| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 58 | 23.5x | 17.8x | Around median | |
Growth | 41 | 12.1% | 7.1% | Around median | |
Quality | 35 | 7.3% | 4.5% | Bottom tier | |
Safety | 40 | 3.7x | 2.6x | Bottom tier | |
Capital Return | 18 | — | 2.12% | Bottom tier | |
Momentum | 14 | -19.3% | 2.9% | Bottom tier | |
Sentiment | 47 | 4 | 3 | Around median |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Knife River Corporation operates in the production of aggregates, ready-mix concrete, asphalt, liquid asphalt, and prestressed concrete, alongside contracting and paving services, through its West, Mountain, Central, and Energy Services segments. Its economic model is based on vertical integration: it supplies raw materials to its plants and projects and generates profits across multiple stages of a project, whether as a supplier, prime contractor, or subcontractor. The strength of this model is underpinned by the fact that approximately 90% of aggregate volumes come from markets where the company holds a leading position, while product diversification allows it to shift between public infrastructure work and private demand.
In Q1 FY2026, revenue was $410.1 million, compared with a gross loss of $2.8 million and a net loss of $79.2 million, while loss per share was $1.40. Despite this seasonal loss, management reported that revenue and adjusted EBITDA increased 16% year over year and that the adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 290 basis points. The aggregate margin also improved by 390 basis points, and volumes increased 26% for aggregates, 33% for ready-mix concrete, and 42% for asphalt, while contracting services recorded higher revenue but lower margins during the quarter.
FY2025 revenue was approximately $3.1 billion, with gross profit of $577.3 million, net income of $157.1 million, and earnings per share of $2.76. On a last-twelve-month basis through Q1 FY2026, revenue increased to $3.2 billion, gross profit was $584.2 million, and net income was $146.6 million. The business mix reflects contributions from aggregates, ready-mix concrete, asphalt, and contracting, with the Mountain segment benefiting from favorable weather and a record backlog, the Central segment from Texcrete, and the West segment from improved private activity and higher aggregate volumes.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $85.25, a low of $73, and a high of $103; the average is below the 52-week high of $96.28, while the highest target exceeds that peak. The $30 spread in targets reveals a clear divergence in estimates of the impact of the backlog and acquisitions versus the seasonal loss and fuel and execution pressures. The absence of a reported P/E ratio also makes earnings per share of $2.76 in FY2025 and the Q1 FY2026 loss more appropriate reference points than an unavailable multiple.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Knife River’s net loss was $79.2 million in Q1 FY2026, with a gross loss of $2.8 million and a loss per share of $1.40. Management explained on the May 5, 2026 call that the first quarter represents only approximately 10% of annual revenue and falls within the seasonally weak period before most construction and paving work begins. At the same time, revenue and adjusted EBITDA increased 16% year over year, and the adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 290 basis points. Therefore, the loss reflects the seasonality of the business, while volume and adjusted margin indicators measure improvement compared with the corresponding period.
Knife River ended Q1 FY2026 with a record backlog of approximately $1.2 billion, up 25% year over year. Management expects to execute approximately 75% of this backlog during FY2026, providing clearer visibility into activity during the construction season. The backlog includes a high share of asphalt paving, an activity that can draw aggregates, liquid asphalt, and other materials from within the company. Earnings may also benefit from execution-quality incentives that are typically paid when projects close in Q3 and Q4 FY2026.
Knife River paid $174 million to complete the three acquisitions during Q1 FY2026 and said the deal multiples were in the high-single-digit range. Morgan Asphalt gives the company an aggregate-based platform in Salt Lake City, with reserves and asphalt and paving operations that can be expanded through vertical integration. The Sparrow Enterprises and Donaldson Brothers Ready-Mix deals strengthened the company’s presence in Montana. Management expects savings from purchasing power, operational improvements, and the integration of back-office functions, but it did not provide a specific figure for these savings.
The company consumes between 20 million and 25 million gallons of diesel annually, approximately half in road vehicles and the other half in heavy equipment and project sites. On the May 5, 2026 call, management estimated that advance purchasing, fuel surcharges, energy-escalation clauses, and dynamic pricing provide protection for approximately 80% of this consumption. It also reaffirmed its target of expanding the aggregate margin by at least 200 basis points in FY2026 after a 390-basis-point improvement in the first quarter. Recently acquired companies remain less advanced in implementing dynamic pricing, although Knife River has begun training them on the system.
Transportation department budgets in Knife River states increased by approximately 15% during FY2026, compared with no growth in other states according to management’s presentation. Transportation budgets in the West segment were approximately $34 billion, up 13%, and approximately $31 billion in the Central segment, up 16%. The company also cited demand from data centers and military, energy, and semiconductor investments, including a naval project in Pearl Harbor and projects in Treasure Valley. These projects support sales of aggregates, ready-mix concrete, asphalt, and contracting services within the company’s vertically integrated model.
On May 5, 2026, management reaffirmed the guidance issued in February and said that revenue and adjusted EBITDA were trending toward the upper half of their respective ranges. It expects mid-single-digit growth in reported aggregate prices, aggregate margin expansion of at least 200 basis points, and mid-teens growth in ready-mix concrete volumes. It also maintained its expectation for mid-single-digit asphalt volume growth and improvement in the contracting services margin during FY2026. This outlook is supported by the $1.2 billion backlog, the three acquisitions, improved volumes, and cost control.
