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Home
Stocks
Lennox International Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall61
Balanced — near the middle of the marketContrarianF 5/9Better than 61% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
64
16.3x▲17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
51
-2.1%▼7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
82
29.0%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
68
2.1x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
40
1.38%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
12
-21.7%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
85
16▲3Top tier
LII

LII Lennox International Inc.

Lennox International Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
366.04
▼ ⁦-1.77%⁩ (-6.58)
Market Cap$12.7B
Beta1.20
52w Low52w High
365.70590.99
Last Week
⁦-2.13%⁩
Last Month
⁦-15.99%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-27.16%⁩
Last Year
⁦-38.16%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$366
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$549
⁦+50%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$375–$650⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$300
⁦-18%⁩
Sees it slightly overvalued
⁦9.7⁩% discount · ⁦4⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$300–$549⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$540.38
⁦+47.6%⁩
Current Price $366.04·Median $548.50
Low
$375.00
High
$650.00
Current price
$366.04
Average target
$540.38
Street summary

Slight decline in consensus while divergence remains high

The average price target over the last 30 days fell from 564 to 540.38, a decline of 23.62 or 4.19%, while the number of analysts remained at five. The consensus did not change over the last 7 days or 1 day. Although the consensus and the median, at 548.5, are higher than the current price of 372.62, the target range is very wide, between 375 and 650, reflecting a high degree of divergence in valuations.

As of 2026-09-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-4.2%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.41
Hold
Analyst coverage
17
Buy conviction
41%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
75%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time17 analysts rating
1
6
9
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.24 → 3.41
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-03
    Morgan Stanley
    Underweight
  • = Reiterate2026-07-31
    Goldman Sachs
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-07-30
    RBC Capital
    Sector Perform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    16.31x
    5.69x45.54x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    14.32x
    4.57x36.58x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    13.39x
    3.43x27.47x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    6.4%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -2.1%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -5.2%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    33.5%
    8.6%54.6%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    29.0%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.09x
    0.55x4.37x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    1.4%
    0.1%4.8%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    22.5%
    6.6%80.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-29 data

Company Overview

Lennox International operates in heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration solutions, generating revenue through two integrated segments: Home Comfort Solutions for residential markets and Building Climate Solutions for commercial markets and refrigeration services. In its residential business, the company relies on a direct-to-dealer sales model alongside an indirect distribution channel, while the commercial business benefits from national accounts, emergency replacement, and equipment-related services. It also expands its offering of parts, accessories, and services through the Comfort-Aire, Century, and Coast-Air brands, in addition to the DuraDyne and Supco acquisitions completed in fiscal year 2025 and AES completed in fiscal year 2023.

In quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, revenue increased 3% to $1.5 billion, and total segment profit increased 2% to $355 million, equivalent to a calculated margin of approximately 23.7% of revenue, while adjusted earnings per share remained stable at $7.72. The performance mix was clearly divergent: Home Comfort Solutions revenue declined 7% as units fell 12%, while Building Climate Solutions revenue increased 24%, including 12% organic growth and a 9% contribution from acquisitions. Price and mix supported revenue in each segment by approximately 3%, but weak residential volumes and factory absorption costs constrained profitability.

EDGAR filings show that quarter 1 of fiscal year 2026 generated revenue of $1.1 billion, gross profit of $351.3 million, net income of $117.2 million, and earnings per share of $3.35. On a trailing-twelve-month basis ending in fiscal year 2026, revenue reached $5.3 billion, gross profit $1.8 billion, net income $802.7 million, and earnings per share approximately $22.93. By comparison, fiscal year 2025 recorded revenue of $5.2 billion and net income of $805.8 million, indicating limited revenue growth with net profitability remaining approximately stable on a trailing-twelve-month basis.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Lennox lowered its adjusted earnings per share range for fiscal year 2026 to $23–24 due to expectations for lower residential volumes, while maintaining its total revenue growth outlook at approximately 8% and its free cash flow outlook between $750 million and $850 million.
  • Building Climate Solutions became the primary growth driver after its revenue increased 24% in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, including 12% organic growth and 9% from acquisitions, supported by national accounts, emergency replacement, services growth, and market share gains.
  • Demand deteriorated in Home Comfort Solutions, with revenue declining 7% and units falling 12% in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, while new residential construction revenue dropped approximately 30%. However, the decline in units improved compared with a 21% decrease in quarter 1 of fiscal year 2026, and management stated that the company’s share of the replacement market increased during the twelve months preceding the call.
  • The company completed the acquisition of the Comfort-Aire, Century, and Coast-Air brands after quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 using approximately $200 million of debt. The acquisition adds approximately one percentage point to the company’s revenue growth and two points to Home Comfort Solutions growth, and management expects it to become accretive to earnings per share in fiscal year 2027 through product integration and logistics and administrative expense savings.
  • Net debt to adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization was 1.3 times at the end of quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, and the company repurchased approximately $130 million of shares during the quarter. It also maintained its free cash flow outlook unchanged and lowered its capital expenditure estimate to approximately $225 million from $250 million due to project timing.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Diversification across the residential and commercial markets provides clear support for results; Building Climate Solutions growth of 24% offset a significant portion of the decline in Home Comfort Solutions, allowing total revenue to increase 3% and segment profit to increase 2% in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026.
  • +The commercial business is showing strong operating momentum, with 12% organic growth and market share gains in emergency replacement and national accounts, while the services, refrigeration, and rooftop unit businesses also recorded positive performance according to management.
  • +The pace of residential unit contraction improved from 21% in quarter 1 to 12% in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, and channel inventories normalized with no further destocking. Management expects Home Comfort Solutions volumes to grow at a low-single-digit rate during the second half of fiscal year 2026, driven primarily by the indirect channel.
  • +Liquidity supports the investment thesis despite weak demand, as Lennox maintained its fiscal year 2026 free cash flow outlook at $750–850 million and recorded free cash flow conversion of 92% during the twelve months ending in quarter 2. Net debt of 1.3 times adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization gives the company flexibility to invest and integrate acquisitions.

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $564, within a wide range of $469 to $650, and the stock carries a Neutral consensus; the average target is approximately 4% below the 52-week high of $587.27, while the highest target exceeds that peak. The wide target range reflects disagreement over whether Building Climate Solutions growth and free cash flow will offset the reduced earnings per share outlook and the delayed recovery in residential demand, while the downward revisions referenced in August 2026 warrant some caution toward the average target.

HoldAnalyst target: $564(+54.1%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

Why did Lennox lower its fiscal year 2026 earnings outlook?

Lennox lowered its adjusted earnings per share range to $23–24 after residential volumes came in below its expectations. It revised its Home Comfort Solutions growth outlook to approximately 1% instead of 4%, with volumes expected to decline at a high-single-digit rate during fiscal year 2026. It also lowered its productivity outlook to $60 million from $75 million due to weak factory cost absorption and the deferral of some material cost-reduction initiatives. In contrast, the company maintained its total revenue growth outlook at approximately 8% and free cash flow at $750–850 million.

What caused the divergence between Home Comfort Solutions and Building Climate Solutions?

In quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, Home Comfort Solutions revenue declined 7% as units fell 12% and new residential construction revenue fell approximately 30%. The segment was affected by weak demand and higher absorption costs, in addition to Lennox exiting low- or negative-margin contracts. In contrast, Building Climate Solutions revenue grew 24%, including 12% organically and 9% from acquisitions. Commercial growth came from national accounts, emergency replacement, services, and the contribution from DuraDyne.

What is the significance of Lennox’s acquisition of Comfort-Aire, Century, and Coast-Air?
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −Weak residential demand represents the largest operating risk, as Home Comfort Solutions units declined 12% and its revenue declined 7% in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, while new residential construction revenue fell approximately 30%. The pressures are linked to high interest rates, inflation, weak consumer confidence, and a shift in some demand from replacement to repair, and management expects the most significant portion of the recovery to extend into fiscal year 2027.
  • −The company lowered its adjusted earnings per share outlook for fiscal year 2026 to $23–24 and reduced its Home Comfort Solutions revenue growth outlook to approximately 1% from 4%. The new outlook includes an additional contribution from acquisitions, while residential volume expectations declined by five points, with segment volumes now expected to decrease at a high-single-digit rate during the year.
  • −Home Comfort Solutions margins remain exposed to pressure from lower production, as lower volumes had an approximately $50 million negative impact on operating profit and caused approximately $10 million of factory absorption costs in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026. Management expects second-half margins to remain approximately stable or slightly lower year over year due to acquisitions, the balance of price and cost, and limited volume benefits.
  • −Lennox faces intense pricing competition in new residential construction and exited low- or negative-margin business faster than expected. Management acknowledged that the loss of this business was greater than originally estimated, while growth in the offsetting replacement business was slower than expected, creating a temporary volume gap.
  • −The company lowered its fiscal year 2026 productivity outlook to approximately $60 million from $75 million due to weak cost absorption and the deferral of material cost-reduction initiatives after engineering resources shifted to mitigating the impact of tariffs. The inflation assumption also remained at 5% amid continued pressures in commodities, fuel, and memory, despite tariff recoveries of approximately $25 million in Home Comfort Solutions and approximately $5 million in Building Climate Solutions during quarter 2.
  • −Downward analyst revisions, including the William Blair revision referenced on August 18, 2026, reflect reduced confidence following the quarter 2 fiscal year 2026 revenue miss and the lowered earnings outlook. The 52-week range of $387.45–587.27 underscores the extent of the stock’s repricing, while the analyst consensus is no higher than Neutral.

The acquisition expands Lennox’s access to small and midsized distributors and adds equipment, accessories, and parts to its offering. Management expects it to add approximately one percentage point to the company’s revenue growth and two points to Home Comfort Solutions growth in fiscal year 2026. The company used approximately $200 million of debt to complete the transaction after quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026. Management is targeting a positive contribution to earnings per share during fiscal year 2027 through product integration and logistics and administrative expense savings.

Has Lennox’s residential business begun to recover?

The pace of unit declines improved from 21% in quarter 1 to 12% in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, but remained negative. Management said channel inventory had normalized and channel destocking had ended, while the company recorded a small gain in replacement market share during the twelve months preceding the July 29, 2026 call. Lennox expects Home Comfort Solutions volumes to grow at a low-single-digit rate during the second half of fiscal year 2026, particularly in the indirect channel. However, management expects the most significant portion of the benefit from the residential recovery to extend into fiscal year 2027.

What do Lennox’s liquidity and balance sheet look like?

Net debt to adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization was 1.3 times at the end of quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026. The company achieved free cash flow conversion of 92% during the twelve months and maintained its fiscal year 2026 free cash flow outlook at $750–850 million. It also repurchased approximately $130 million of shares during the quarter and lowered its capital expenditure outlook to approximately $225 million from $250 million due to project timing. After the end of the quarter, it financed the Comfort-Aire and Century acquisition with approximately $200 million of debt.