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Home
Stocks
The Kroger Co.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall55
Balanced — near the middle of the marketContrarianF 5/8SafeBetter than 55% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
82
27.9x▼17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
12
0.8%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
68
5.7%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
53
3.5x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
82
2.34%▲2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
20
-16.9%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
70
13▲3Top tier
KR

KR The Kroger Co.

The Kroger Co. · NYSE
Market Closed
58.49
▲ ⁦+2.70%⁩ (+1.54)
Market Cap$35.8B
Beta0.41
52w Low52w High
54.1576.58
Last Week
⁦+0.46%⁩
Last Month
⁦+3.98%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-9.26%⁩
Last Year
⁦-13.51%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$58
Analyst target · 10 analysts
$71
⁦+21%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$58–$82⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$69
⁦+18%⁩
Sees it undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$69–$71⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 10 analysts setting price target
$70.90
⁦+21.2%⁩
Current Price $58.49·Median $70.50
Low
$58.00
High
$82.00
Current price
$58.49
Average target
$70.90
Street summary

A slight decline in Kroger’s price targets while dispersion remains high

Kroger’s consensus price target fell from 71.58 to 70.9 over the past 7 and 30 days, a decline of 0.68 or 0.95%, while the number of analysts remained at 10. Although the consensus is above the current price of 56.95, the target range is wide, between 58 and 82, reflecting clear dispersion in valuations; the proximity of the mean to the median also indicates that no extreme outlier is dominating the consensus.

As of 2026-09-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-0.9%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.46
Hold
Analyst coverage
24
Buy conviction
46%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
41%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time24 analysts rating
11
13
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.35 → 3.46
Recent analyst moves
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    Outperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    27.85x
    4.61x36.85x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    10.63x
    3.86x30.86x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    9.74x
    2.86x22.90x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    9.4%
    -37.4%14.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    0.8%
    -16.7%29.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -51.6%
    -135.4%136.3%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    23.3%
    9.2%67.5%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    5.7%
    -29.3%20.8%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    3.54x
    0.61x4.86x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    2.3%
    0.9%8.3%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    65.2%
    15.9%176.6%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    4.55
    -4.825.90
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-03-05 data

Company Overview

The Kroger Co. operates a food retail network that combines physical stores, e-commerce, pharmacies, and fuel, relying on fresh foods and its portfolio of private brands, such as Simple Truth and Private Selection, to attract customers. In addition to retail sales, the company generates alternative profits from its media, Kroger Personal Finance, and Insights businesses; the combined operating profit of these activities reached $1.5 billion in fiscal year 2025. Its e-commerce business also exceeded $16 billion after seven consecutive quarters of double-digit growth.

In quarter 4 of fiscal year 2025, revenue according to EDGAR data was approximately $34.7 billion, and net income was $861 million. The earnings call reported adjusted FIFO operating profit of $1.2 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $1.28, representing annual growth of 12%, while the FIFO gross margin rate, excluding rent, depreciation, amortization, and fuel, was unchanged compared with the same period. The operating mix was led by 20% e-commerce growth, alongside pharmacies and fresh foods, but the higher share of lower-margin pharmacy sales limited margin improvement.

For fiscal year 2025, Kroger recorded revenue of $147.6 billion, net income of $1 billion, and reported earnings per share of $1.54, while adjusted earnings per share reached $4.85, up 9%. Identical sales excluding fuel grew 2.9%, and the adjusted FIFO gross margin improved by 14 basis points despite price reductions on thousands of products. In the September 11, 2026 update, the sales picture appeared weaker, with revenue of $34.62 billion and identical sales excluding fuel growth of 0.2%, compared with adjusted e-commerce growth of 20% and precision marketing profit growth of 24%.

What's Driving the Stock

  • On September 11, 2026, Kroger lowered its annual sales outlook while leaving its earnings-per-share targets unchanged, making the ability of cost savings and growth in higher-profit businesses to protect earnings a key issue for the stock.
  • Adjusted e-commerce sales grew 20% in the latest earnings update, after the digital channel became a business exceeding $16 billion, and the company is targeting e-commerce profitability during the first half of 2026 through a hybrid fulfillment model that relies more heavily on stores, Instacart, DoorDash, and Uber Eats.
  • Management expected sales from delivery services facilitated through external partners to exceed $1.5 billion in 2026 and said the initial results of the relationships with DoorDash and Uber Eats exceeded its original plan and were incremental and profitable.
  • For fiscal year 2026, the company provided a range for identical sales growth excluding fuel of between 1% and 2%, or between 2.3% and 3.3% after excluding the approximately 130-basis-point impact of the Inflation Reduction Act, with adjusted FIFO operating profit expected to be between $5 billion and $5.2 billion and adjusted earnings per share between $5.10 and $5.30.
  • Kroger is investing in expanding Agentic shopping from a digital assistant operating in two departments to all departments during 2026, alongside using artificial intelligence in pricing, shrink reduction, faster order fulfillment, and workforce scheduling.
  • The 2026 restructuring combines the closure of 60 stores, 39 of which had closed by August 13, 2026, and the elimination of approximately 1,000 corporate jobs, with a plan to increase new store openings by 30% and expand in the Jacksonville and Kansas City areas. News on August 13, 2026 also stated that Kroger intends to acquire Giant Eagle for $1.65 billion.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case5 pts

  • +E-commerce provides a clear growth lever, as adjusted sales rose 20% and the business now exceeds $16 billion, while the store- and external partner-based fulfillment model aims to achieve profitability during the first half of 2026.
  • +In fiscal year 2025, Kroger demonstrated its ability to combine price investment with protecting operating economics; adjusted earnings per share grew 9% to $4.85, the adjusted FIFO gross margin improved by 14 basis points, and adjusted free cash flow reached $3.9 billion.
  • +The media, personal finance, and Insights businesses add a higher-profit source than traditional grocery operations, after collectively generating $1.5 billion in operating profit in fiscal year 2025, with double-digit growth targeted for the media business in 2026 and precision marketing profit growth of 24% in the latest update.
  • +Private brands support customer loyalty and product differentiation; Kroger introduced more than 1,100 new Our Brands products in fiscal year 2025, compared with more than 900 in the previous year, with Simple Truth and Private Selection leading the portfolio's growth.
  • +Net debt to adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization being below the target range provides flexibility for investment, while the board of directors approved an additional $2 billion share repurchase program in December 2025 that is expected to be completed by the end of fiscal year 2026.

Valuation

The analyst consensus rates KR stock as a “Buy,” with an average target of $70.9 within a wide range of $58 to $82; the average is below the 52-week range high of $76.58, while the upper end of the target range exceeds that high. The large gap between the lowest and highest targets reflects differing assessments of the ability of e-commerce and media growth and cost savings to offset the reduced sales outlook and slowing unit volumes, and the available data do not provide a valid price-to-earnings ratio for adding another valuation anchor.

BuyAnalyst target: $70.9(+21.2%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-12; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What is driving Kroger's growth outside traditional stores?

Kroger's e-commerce business exceeded $16 billion after seven consecutive quarters of double-digit growth, and its adjusted sales rose 20% in the latest results. The company expects sales from delivery services facilitated through Instacart, DoorDash, and Uber Eats to exceed approximately $1.5 billion during 2026. Its media, Kroger Personal Finance, and Insights businesses also generated combined operating profit of $1.5 billion in fiscal year 2025, and management is targeting double-digit media growth in 2026.

What is Kroger's outlook for fiscal year 2026?

Management expected identical sales excluding fuel to grow between 1% and 2% in fiscal year 2026, with an approximately 130-basis-point negative impact from the Inflation Reduction Act. Excluding this impact, the expected growth range becomes 2.3% to 3.3%. The company is also targeting adjusted FIFO operating profit of between $5 billion and $5.2 billion, adjusted earnings per share of between $5.10 and $5.30, and adjusted free cash flow of between $2.7 billion and $2.9 billion.

Can Kroger's e-commerce business achieve profitability?

Management said on the March 5, 2026 earnings call that it plans to achieve e-commerce profitability during the first half of 2026. This depends on fulfilling more orders from stores close to customers and using Instacart, DoorDash, and Uber Eats to reduce last-mile costs. This path is supported by 20% growth in adjusted e-commerce sales, but achieving the target remains dependent on fulfillment efficiency, product availability, and delivery speed.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −Kroger lowered its annual sales outlook on September 11, 2026 after identical sales excluding fuel grew by only 0.2%, indicating clear pressure from slowing consumer spending despite maintaining its earnings targets.
  • −Unit volumes remain an operational weakness; management said on the March 5, 2026 earnings call that units remained slightly lower during fiscal year 2025 and that it expects the contraction to continue during the first half of fiscal year 2026 before potentially improving later.
  • −The company faces price competition that requires greater investment in prices and promotions during fiscal year 2026, while management explained that some customers find Kroger's offers complicated and that the company still needs to address gaps in pricing and perceived value, placing margin protection under continuous pressure.
  • −The Inflation Reduction Act is expected to reduce identical sales growth excluding fuel by approximately 130 basis points in fiscal year 2026 because of lower reimbursements for major drugs; the company also expects pharmacy growth to slow to the low- or mid-single digits as the shift from branded drugs to generic alternatives accelerates.
  • −The restructuring carries tangible execution risks, as the 2026 plan included closing 60 stores and eliminating approximately 1,000 corporate jobs, alongside capital investments of between $3.8 billion and $4 billion and store openings that initially incur high operating and labor costs before reaching profitability.
  • −Insider activity represents a weak trading signal rather than independent evidence of business deterioration; net selling during the three months ending with the latest transaction on July 14, 2026 was approximately $1.8 million, with one sale and no purchases, and such sales may have been prearranged.
How does Kroger protect its margins while lowering prices?

Kroger relies on procurement and sourcing savings, shrink reduction, and higher e-commerce productivity to fund lower prices and improve service. In fiscal year 2025, the adjusted FIFO gross margin increased by 14 basis points despite greater price investment, while the rate was unchanged in quarter 4 compared with the same period. Management is targeting further improvement in the adjusted gross margin rate during fiscal year 2026, while acknowledging that the lower-margin pharmacy mix and price investments create offsetting pressures.

How important are Our Brands and Fresh to Kroger's performance?

Kroger introduced more than 1,100 new Our Brands products in fiscal year 2025, up from more than 900 products in the previous year. Simple Truth and Private Selection led the portfolio's growth, and private-brand sales continued to outperform national brands when excluding the impact of lower egg prices. Fresh also contributed to growth in quarter 4 of fiscal year 2025, and management noted improved performance in meat, seafood, bakery, and prepared foods.

What are the main pressures to monitor in KR's results?

Identical sales growth excluding fuel fell to 0.2% in the September 11, 2026 update, prompting Kroger to lower its annual sales outlook while maintaining its earnings targets. Management expects unit volumes to remain negative during the first half of fiscal year 2026, alongside a 130-basis-point impact from the Inflation Reduction Act on identical sales. Price competition also requires continued funding from cost savings while the company executes the closure of 60 stores and the elimination of approximately 1,000 corporate jobs.