| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 35 | — | 17.7x | Bottom tier | |
Growth | 82 | 66.5% | 7.1% | Top tier | |
Quality | 3 | -78.0% | 4.5% | Bottom tier | |
Safety | 15 | — | 2.6x | Bottom tier | |
Capital Return | 6 | — | 2.16% | Bottom tier | |
Momentum | 1 | -70.9% | 2.1% | Bottom tier | |
Sentiment | 40 | 6 | 3 | Around median |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Lucid Group develops, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles, with Lucid Air and Lucid Gravity leading its commercial mix, while Gravity accounted for the majority of deliveries in Q2 FY2026. Revenue comes primarily from vehicle deliveries, with an additional contribution from regulatory credits totaling $25 million in that quarter; the company is also seeking to add software, subscription, and autonomous vehicle revenue through its project with Uber and Nuro, but these pathways remain in development or pre-launch.
In Q2 FY2026, Lucid delivered 3,953 vehicles, up 28% from Q1 FY2026 and 19% from the comparable quarter, while production was deliberately reduced 13% sequentially to 4,774 vehicles. Revenue reached approximately $405 million, up 44% sequentially and 56% year over year, supported by higher deliveries, an improved product mix, and a 3.7% sequential increase in average selling price, in addition to $25 million in regulatory credit revenue.
Profitability remained weak despite revenue growth; gross margin was negative 105% in Q2 FY2026, compared with negative 110% in the previous quarter, and included a negative impact of 74 percentage points from the $300 million inventory impairment provision. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization were negative $901 million, compared with negative $781 million in the previous quarter, while free cash flow reached negative $1.476 billion due to working capital investments, including an inventory buildup of completed Gravity vehicles when production exceeded demand. EDGAR filings confirm that losses continued, as FY2025 recorded revenue of $1.4 billion, a gross loss of $1.3 billion, and a net loss of $2.7 billion.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Analyst consensus on LCID is Neutral, with an average price target of $6.4, a high target of $8, and a low target of $5; both the average target and the highest estimate are well below the 52-week range peak of $25.23. No reliable price-to-earnings ratio is available due to net losses, and the breadth of the 52-week range between $2.37 and $25.23 reflects valuation sensitivity to cash burn risks, inventory buildup, and reduced production expectations, balanced against the opportunities from Midsize and the Uber and Nuro project.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-01; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Lucid's revenue reached approximately $405 million, up 44% from Q1 FY2026 and 56% from the comparable quarter. Deliveries increased to 3,953 vehicles, while production was deliberately reduced to 4,774 vehicles, and Gravity remained the majority of deliveries. Average selling price improved 3.7% sequentially, and regulatory credits contributed $25 million. In contrast, gross margin remained at negative 105%, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization were negative $901 million.
Management attributed the negative free cash flow in Q2 FY2026 to working capital investment, particularly the buildup of completed Gravity vehicles when production exceeded demand during the first five months of 2026. The result was also affected by lower accounts receivable collections and continued spending on Midsize and the construction of AMP-2. The company recorded a $300 million inventory impairment provision and reduced fixed purchase commitments to lower future inventory and cash requirements. Management targets returning inventory to a normal level by the end of 2026 and converting it into deliveries and cash.
Lucid identified opportunities to improve cash flow by approximately $1.4 billion during FY2026 through inventory, capital expenditures, and operating expenses. The company reduced its U.S. workforce by one-fifth and eliminated the second shift at the Arizona factory, and it expects the two measures to generate annual savings of $115 million. The plan includes reducing purchase commitments, accelerating the cycle from raw materials to delivered vehicles, improving account collections, and managing payments. Management explained that some improvements are structural, while others relate to deferring spending to 2027.
In August 2026, the project was in the testing and validation stage, using an engineering fleet approaching 100 vehicles in the San Francisco Bay Area and Houston. In July 2026, Lucid began delivering production-validation vehicles assembled in Coolidge, Arizona, and it targets regular production in Q4 FY2026. Management set the service launch for late 2026, with the volume ramp beginning in January 2027 or when the project enters service. The project includes 35,000 units, and management views it as an opportunity to add vehicle, software, and mobility service revenue.
Lucid targets AMP-2 production readiness in early 2027, after completing testing of stamping, body, paint, and final assembly systems. Cosmos prototypes are planned to begin coming out of AMP-2 in early 2027, and Midsize production is expected to begin in the second half of 2027 after passing quality and certification requirements. In August 2026, Atlas drive units and prototypes were in advanced stages of battery, durability, crash, aerodynamics, and cold-weather testing. The supplier network, infrastructure, power, and certain local approvals remain factors that could affect the speed of the factory's launch.
Total liquidity was $3 billion on June 30, 2026, including $800 million in cash and investments and $2.2 billion in available borrowing capacity. After the end of Q2 FY2026, the company drew an additional $800 million from the delayed-draw term loan facility. Management expects the liquidity runway to extend well into 2027, supported by the $1.4 billion cash flow improvement plan. However, it stated that capital needs will depend on the strategic plan currently being finalized and that it will evaluate additional financing alternatives once revenue and cost expectations become clearer.
