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Kura Oncology, Inc.
KURA

KURA Kura Oncology, Inc.

Kura Oncology, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
11.39
▼ ⁦-1.56%⁩ (-0.18)
Market Cap$1.0B
Beta0.38
52w Low52w High
7.3613.66
Last Week
⁦-13.12%⁩
Last Month
⁦+22.74%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+1.24%⁩
Last Year
⁦+53.09%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall11
Poor — bottom quartile of the marketMomentum TrapF 2/9DistressBetter than 11% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
10
—17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
36
-7.3%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
30
-159.9%▼4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
6
—2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
40
—2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
78
30.5%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
93
10▲3Top tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$11
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$24
—
Range ⁦$15–$24⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$22.89
⁦+101.0%⁩
Current Price $11.39·Median $24.00
Low
$15.00
High
$24.00
Current price
$11.39
Average target
$22.89
Street summary

Slight Increase in Consensus Amid Continued Divergence

The consensus price target rose over the last 30 days from 22.57 to 22.89, an increase of 0.32 or 1.42%, while the number of analysts remained at five. The consensus was unchanged over the last day or seven days, while the current range is between 15 and 24, reflecting clear divergence in estimates despite the median being at 24. Compared with the current price of 12.09, the consensus remains higher, but this does not eliminate the wide gap between the two extremes.

As of 2026-09-09
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+1.4%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.07
Buy
Analyst coverage
15
Buy conviction
93%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
79%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time15 analysts rating
2
12
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.07 → 4.07
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-09
    UBS
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-24
    Citigroup
    Market Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-06-04
    Cantor Fitzgerald
    Overweight
Premium content
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-12 data

Company Overview

Kura Oncology is a commercial-stage oncology company building two growth franchises in precision therapies. The first franchise is based on Ziftomenib, marketed as KOMZIFTI for the treatment of relapsed or refractory NPM1-mutated acute myeloid leukemia, with a development program testing it as monotherapy and in combination with venetoclax, azacitidine, gilteritinib, and quizartinib. The second franchise is darlifarnib, a wholly owned asset being developed in combination regimens for renal cell carcinoma and KRAS G12C-mutated solid tumors, with additional opportunities under evaluation in KRAS-mutated pancreatic cancer.

In fiscal Q2 2026, total revenue was $20.9 million, comprising $9.1 million in KOMZIFTI net sales and $11.8 million in collaboration revenue from Kyowa Kirin; approximately 44% from the product and 56% from the collaboration. Gross profit was $20.6 million, representing a calculated gross margin of approximately 98.6%, but the company recorded a net loss of $68.3 million and negative earnings per share of $0.77. Selling, general, and administrative expenses increased to $31.8 million from $25.2 million in the comparable period, while research and development expenses declined slightly to $61.9 million from $62.8 million.

The commercial launch in fiscal Q2 2026 generated approximately 115 new patient starts and more than 250 total prescriptions, and management said KOMZIFTI captured the majority of new patient starts in the menin inhibitor market for relapsed or refractory NPM1 cases. New patient starts grew approximately 35% quarter over quarter, while total prescriptions increased approximately 60%, without a material one-time impact from inventory stocking. Coverage exceeded 95% of insured lives, with approximately 16 million people in a preferred position requiring them to try KOMZIFTI before other menin inhibitors.

What's Driving the Stock

  • KOMZIFTI generated net product revenue of $9.1 million in fiscal Q2 2026, supported by approximately 115 new treatment starts and more than 250 prescriptions, with quarter-over-quarter growth of 35% in new starts and 60% in total prescriptions.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Physician-initiated use in combination with venetoclax and azacitidine or with FLT3 inhibitors represented approximately 40% of new patient starts, a proportion that remained stable compared with the previous quarter despite the increase in overall volume.
  • KOMET-007 data strengthened the opportunity to expand into earlier lines of therapy; in a cohort of 99 newly diagnosed patients, 12-month overall survival was 94%, and median overall survival had not been reached after a median follow-up of 17.6 months. The addition of Ziftomenib also did not appear to meaningfully increase myelosuppression.
  • In the study of Ziftomenib with venetoclax and azacitidine in relapsed or refractory patients, the overall response rate was 87% and the composite complete response rate was 70% among patients who had not previously received venetoclax, while median overall survival had not been reached after approximately 11 months of follow-up.
  • darlifarnib combinations produced multiple clinical signals: the objective response rate was 44% and disease control rate was 94% with cabozantinib among patients previously exposed to it, while response ranged from 33% to 50% and median progression-free survival was 13 months among 34 patients who had not previously received it. Tumor shrinkage was also observed in 77% of response-evaluable patients when combined with adagrasib in KRAS G12C cancers.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +KOMZIFTI captured the majority of new patient starts in the relapsed or refractory NPM1 market during its second full commercial quarter despite entering the market after a competitor, alongside strong quarter-over-quarter growth in starts and prescriptions, with results not dependent on exceptional inventory stocking.
    • +Coverage exceeding 95% of insured lives and the preferred position for approximately 16 million people provide a broad commercial access base that could help the company convert new patient starts into repeat prescriptions and subsequent revenue.
    • +KOMET-007 data support the strategy of expanding Ziftomenib from monotherapy into combinations and frontline treatment, while enrollment in KOMET-017 continues across the United States, Europe, and Asia, with the first topline results targeted for 2028.
    • +darlifarnib gives the company a value driver independent of the menin inhibitor franchise, as its combinations demonstrated activity in renal cell carcinoma and KRAS G12C tumors, with a safety profile that management described as manageable across the tested doses.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −The revenue base remains concentrated in only two sources; in fiscal Q2 2026, $11.8 million, or approximately 56% of revenue, came from the Kyowa Kirin collaboration, while $9.1 million, or approximately 44%, came from KOMZIFTI, making results sensitive to the performance of a single launch and a single collaboration agreement.
    • −KOMZIFTI faces direct competition in the menin inhibitor class, and the call discussed a discrepancy between Kura's estimates and its competitor's estimates of the share of new patient starts. Management also acknowledged that growth combines market expansion with taking share from competing products, meaning the sustainability of its commercial leadership is not assured.
    • −The largest expansion opportunities still depend on future trial results; the first topline results from the intensive KOMET-017 program are expected in 2028, while completion of enrollment in the randomized FIT-001 portion for darlifarnib is expected in the first half of 2027, with preliminary data in the second half of fiscal 2027.
    • −Losses and cash consumption remain high despite the start of commercial revenue; net loss was $68.3 million in fiscal Q2 2026 and $296.8 million over the twelve-month period, while cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments declined from $667.2 million on December 31, 2025, to $519 million on June 30, 2026.
    • −Selling, general, and administrative expenses increased to $31.8 million in fiscal Q2 2026 from $25.2 million in the comparable period, while product revenue remains only $9.1 million; achieving better commercial economics therefore requires prescriptions and revenue to continue growing at a strong pace.
    • −There is no positive price-to-earnings multiple to rely on because of the losses, while analysts' price targets range from $15 to $24, a spread reflecting meaningful differences in estimates of the value of the launch and clinical programs. Insider transaction activity was neutral during the three months ending with the latest transaction on August 24, 2026, with two purchases, three sales, and net proceeds of $1.1 million, although insider sales may be prearranged and do not constitute strong evidence on their own.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $22.89 and a wide range of $15 to $24; both the average and highest targets are above the 52-week range high of $13.9, versus a low of $7.358. No positive price-to-earnings multiple is available because of the twelve-month loss of $296.8 million, so the valuation depends more heavily on continued KOMZIFTI growth and the success of KOMET-017 and darlifarnib, while the wide range of targets highlights the degree of clinical and commercial uncertainty.

    BuyAnalyst target: $22.89(+101.0%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-02; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What did the KOMZIFTI launch achieve in fiscal Q2 2026?

    KOMZIFTI recorded net product revenue of $9.1 million in its second full commercial quarter. New patient starts totaled approximately 115, and total prescriptions exceeded 250, with quarter-over-quarter growth of 35% and 60%, respectively. Management said the product captured the majority of new patient starts in the menin inhibitor market for relapsed or refractory NPM1 cases, without a material contribution from one-time inventory stocking.

    How strong is insurance access to KOMZIFTI?

    In fiscal Q2 2026, KOMZIFTI coverage included more than 95% of insured lives without restrictions on the approved label, according to management. Approximately 16 million people had preferred coverage requiring them to try KOMZIFTI before receiving other menin inhibitors. The company said it had not seen challenges preventing physicians from providing the treatment to patients when going through prior authorization procedures.

    Why is the KOMET-017 study important to the value of Kura Oncology?

    KOMET-017 is testing the expansion of Ziftomenib into frontline treatment of acute myeloid leukemia through a design combining intensive and non-intensive chemotherapy tracks. The program is targeting more than 200 sites, and site activation and patient enrollment were ongoing in the United States, Europe, and Asia as of August 12, 2026. The company maintained its expectation of announcing the first topline results from the intensive chemotherapy track in 2028.

    What clinical evidence supports darlifarnib?

    darlifarnib with cabozantinib achieved an objective response rate of 44% and a disease control rate of 94% among patients previously exposed to cabozantinib. Among 34 patients with advanced clear cell renal cell carcinoma who had not previously received cabozantinib, response ranged from 33% to 50%, and median progression-free survival was 13 months. In KRAS G12C cancers, its combination with adagrasib produced tumor shrinkage in 77% of response-evaluable patients.

    Does Kura Oncology have sufficient funding to reach its key clinical results?

    Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments totaled $519 million on June 30, 2026, down from $667.2 million on December 31, 2025. The company also expects payments of $180 million under its agreement with Kyowa Kirin. According to management, these resources are sufficient to fund the Ziftomenib program in acute myeloid leukemia through the first topline results from the Phase 3 KOMET-017 trial expected in 2028, but this statement does not include a guarantee of funding all darlifarnib opportunities through registration.

    What are the key financial indicators to monitor after fiscal Q2 2026?

    Investors should monitor growth in KOMZIFTI net revenue from a base of $9.1 million, along with the relationship between patient starts, repeat prescriptions, and total prescriptions. They should also monitor the net loss of $68.3 million and selling, general, and administrative expenses, which increased to $31.8 million. The company maintained collaboration revenue guidance of $45 million to $55 million for fiscal 2026, followed by $90 million to $110 million for each of fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028, while clarifying that this revenue represents non-cash accounting recognition of performance obligations.