A news report dated 2026-10-16 stated that Foundayo received a positive recommendation for marketing authorization from a European Medicines Agency committee, a step toward full approval rather than full approval itself. Management said on the 2026-08-05 call that the drug was under review in more than 40 markets, with broad availability in major markets expected during fiscal year 2027. It also reported that the number of prescribing physicians in the United States had risen to 36 thousand from 8 thousand at the previous call, but converting this reach into sustainable sales remains a commercial test.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
2026-10-05
; these developments add commercial avenues beyond weight-loss treatments alone.
Clinical news reflects varying drug-development prospects: a news report dated 2026-09-21 stated that Novo Nordisk announced weight loss of 12.4% and superiority over a competing Lilly treatment in a late-stage study, while a news report dated 2026-10-01 reported a decision not to continue the FHD-909 program with Foghorn following a review of phase one data.
There were 8 analyst price-target increases and no reductions during the 90 days through 2026-10-19, including Cantor Fitzgerald raising its target on 2026-10-08 to $1440 from $1410, and Morgan Stanley raising its target on 2026-10-07 to $1430 from $1419, reflecting improved analyst expectations for the company.
call, and a positive European recommendation according to a news report dated
2026-10-16
; the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program, which began on
2026-07-01
, also expands access to the company's treatments among a previously uncovered population.
+The portfolio beyond obesity shows growth potential: management said global Ebglyss sales more than doubled and global Jaypirca sales grew 56% in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 (ended 2026-06-30) compared with the same quarter a year earlier, followed by a news report dated 2026-10-05 announcing an expansion of FDA approval for Jaypirca.
+retatrutide offers a path to renewing the obesity treatment portfolio: management announced on the 2026-08-05 call positive results from three phase three trials within the TRIUMPH program and a plan for a U.S. submission in quarter 1 of fiscal year 2027, with data covering obesity, obstructive sleep apnea, and knee osteoarthritis pain.
+Partnerships expand research and technological capabilities: a research and licensing agreement with InnoCare Pharma was announced according to a news report dated 2026-09-24, with a potential total value of approximately $3.35 billion, alongside an agreement to develop drug-delivery technologies with Metis TechBio according to a news report dated 2026-10-19, worth up to $1.1 billion, with returns remaining dependent on development and execution.
+Analyst revisions moved in one direction during the 90 days through 2026-10-19, with 8 price-target increases and no reductions, supporting the case for improving external expectations for the business, although these revisions do not constitute realized operating results.
▼ Selling Case8 pts
−Year-over-year revenue growth slowed to 47.7% in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 (ended 2026-06-30), compared with year-over-year growth of 55.5% in quarter 1 of fiscal year 2026. Management explained on the 2026-08-05 call that adjustments to rebate estimates and some effects of the Mounjaro launch outside the United States would not recur in the same way, making the previous growth pace harder to sustain.
−Pricing is weighing on the quality of sales growth: management said U.S. prices declined 3% in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 (ended 2026-06-30), with the decline reaching 9% excluding adjustments to rebate and discount estimates. It also expected further declines as access expands, making volume growth necessary to protect revenue.
−A large share of the business is tied to two products: combined Mounjaro and Zepbound revenue reached $14.9 billion out of a total of $23.0 billion in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 (ended 2026-06-30), meaning any setback in demand or insurance coverage for them would have a broad impact despite growth in the rest of the portfolio.
−Competition in obesity extends beyond an increasing number of products: a news report dated 2026-09-21 stated that Novo Nordisk announced weight loss of 12.4% and superiority over a competing Lilly treatment in a late-stage study. The 2026-08-05 call also discussed the competitor's expansion in oral treatments, continually testing the differentiation of Foundayo and other treatments.
−The intended regulatory pathway for retatrutide remained unresolved on the 2026-08-05 call: management described ongoing litigation over the biologics license application pathway and the need for additional manufacturing and control data, leaving the planned submission in quarter 1 of fiscal year 2027 exposed to regulatory execution risks.
−The decision not to continue FHD-909 with Foghorn, according to a news report dated 2026-10-01 following a review of phase one data, confirms that investment in portfolio expansion does not guarantee marketable medicines and that clinical results may end programs before they generate commercial returns.
−Total debt according to EL7 data rose 37.6% to $54.9 billion in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 (ended 2026-06-30), compared with $39.9 billion in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2025; it also exceeded cash and short-term investments of $27.7 billion on 2026-06-30, with long-term marketable securities excluded from this comparison.
−Lilly ranked 57 out of 62 within the pharmaceutical industry on EL7's valuation dimension, with a score of 10 out of 100 for data covering the period ended 2026-06-30. This dimension measures the attractiveness of valuation multiples relative to peers, placing a greater burden on delivering expected growth to justify valuation differences.
Gross margin test against the 85.8% level in the expected earnings announcement
▲ Positive
A gross margin of at least 85.8%, the level in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 ended 2026-06-30, strengthens the buying case by confirming the resilience of product mix and production efficiency against pricing pressures.
▼ Negative
A gross margin below 85.8%, the level in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 ended 2026-06-30, strengthens the selling case by weakening the argument for continued improvement in gross profitability.
Do Lilly's earnings translate into actual cash?
Net income reached $26.7 billion for the trailing 12 months through 2026-06-30, compared with operating cash flow according to EL7 data of $28.1 billion, equivalent to 105% of net income. Free cash flow as calculated by EL7 (operating cash flow minus capital expenditures) for the trailing 12 months through 2026-06-30 was approximately $20.1 billion. These figures support earnings quality and the ability to fund expansion, while spending and debt also need to be monitored.
Why is retatrutide both an opportunity and a risk for Lilly?
Management announced on the 2026-08-05 call positive results from three phase three trials within the TRIUMPH program, covering patients with obesity and groups with associated conditions. It outlined a plan for a U.S. submission in quarter 1 of fiscal year 2027 through the biologics licensing pathway. However, it explained that the pathway is subject to ongoing litigation and that some manufacturing and control data are still required, so clinical results alone do not mean the path to approval is complete.
What should be monitored in LLY's earnings announcement expected on 2026-10-29?
The earnings announcement is expected on 2026-10-29, and maintaining fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance between $85 billion and $87 billion will be an important test of management's expectations. Revenue of $23.0 billion and a gross margin of 85.8% in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 (ended 2026-06-30) provide a reference for assessing the next report. The balance between Mounjaro and Zepbound volumes and declining prices also warrants attention, as management said broader access would put pressure on prices and require offsetting volume growth.
