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Kinetik Holdings Inc.
KNTK

KNTK Kinetik Holdings Inc.

Kinetik Holdings Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
54.75
▲ ⁦+1.01%⁩ (+0.55)
Market Cap$4.0B
Beta0.77
52w Low52w High
31.3356.92
Last Week
⁦+1.16%⁩
Last Month
⁦+11.33%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+20.25%⁩
Last Year
⁦+28.01%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall72
Strong — clearly above market medianTurnaroundF 5/8Better than 72% of Market stocks, per EL7's modelUnsustainable dividend (payout > 100%)
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
52
19.3x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
77
14.1%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
49
5.4%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
39
4.5x▼2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
70
5.65%▲2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
87
19.8%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
38
8▲3Bottom tier
Fair Value
Current price$55
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$56
⁦+2%⁩
See it fairly priced
Range ⁦$51–$70⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$63
⁦+14%⁩
Sees it undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦6⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$56–$63⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$56.56
⁦+3.3%⁩
Current Price $54.75·Median $56.00
Low
$51.00
High
$70.00
Current price
$54.75
Average target
$56.56
Street summary

Gradual improvement in Kinetik targets amid continued divergence

Bullish tilt

The average price target rose to 56.56 from 55.33 over seven days, and to 56.56 from 54.38 over 30 days, an increase of 2.22% and 4.01%, respectively, with no change in the number of analysts, which remains at five. Compared with the current price of 54.75, the consensus and median at 56 and 56.56 indicate limited upside, while the range between 51 and 70 reflects clear divergence in estimates.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+4.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.06
Buy
Analyst coverage
17
Buy conviction
76%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
35%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time17 analysts rating
5
8
4
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.07 → 4.06
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-10
    Deutsche Bank
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-09-10
    Scotiabank
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-09-09
    Jefferies
    Hold
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    19.35x
    3.56x28.47x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    31.73x
    3.36x26.89x
    Expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    13.73x
    2.12x16.98x
    Above average
  • FCF Yield
    8.9%
    -21.0%15.7%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    14.1%
    -19.7%63.1%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    284.9%
    -141.8%256.7%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    40.1%
    7.8%72.1%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    5.4%
    -12.7%20.6%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    4.52x
    0.40x3.19x
    High debt
  • Dividend Yield
    5.6%
    0.4%10.1%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    109.2%
    11.9%109.0%
    High
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-05-07 data

Company Overview

Kinetik Holdings Inc. operates an integrated energy infrastructure platform in the Permian Basin, with a clear focus on the Delaware Basin in Texas and New Mexico. The company generates revenue from natural gas processing and the transportation of residue gas, crude oil, and water, in addition to pipeline transportation of products and marketing tied to price differentials between Waha and the Gulf Coast. It is also increasing the fee-based share of the Durango contracts; when acquired, the Durango business consisted of approximately 60% fees and 40% commodity exposure, and the fee percentage subsequently increased after the contracts were restructured, although it remained below the 85% to 90% level in the Delaware South business.

On August 7, 2026, the company announced record results for Q2 fiscal 2026, with revenue growth of 36% and a 35% increase in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, supported by improved midstream operations in the Delaware Basin and increased natural gas liquids recovery. The latest detailed EDGAR figures available, for Q1 fiscal 2026, show revenue of $410.0 million, a net loss of $1.7 million, and a loss per share of $0.07, compared with revenue of $430.4 million and net income of $143.2 million in Q4 fiscal 2025.

On an adjusted operating basis, Q1 fiscal 2026 posted a record $251 million in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, along with distributable cash flow of $181 million and free cash flow of $101 million. The Midstream Logistics segment generated $179 million in adjusted earnings, up 12% year over year despite approximately flat volumes, while the Pipeline Transportation segment generated $78 million, with the year-over-year decline reflecting the sale of EPIC Crude and lower transportation volumes through Chinook. In fiscal 2025, revenue was $1.8 billion, net income was $178.3 million, and earnings per share were $2.63.

What's Driving the Stock

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

The widening price differential between Waha and Houston Ship Channel was a key earnings driver in Q1 fiscal 2026; marketing gains more than offset price-related production curtailments of approximately 170 million cubic feet per day and helped the Midstream Logistics segment post $179 million in adjusted earnings.
  • The company expanded the dedicated acreage for a major customer in New Mexico by approximately 25% and extended the consolidated contract through 2039, bringing the contracts amended within four months to those covering nearly 75% of legacy Durango gas processing volumes. Management estimated the fiscal 2026 impact of these amendments at 1% to 2% of the base business, with higher margins and fee-based share and an extension of contracted revenue duration into the mid-to-late 2030s.
  • Management reaffirmed the fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization range of $950 million to $1.05 billion, after Q1 posted a record $251 million and exceeded the previous internal range of $230 million to $240 million. It also maintained its expectations of $230 million to $240 million for Q2 and $260 million to $270 million for each of Q3 and Q4 fiscal 2026.
  • The company estimates that natural gas liquids basket and propane prices more than 20% above, and West Texas Intermediate crude more than 30% above, the February 13, 2026 curve could add approximately $20 million to fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, excluding the impact of marketing differentials. Approximately 75% of propane and butane exposure and approximately 85% of crude oil and C5+ condensate exposure were hedged, compared with hedging of approximately 50% of transportation differential exposure in 2026.
  • Capacity expansions include the ECCC project, the conversion of King’s Landing for sour gas processing, and a 40-megawatt behind-the-meter power generation solution at Diamond Cryer. The King’s Landing conversion targets full Phase 1 service by the end of 2026, increasing total operational sour gas processing capacity to 26.5 million cubic feet per day and permitted capacity to more than 31 million cubic feet per day.
  • Kinetik signed an interconnection agreement with Pecos Power that requires no capital expenditure from Kinetik to connect the Delaware Link pipeline to the Pecos Power facility in Reeves County. The agreement adds a fee-based revenue opportunity from gas transportation and flexible hourly services and replicates the model the company used with CPV Basin Ranch to meet power generation demand in West Texas.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The results for Q1 and Q2 fiscal 2026 demonstrate clear operating strength: adjusted operating profit in Q1 reached a record $251 million, followed by the company reporting 36% growth in Q2 revenue and 35% growth in adjusted earnings on August 7, 2026.
    • +Contract quality in New Mexico improved with amendments to contracts covering approximately 75% of legacy Durango volumes, a 25% expansion of a major customer’s acreage, and the extension of the consolidated agreement through 2039; these steps increase fees, margins, and long-term visibility.
    • +The company has a defined expansion path combining ECCC, the King’s Landing sour gas conversion, and the 40-megawatt Diamond Cryer project, with approximately $320 million of the midpoint of the $480 million capital expenditure budget allocated to New Mexico in fiscal 2026.
    • +Transportation capacity to the Gulf Coast provided practical financial protection from disruption at Waha; it turned curtailments of approximately 170 million cubic feet per day in Q1 fiscal 2026 from a potential pressure on volumes into a positive margin contribution, while full-year earnings guidance remained at $950 million to $1.05 billion.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Kinetik lowered its fiscal 2026 processed gas volume growth forecast from a high-single-digit percentage to a low-to-mid-single-digit percentage after raising its estimate of price-related curtailments to an average of 220 million cubic feet per day. The 120 million cubic feet per day increase from the prior assumption represents more than six percentage points of the original growth forecast.
    • −Exposure to the Waha hub remains a significant operational and financial risk; the average daily price was negative $4.81 in March and April 2026, and management discussed the potential risk if prices tested unprecedented lower levels such as negative $15 per million British thermal units. The company also has no fee floors in its gathering and processing business, leaving some price-sensitive volumes vulnerable to curtailment.
    • −Offsetting production curtailments depends partly on the persistence of Waha-to-Gulf Coast differentials and pipeline reliability, while hedging covers only approximately 50% of transportation differential exposure in fiscal 2026 and typically declines during spring and fall maintenance seasons. Narrower differentials or an unexpected pipeline outage could reduce marketing gains before curtailed volumes return.
    • −The growth program requires significant capital expenditure ranging from $450 million to $510 million in fiscal 2026, after spending $91 million in Q1, with approximately 70% of the budget allocated to New Mexico. Achieving returns depends on delivering ECCC, the King’s Landing conversion, and infrastructure projects on schedule, while leverage stood at 3.9 times at quarter-end.
    • −EDGAR figures showed sharp volatility in profitability; the company moved from net income of $143.2 million in Q4 fiscal 2025 to a net loss of $1.7 million in Q1 fiscal 2026, despite strong adjusted operating earnings and cash flows. This divergence between net income and adjusted metrics makes assessing earnings quality more complex.
    • −

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus rates KNTK as “Buy,” with an average target of $55.33 and a wide range of $51 to $70; the average sits directly below the 52-week high of $56.10, while the highest target clearly exceeds that high. No published price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data, and the shift from net income of $143.2 million in Q4 fiscal 2025 to a loss of $1.7 million in Q1 fiscal 2026 makes reliance on a fixed earnings multiple less appropriate. The valuation therefore depends more heavily on achieving the fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings range of $950 million to $1.05 billion, the sustainability of marketing gains, and the return of volume growth after Waha curtailments.

    BuyAnalyst target: $55.33(+1.1%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What is driving Kinetik’s growth in fiscal 2026?

    Momentum came from improved midstream operations in the Delaware Basin, increased natural gas liquids recovery, and wider transportation differentials to the Gulf Coast. On August 7, 2026, the company announced 36% revenue growth and 35% growth in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for Q2 fiscal 2026. Q1 fiscal 2026 also posted record adjusted earnings of $251 million and free cash flow of $101 million.

    How do negative Waha prices affect KNTK’s business?

    Negative prices prompted some gas price-sensitive customers to curtail production, with curtailments averaging approximately 170 million cubic feet per day in Q1 fiscal 2026. The company raised its fiscal 2026 curtailment estimate to an average of 220 million cubic feet per day and lowered its processed gas growth forecast to a low-to-mid-single-digit percentage. In contrast, gains from the differential between Waha and Houston Ship Channel offset this volume loss in Q1, but only approximately 50% of transportation differential exposure was hedged in 2026.

    How important are the ECCC and King’s Landing projects to Kinetik’s growth?

    ECCC connects the Delaware North system to processing capacity and markets in Delaware South, allowing additional New Mexico volumes to be accommodated without waiting for a new processing facility to be built. The King’s Landing sour gas conversion project targets Phase 1 startup by the end of 2026, with total operational sour gas capacity of 26.5 million cubic feet per day and permitted capacity exceeding 31 million. The company also obtained BLM and NMOCD approvals and began construction work and ordering long-lead materials.

    Did Kinetik maintain its fiscal 2026 guidance despite lowering its volume forecast?

    Yes, management reaffirmed the adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization range of $950 million to $1.05 billion for fiscal 2026. The company expects improved commodity margins and gains from marketing gas to the Gulf Coast to offset part of the impact of Waha curtailments and estimated the impact of higher commodity prices at approximately $20 million in additional earnings. It also maintained expected capital expenditure of $450 million to $510 million after spending $91 million in Q1 fiscal 2026.

    How did the Durango contracts change, and what is their impact on KNTK?

    The company amended contracts covering nearly 75% of legacy Durango gas processing volumes during the four months preceding the May 7, 2026 call. This included expanding the dedicated acreage for a major customer in New Mexico by approximately 25% and consolidating multiple agreements into a contract extending through 2039. Management estimated the fiscal 2026 earnings increase at approximately 1% to 2% of the base business, with a higher share of fee-based revenue and reduced commodity exposure.

    What are the main indicators to monitor in KNTK’s results?

    The indicators include the volume of Waha price-related curtailments compared with the assumed fiscal 2026 average of 220 million cubic feet per day and the ability of marketing gains to offset them. Achievement of the adjusted earnings range of $230 million to $240 million in Q2, followed by $260 million to $270 million in each of Q3 and Q4 fiscal 2026, should be monitored. The startup schedules for ECCC and Phase 1 of the King’s Landing conversion by the end of 2026, along with leverage remaining near the reported level of 3.9 times, are also key execution indicators.

    Insiders recorded net sales of $46.6 million during the three months ending with the latest transaction on August 26, 2026, with 19 sales and no purchases. This remains a weak trading signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged, and the data provided did not include evidence to the contrary.