EL7.AI
Strategy BuilderCOT DataAdvanced NewsResearchNewEarnings CalendarEconomic Calendar
We use cookiesPrivacy Policy
EL7.AIEL7.AI

AI Financial Intelligence
Professional analysis of central bank decisions

© 2026 EL7.AI. All rights reserved.

Markets

  • News
  • Forex
  • Stocks
  • Crypto
  • Gold
  • Commodities
  • Indices
  • ETFs

Analysis

  • Fed
  • ECB
  • BLS
  • COT
  • Economic Calendar

Learn

  • Service Guide
  • Oil

Company

  • About
  • Contact
  • Data Methodology
  • AI Disclosure
  • Pricing
  • Enterprise
  • Terms
  • Privacy
  • Security
  • WhatsApp
Status data is currently unavailable

The information provided on EL7.AI is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

Home
Stocks
CarMax, Inc.
KMX

KMX CarMax, Inc.

CarMax, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
61.32
▲ ⁦+1.32%⁩ (+0.80)
Market Cap$8.7B
Beta1.17
52w Low52w High
30.2665.28
Last Week
⁦-0.18%⁩
Last Month
⁦+5.40%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+33.22%⁩
Last Year
⁦+2.73%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall28
Weak — below market medianTurnaroundF 6/9DistressInsider cluster buyBetter than 28% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
54
38.1x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
18
-1.6%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
42
-2.3%▼4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
37
15.4x▼2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
79
—2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
80
-4.2%▼2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
96
12▲3Top tier
Fair Value
Current price$61
Analyst target · 6 analysts
$50
⁦-18%⁩
See it slightly overvalued
Range ⁦$43–$66⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$-19.62
⁦-132%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦9.6⁩% discount · ⁦2⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$-19.62–$50⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

Compare in the screener
Premium content

Get Your Premium Account Now

  • Stock Deep Analysis
  • The Advanced News Platform
Recommended
Annual plan
$17/mo
Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 6 analysts setting price target
$52.11
⁦-15.0%⁩
Current Price $61.32·Median $50.00
Low
$43.00
High
$66.00
Current price
$61.32
Average target
$52.11
Street summary

Stable Targets with Limited Dispersion in Valuations

The average price target remained unchanged at 52.11 over the last day, 7 days, and 30 days, despite the number of analysts increasing from 4 to 6 over the last 7 days and from 5 to 6 over the last 30 days. The current range is between 43 and 66, with a median of 50, reflecting clear dispersion among the estimates; the current price of 61.32 is also above both the average and median target prices.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.00
Hold
Analyst coverage
⁦19 (+1)⁩
New coverage
Buy conviction
16%
Target dispersion
38%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time19 analysts rating
1
2
14
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months2.70 → 3.00
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-07-21
    Barclays
    UnderweightNeutral
  • = Reiterate2026-06-23
    UBS
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-06-18
    Benchmark
    Hold
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    38.09x
    4.56x36.49x
    Expensive
  • Forward P/E
    20.99x
    3.79x30.29x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    24.15x
    2.75x22.03x
    Expensive
  • FCF Yield
    11.4%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -1.6%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -55.5%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    10.5%
    12.0%66.5%
    Weak
  • ROIC
    -2.3%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Near median
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    15.36x
    0.65x5.48x
    Financial risk
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    1.58
    -2.656.14
    Near median
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-06-17 data

Company Overview

CarMax operates in the U.S. used-car market by selling vehicles at retail and wholesale, financing customers through CarMax Auto Finance, and selling extended protection plans and related products. The company relies on a store network that reaches 85% of the U.S. population and digital capabilities that connect search, reservation, and prequalification with the physical visit, while also moving more than two million cars annually between its locations. Profit is also generated from vehicle reconditioning and related services, while the company seeks to increase the value of each transaction by raising financing penetration and improving extended protection plan margins.

In fiscal Q1 2027, revenue reached $8.0 billion, up 6.2% year over year, with approximately 392 thousand vehicles sold across the retail and wholesale channels, up 3.3%. Gross profit was $854.4 million, equivalent to a gross margin of approximately 10.7%, and declined 4% year over year, while net income was $185.6 million, with a net margin of approximately 2.3%, and diluted earnings per share of $1.31 versus $1.38 in the comparable period.

Gross profit in fiscal Q1 2027 was distributed among $501 million from used-car retail, $169 million from wholesale, and $184 million from other activities; approximately 59%, 20%, and 22%, respectively. Wholesale units rose 8.4%, while total retail units grew slightly and comparable-store unit sales declined 0.8%. The average retail selling price was $27,288, up $1,168, while the average wholesale price was $8,364, up $405.

What's Driving the Stock

  • On June 17, 2026, management launched a four-pillar growth strategy: improving the assortment, simplifying the customer experience, increasing the value of each transaction, and operating with a lower-cost structure; the initiatives include incorporating more granular local market data into pricing algorithms and improving the connection between the digital experience and stores.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Pricing and marketing flexibility support sales acquisition, as revenue rose 6.2% and units sold across retail and wholesale increased 3.3% in fiscal Q1 2027, despite a 0.8% decline in comparable-store retail unit sales. Advertising expenses increased by $8 million to fund acquisition campaigns that management said generated strong returns.
  • Selling, general, and administrative expenses declined 4% to $635 million and fell by $118 per unit, or 7%, to $1,619. Management confirmed that it is on track to achieve $200 million in annualized run-rate savings by the end of fiscal 2027, with compensation and benefits declining by $25 million during the quarter.
  • CarMax Auto Finance originated $2.4 billion in loans in fiscal Q1 2027, and its penetration increased by 150 basis points to 43.3%. Net interest margin was 6.7%, up 20 basis points, while the business targets medium-term penetration of 50% with gradual growth in second-tier credit financing.
  • The nationwide rollout of the redesigned extended protection plans began, including lower-cost options and a new wheel, tire, and dent repair product. Plan margins per unit grew slightly in fiscal Q1 2027, and the company aims to add approximately $35 to margin per unit during fiscal 2027.
  • Efficiency initiatives focus on reducing reconditioning costs and optimizing a transportation network that handles more than two million cars annually. The tools include selecting parts and tires at the best cost, reducing unproductive transfers, and leveraging seven standalone reconditioning centers, with some logistics savings already realized.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case5 pts

    • +CarMax has a national footprint that is difficult to replicate, with its stores reaching 85% of the U.S. population and this network integrating vehicle purchasing, reconditioning, transportation, sales, and financing within a single ecosystem.
    • +Fiscal Q1 2027 results showed an improving sales trend, with revenue growth of 6.2% and total unit growth of 3.3%, alongside an 8.4% increase in wholesale units, despite comparison with a period that management said was the strongest in fiscal 2026.
    • +Cost reductions provide potential earnings leverage, after selling, general, and administrative expenses declined to $635 million and cost per unit improved by 7%, with a target of $200 million in annualized run-rate savings by the end of fiscal 2027.
    • +Growth in CarMax Auto Finance and extended protection plans could expand profit per transaction; financing penetration reached 43.3%, and net interest margin rose to 6.7%, while the protection plans target adding approximately $35 to margin per unit in fiscal 2027.
    • +Insider activity during the three months ending with the latest transaction on June 25, 2026, recorded five purchases and no sales, for net purchases of $1 million, which is a supportive signal although it does not guarantee an improvement in operating performance or shareholder returns.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Restoring unit growth depends on pricing concessions and direct pressure on vehicle profit; total retail gross profit declined 10% to $501 million, and gross profit per used vehicle fell by $230 to $2,177 in fiscal Q1 2027. Management maintained guidance for a $200 year-over-year decline in gross profit per unit, making successful reductions in reconditioning costs essential to protecting profitability.
    • −Revenue growth did not translate into earnings growth in fiscal Q1 2027; gross profit declined 4% to $854 million, and earnings per share fell to $1.31 from $1.38. Comparable-store retail unit sales also declined 0.8%, despite a $1,168 increase in the average retail selling price, indicating that revenue improvement partly depended on price and mix rather than strong comparable-unit growth.
    • −CarMax faces increasing credit risks as it expands second-tier financing; the provision for loan losses was $96 million and the reserve was $475 million, or 2.95% of managed receivables. On June 17, 2026, management acknowledged that inflation is pressuring consumers and that delinquency rates for credit cards and auto loans are elevated across the industry, despite losses in its portfolio remaining within expectations.
    • −The fiscal Q1 2027 provision benefited by $25 million from the transfer of legacy loans to held for sale, while CarMax Auto Finance income was approximately $140 million, down 1% year over year. Management also noted that the 6.7% net interest margin includes a seasonal impact and that 6.5% is a more appropriate anchor for the remainder of fiscal 2027.
    • −Execution issues within the CarMax model remain, as management described operations as not sufficiently fast or efficient, pricing and assortment as needing improvement, costs as high, and the digital experience as not seamlessly connected to stores. Some of the transfers of more than two million cars annually are also unproductive, and the seven standalone reconditioning centers have not yet reached the targeted reconditioning savings.

    Valuation

    The average analyst target is $52.11, within a wide range of $43 to $66, while the consensus rating is “Neutral”; the average target is approximately 20% below the 52-week range high of $65.28, while the highest target is slightly above that high. No valid price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data, despite earnings per share of $1.68 in fiscal 2026 and approximately $1.57 for the twelve-month period ending in fiscal Q1 2027, so the stock’s valuation depends heavily on the company’s ability to convert revenue growth and cost reductions into a sustained recovery in earnings and margins.

    HoldAnalyst target: $52.11(-15.0%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    How did CarMax perform in fiscal Q1 2027?

    Revenue reached $8.0 billion, up 6.2%, and the company sold approximately 392 thousand vehicles across retail and wholesale, up 3.3%. Gross profit was $854.4 million and declined 4%, while net income reached $185.6 million and diluted earnings per share reached $1.31 versus $1.38 in the comparable period. Wholesale units grew 8.4%, but comparable-store retail unit sales declined 0.8%. These figures show that the sales improvement preceded a recovery in gross profit and earnings per share.

    What are the pillars of the CarMax strategy announced on June 17, 2026?

    The strategy consists of improving the assortment, simplifying the customer experience, increasing the value of each transaction, and operating the company with a lower-cost structure. Assortment improvement includes using local market data and broader details about vehicle types within pricing algorithms, while experience improvements include simplifying prequalification and vehicle reservations and connecting the digital journey with stores. Increasing transaction value relies on CarMax Auto Finance and the redesign of extended protection plans. Cost reduction focuses on reconditioning, logistics, and selling, general, and administrative expenses, with a target of $200 million in annualized run-rate savings by the end of fiscal 2027.

    Does the growth of CarMax Auto Finance improve earnings or increase risk?

    The business generated $2.4 billion in financing originations and penetration of 43.3% in fiscal Q1 2027, up 150 basis points. Financing income was $140 million, down 1%, while net interest margin rose 20 basis points to 6.7%. On the other hand, the provision for loan losses was $96 million and the reserve was $475 million, or 2.95% of managed receivables, alongside growth in second-tier financing, which requires higher provisions. Therefore, the expansion combines an opportunity to increase transaction value with greater credit and funding risks, despite management’s confirmation that losses were within expectations.

    Why did CarMax’s retail vehicle profit margin decline?

    CarMax reduced prices to support competitiveness and sales, causing gross profit per used vehicle to decline by $230 to $2,177 in fiscal Q1 2027. This resulted in a 10% decline in total retail gross profit to $501 million, although the concession was smaller than the previous guidance of $300 per unit for the quarter. Management maintained fiscal 2027 guidance for a $200 decline in gross profit per unit. The company seeks to fund more competitive pricing in the future through reconditioning and logistics savings instead of continued reliance on margin reductions.

    What is the impact of the extended protection plan redesign on CarMax?

    CarMax began the nationwide rollout of its redesigned extended protection plans in fiscal Q1 2027. The redesign includes lower-cost options for customers and a new product covering wheels, tires, and dents. Plan margin per unit rose slightly during the quarter, and the company targeted completing the nationwide rollout by the end of fiscal Q2 2027. Management estimates the targeted impact at approximately an additional $35 in margin per unit during fiscal 2027.

    What do analyst targets and the 52-week range indicate about KMX’s valuation?

    The average price target is $52.11, with a low target of $43 and a high target of $66, and an overall consensus rating of “Neutral.” The 52-week range is $30.26 to $65.28, meaning the average target is approximately 20% below the range high, while the highest target is slightly above it. The data does not include a valid price-to-earnings ratio, so an earnings multiple cannot be used to confirm whether the valuation is low or high. Revaluation remains tied to an improvement in gross profit per unit and earnings per share after gross profit declined 4% and earnings per share fell from $1.38 to $1.31 in fiscal Q1 2027.

  • −Leverage remained slightly above the target range in fiscal Q1 2027, so management tied returning capital to shareholders to appropriate timing and maintaining efficient access to funding markets. This limits capital allocation flexibility if the growth of CarMax Auto Finance or operational modernization requires additional funding.