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Stocks
Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall80
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 5/8Better than 80% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
77
17.0x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
55
3.0%▼7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
71
12.7%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
70
0.9x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
15
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
81
30.8%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
46
4▲3Around median
KOF

KOF Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V.

Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. · NYSE
Market Closed
110.71
▲ ⁦+0.08%⁩ (+0.09)
Market Cap$23.2B
Beta0.53
52w Low52w High
80.22117.09
Last Week
⁦-1.60%⁩
Last Month
⁦+0.76%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+3.33%⁩
Last Year
⁦+30.77%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$111
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$116
⁦+5%⁩
See it fairly priced
Range ⁦$113–$122⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$106
⁦-4%⁩
Sees it fairly priced
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦5⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$106–$116⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$117.00
⁦+5.7%⁩
Current Price $110.71·Median $116.00
Low
$113.00
High
$122.00
Current price
$110.71
Average target
$117.00
Street summary

Coca-Cola Femsa (KOF) Target Price Revision Analysis

Coca-Cola Femsa (KOF) stock saw a 2.15% increase in its average target price over the past week, reaching $118.75, compared to $116.25 at the end of July. This upward adjustment in price targets reflects technical optimism, with the range of the five analysts' forecasts spanning between $113 and $124, indicating low dispersion and a consensus that the stock's fair value exceeds its current price of $108.48.

As of 2026-08-04
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.71
Buy
Analyst coverage
14
Buy conviction
57%
Mixed
Target dispersion
8%
Analyst ratings over time14 analysts rating
2
6
6
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.36 → 3.71
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-07-28
    HSBC
    BuyHold
  • = Reiterate2026-07-14
    UBS
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-05-04
    Barclays
    —· $115.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    17.00x
    4.61x36.85x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    —
    —
  • EV / EBITDA
    8.47x
    2.86x22.90x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    4.9%
    -37.4%14.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    3.0%
    -16.7%29.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    —
    —
  • Gross Margin
    45.8%
    9.2%67.5%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    12.7%
    -29.3%20.8%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.85x
    0.61x4.86x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-27 data

Company Overview

Coca-Cola FEMSA manages a broad beverage portfolio across Mexico, Central America, and South America, including brands such as Coca-Cola, Coca-Cola Zero, Sprite, Fanta, Monster, and Power, alongside water, tea, juices, energy drinks, and sports drinks. The company generates revenue from sales of single-serve, multi-serve, and returnable packages through channels that include traditional trade, with growing reliance on the Juntos+ platform; in Mexico, digital sales represented 38% of traditional trade and 19% of total revenue in Q2 FY2026.

EDGAR data shows continuous growth between FY2020 and FY2024; revenue increased from $183.6 billion to $279.8 billion, net income rose from $10.4 billion to $24.5 billion, and earnings per share climbed from 0.61 to 1.41. In FY2024, gross profit reached $128.7 billion, equivalent to a gross margin of approximately 46.0%, compared with about 46.9% in FY2023 based on revenue of $236.6 billion and gross profit of $110.9 billion.

In Q2 FY2026, consolidated volume increased 3.5% to 1.1 billion unit cases, and revenue grew 4.7% to 76.3 billion Mexican pesos, or 6.6% on a currency-neutral basis. Gross profit rose 8.8% to 35.9 billion pesos, and gross margin expanded 180 basis points to 47.1%, while operating income increased 9.1% to 10.7 billion pesos at a 14.0% margin, and net income attributable to the controlling interest rose 16.9% to 6.2 billion pesos. Mexico and Central America generated revenue of 45.4 billion pesos, versus 30.9 billion pesos for South America; South America was the fastest growth driver, with revenue increasing 11.8% and volume 6.9%, while revenue in Mexico and Central America remained stable despite volume growth of 1.4%.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Market diversification drove growth in Q2 FY2026; volumes increased 17.7% in Colombia, 5.2% in Brazil, 3.4% in Guatemala, and 1% in Mexico, versus a 2.8% contraction in Argentina, lifting consolidated volume by 3.5%.
  • Input costs supported margins; lower sweetener and PET costs and the appreciation of most operating currencies against U.S. dollar-denominated raw material costs contributed to a 180-basis-point expansion in consolidated gross margin to 47.1%. As of Q2 FY2026, the company had hedged 65% of its PET requirements, 96% of sugar, 98% of high-fructose corn syrup, and 73% of aluminum for FY2026.
  • Zero-sugar products and non-carbonated categories continue to drive the mix; Coca-Cola Zero grew 24% in Mexico and 15% in Brazil during Q2 FY2026, while Sprite achieved triple-digit growth in Brazil, and the non-carbonated beverage category there grew 23%, led by Monster, tea, and sports drinks.
  • Digital platforms improved execution quality; the share of digital sales through Juntos+ in Mexico reached 38% of traditional trade and 19% of total revenue, and management reported that 100% of presale representatives in Brazil and Mexico use Adviser. In Mexico, combined portfolio coverage increased by approximately 3 percentage points, while digital tools helped improve order frequency, average basket value, and in-store coverage.
  • Management revised its FY2026 outlook for Mexico volumes from a slight decline to approximately stable performance after June 2026 improved to growth exceeding 12%, while consumption and competition remained challenging. The company intends to complete the pass-through of the inflation gap in pricing during August 2026 after passing through only about 85% of the impact of the excise tax and inflation at the beginning of FY2026.
  • The company is investing between 7% and 7.5% of FY2026 revenue in capital expenditures and has opened a PET production line in Costa Rica and an aluminum can line in Uruguay. These investments aim to support manufacturing capacity, while management expects to launch additional items from Mexico's innovation pipeline between Q4 FY2026 and H1 FY2027.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Q2 FY2026 delivered growth above revenue at the key profitability levels; gross profit increased 8.8%, operating income 9.1%, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization 12.1%, and net income attributable to the controlling interest 16.9%, compared with revenue growth of 4.7%.
  • +South America provides a strong expansion driver; its revenue increased 11.8% to 30.9 billion Mexican pesos, operating income rose 46.5% to 4.3 billion pesos, and operating margin expanded 330 basis points to 13.9% in Q2 FY2026. Even after excluding the 265 million peso insurance compensation in Brazil, management described the improvement in Brazil and Colombia as driven by operating leverage and labor and rental efficiencies.
  • +The product portfolio still has identifiable growth opportunities; the Coca-Cola Zero mix was only about 4% in Mexico versus 30% in Brazil, and management said the noticeable shift from the original version to zero sugar typically begins near a 20% mix. In Brazil, the company gained 400 basis points of share in flavors, while Monster grew within an energy category that achieved compound growth of approximately 25% over the four quarters ended Q2 FY2026.
  • +Hedges provide greater cost visibility; the company covered nearly all of its sugar and high-fructose corn syrup exposure in FY2026 and began FY2027 hedges at 80% for each and 54% for aluminum. Lower sweetener and PET costs have already been reflected in the expansion of consolidated gross margin to 47.1% in Q2 FY2026.

Valuation

The average analyst target for KOF shares is approximately $117, versus a low target of $113 and a high target of $122, while the consensus remains Neutral. The average target is approximately at the top of the 52-week range of $80.22–$117.09, so the estimates reflect a balance between South American margin expansion and earnings growth on one hand, and Mexican consumer weakness and regulatory risks in Brazil on the other.

HoldAnalyst target: $117(+5.7%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What were Coca-Cola FEMSA's key results in Q2 FY2026?

Revenue increased 4.7% to 76.3 billion Mexican pesos, and volume grew 3.5% to 1.1 billion unit cases in Q2 FY2026. Gross profit rose 8.8% to 35.9 billion pesos, with gross margin expanding 180 basis points to 47.1%. Operating income also increased 9.1% to 10.7 billion pesos, and net income attributable to the controlling interest climbed 16.9% to 6.2 billion pesos.

Why was South America the strongest growth driver for KOF shares?

South American volumes increased 6.9% to 426 million unit cases, and its revenue rose 11.8% to 30.9 billion Mexican pesos in Q2 FY2026. The strength came from volume growth of 5.2% in Brazil and 17.7% in Colombia, despite a 2.8% decline in Argentina. The division's operating income increased 46.5% to 4.3 billion pesos, and its margin expanded 330 basis points to 13.9%, supported by operating leverage, lower costs for some raw materials, and insurance compensation of 265 million pesos in Brazil.

What is pressuring Coca-Cola FEMSA's business in Mexico?

In Q2 FY2026, Mexico faced an excise tax increase, weak consumption, and intense competition, so the company passed through only about 85% of the tax and inflation impact. Consumers shifted strongly toward lower-priced multi-serve packages, pressuring mix and revenue despite 1% volume growth. Management expects approximately stable volumes for Mexico in FY2026, after previously expecting a slight decline, but it will monitor the consumer response after completing the price adjustment in August 2026.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −Results depend heavily on the Mexico and Central America division, which represented approximately 59.5% of Q2 FY2026 revenue, but its revenue remained stable at 45.4 billion Mexican pesos, its operating income declined 7% to 6.4 billion pesos, and its operating margin contracted 110 basis points. This weighting makes the slowdown in Mexican consumption and the excise tax significant factors in consolidated performance.
  • −The competitive and purchasing-power environment in Mexico remains challenging; the company passed through only about 85% of the tax and inflation impact, consumers shifted more than expected toward lower-priced multi-serve packages, and management expects mix pressure to continue throughout FY2026. Completing the inflation-gap pass-through in August 2026 may also test demand elasticity, so management kept its Mexico volume outlook approximately stable rather than projecting clear growth.
  • −Reported growth in Colombia may slow after the 17.7% volume increase in Q2 FY2026 because management said comparisons in Q3 and Q4 FY2026 will be more difficult after activity began recovering in the corresponding FY2025 period. In Argentina, volume declined 2.8% because of a truck drivers' strike and continued weak demand, with additional pressure from value-oriented brands.
  • −Brazil faces potential regulatory changes in FY2027, including a possible excise tax and a potential adjustment to the workweek system, and as of July 27, 2026, management did not have clarity on the size of the cost or tax. It warned that the labor adjustment could be inflationary and disruptive in a labor market near full employment, potentially making FY2027 an adjustment year for Brazil.
  • −Margin expansion remains exposed to raw material and expense volatility; freight costs increased 20% and marketing expenses rose 9% in Mexico and Central America during Q2 FY2026, while higher aluminum and secondary packaging costs offset part of the input-cost improvement in South America. PET hedges for FY2027 were less advanced than sweetener and aluminum hedges because of energy and Middle East volatility.
  • −Analyst consensus on KOF is Neutral, although the average target of $117 is approximately at the upper end of the 52-week range of $117.09, with a narrow target range between $113 and $122. The average target's proximity to the annual high indicates that demonstrating additional value requires continued South American growth and Mexico's return to profitable growth, rather than relying solely on a consensus-driven re-rating.
What role do Coca-Cola Zero, Monster, and Sprite play in KOF's growth?

Coca-Cola Zero grew 24% in Mexico and 15% in Brazil during Q2 FY2026, while its mix reached approximately 4% in Mexico and 30% in Brazil. In Brazil, Sprite achieved triple-digit growth, and flavors helped the company gain 400 basis points of share. Brazil's energy drink category also grew at a compound rate of approximately 25% over the four quarters ended Q2 FY2026, with improved Monster coverage and household penetration.

How does Coca-Cola FEMSA protect its margins from raw material volatility?

As of Q2 FY2026, the company had hedged 65% of PET, 96% of sugar, 98% of high-fructose corn syrup, and 73% of aluminum. For FY2027, the company began with hedges covering 80% of sugar, 80% of high-fructose corn syrup, and 54% of aluminum, while PET hedges remained less advanced. Lower sweetener and PET costs and the appreciation of operating currencies against the U.S. dollar helped expand consolidated gross margin to 47.1% in Q2 FY2026, but higher aluminum, freight, and secondary packaging costs remained a source of pressure.

What do the analyst outlook and valuation for KOF shares look like?

Analyst consensus on KOF is Neutral, and the average price target is $117, within a range of $113 to $122. The average target is approximately at the top of the 52-week range of $117.09, while the bottom of the range is $80.22. This consensus balances FY2024 net income growth to $24.5 billion and South America's strength in Q2 FY2026 against weakness in Mexico and potential tax and labor risks in Brazil during FY2027.