| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 92 | 7.8x | 17.3x | Top tier | |
Growth | 67 | 37.3% | 7.1% | Top tier | |
Quality | 91 | 24.9% | 4.5% | Top tier | |
Safety | 69 | 0.1x | 2.6x | Top tier | |
Capital Return | 57 | 3.92% | 0.06% | Around median | |
Momentum | 71 | 25.5% | -1.6% | Top tier | |
Sentiment | 55 | 2 | 3 | Around median |
The floor: what the company is worth if growth stopped today
10-year US Treasury yield 4.96% as of 2026-10-22. Estimates computed from company data and analyst targets, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz operates a digital ecosystem combining e-commerce, payments, and financial services within a super app, generating revenue from Marketplace commissions, value-added services like delivery and advertising, payment processing, and its loan portfolio. In e-commerce, gross merchandise value is distributed 53% in Kazakhstan and 47% in Turkiye, while 1P direct sales account for about 20% of the total, particularly e-grocery in Kazakhstan and electronics in Turkiye.
In Q2 FY 2026, reported revenue rose 15% year-over-year, but adjusted EBITDA increased only 5%, and net income remained flat, revealing clear pressure on profitability. Marketplace GMV rose 15% in constant currency, driven by 28% e-commerce growth, and the commission rate increased 110 basis points to 12.1%. By segment, Marketplace revenue grew 11% and adjusted profit 9%, Payments revenue grew 5% with adjusted profit down 1%, while Fintech revenue rose 23% and adjusted profit 6%.
FY 2025 results show a widening annual business volume: revenue reached $4046.1 billion, compared to $2532.2 billion in FY 2024, gross profit was $2866.9 billion, net income $1067.7 billion, and EPS 5592. This equates to an annual revenue growth of approximately 59.8%, but net income only rose about 1.0% from $1056.8 billion, while the calculated gross profit margin dropped from about 88.0% to around 70.9%, a gap confirming that revenue expansion did not translate into profits at the same pace.
Analyst consensus is neutral, with an average target of $107.5, within a range of $100 to $115; the average target is near the high end of the 52-week range of $109.94, while the annual range extends down to $68.59. No P/E ratio is available in the data, limiting traditional comparison, and the neutral consensus aligns with a mix of e-commerce and fintech growth on one hand, and pressure on margins, currencies, and funding costs on the other.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Reported revenue rose 15%, driven by e-commerce and Fintech revenue growth. Marketplace GMV increased 15% in constant currency, while e-commerce grew 28% and the number of purchases exceeded 76 million transactions. Conversely, adjusted profit rose only 5% and net income remained flat due to higher funding costs, investments, and regulatory reserve requirements.
Kaspi.kz launched the Kasper shopping assistant on July 1, 2026, and expanded it to all its users in Kazakhstan within a catalog containing 20 million products and 22 categories. The assistant was used by one in five customers who had access to it, 80% of conversations ended with a product recommendation, and 60% of those recommendations led to a specific product. Response time was about three seconds, adding a product to favorites was twice as fast, and reaching the cart was 30% faster, but management stated the launch is still in an early stage and did not provide a separate financial impact.
The company completed the acquisition of Rabobank and obtained a banking license, intending to invest about $300 million in the bank's capital. During FY 2026, it is focusing on banking systems, risk management, and customer experience, and does not expect a material financial impact from these steps during the same period. In FY 2027, it targets launching shopping finance, merchant finance, and savings, after the new shopping loan on Hepsiburada reached about 0.54% of GMV in June 2026 according to the presentation, while a figure of 0.4% was later mentioned in the Q&A.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The impact has not yet appeared in Q2 FY 2026 results, as the cost of funding rose 150 basis points year-over-year. After the end of the quarter, the company reduced the interest rate on the three-month deposit from 20% to 19%, and the product covers about 30% of the deposit base. Due to the product's duration, management expected the bulk of the benefit to appear after repricing, with a limited impact near the end of FY 2026 and a clearer impact in FY 2027 if interest rate cuts continue.
In Q2 FY 2026, Marketplace revenue grew 11% and adjusted profit 9%, and the commission rate rose to 12.1%. Payments revenue increased 5%, but adjusted profit declined 1% as the commission rate fell seven basis points, while Fintech revenue rose 23% and adjusted profit 6%. The average net loan portfolio grew 18%, and the cost of risk was 0.7% with immediate delinquency indicators remaining low and stable according to management.
Management reaffirmed its guidance for Marketplace GMV growth of about 20%, after achieving 17% in the first half of FY 2026. It also targets growth of nearly 15% in payment volume, 15% in the average net loan portfolio, and about 15% in adjusted profit. Adjusted profit growth was 7% in the first half, so the guidance assumes a second-half acceleration supported by the timing of promotional events and product initiatives, while moderating inflation remains a pressuring factor on payments growth.