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Stocks
Kennametal Inc.
KMT

KMT Kennametal Inc.

Kennametal Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
29.44
▲ ⁦+1.06%⁩ (+0.31)
Market Cap$2.2B
Beta1.36
52w Low52w High
20.3543.81
Last Week
⁦-0.03%⁩
Last Month
⁦-6.81%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-7.25%⁩
Last Year
⁦+35.86%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall79
Strong — clearly above market medianContrarianF 6/9SafeBetter than 79% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
88
6.7x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
88
19.8%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
66
17.1%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
68
1.0x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
27
2.72%▲2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
37
53.4%▲2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
67
6▲3Top tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$29
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$34
⁦+15%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$30–$48⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Annual plan
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Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$36.38
⁦+23.6%⁩
Current Price $29.44·Median $34.00
Low
$30.00
High
$47.50
Current price
$29.44
Average target
$36.38
Street summary

Target Holds Steady as Coverage Declines

Bearish tilt

The consensus price target has not changed over the past 30 days, remaining at 36.38 versus a current price of 29.13, while the range is between 30 and 47.5 and the median stands at 34. This range reflects clear divergence among analysts, while the decline in their number from 4 to 3 points to a shrinking coverage base, not an improvement in the consensus itself.

As of 2026-09-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 2.25
Sell
Analyst coverage
⁦8 (-1)⁩
Buy conviction
0%
Target dispersion
59%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time8 analysts rating
4
2
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months2.40 → 2.25
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-08-10
    Morgan Stanley
    Equal-WeightUnderweight
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-05-27
    Barclays
    Equal-WeightUnderweight· $33.00
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-05-07
    Jefferies
    BuyHold· $47.50⚡Bold call
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    6.66x
    5.69x45.54x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    6.79x
    4.57x36.58x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    4.75x
    3.43x27.47x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    -3.6%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Above average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    19.8%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    268.3%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    41.2%
    8.6%54.6%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    17.1%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.03x
    0.55x4.37x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    2.7%
    0.1%4.8%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    17.8%
    6.6%80.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    3.17
    -5.667.97
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-05 data

Company Overview

Kennametal produces cutting, machining, and wear-resistant material solutions for customers in aerospace and defense, energy, transportation, general engineering, earthworks, mining, and construction. It operates through the Metal Cutting and Infrastructure segments, leveraging materials science, application engineering, process technologies, and a global supply chain; its model is based on selling industrial tools and products, including diamond-coated cutting tools for composites, along with recurring replacement purchases after tools wear out. In fiscal 2026, the company generated revenue of $2.4 billion, gross profit of $970.0 million, and net income of $342.4 million, equivalent to a gross margin of approximately 40.4% and a net income margin of approximately 14.3%.

In quarter 4 of fiscal 2026, revenue was $736.6 million, gross profit was $433.6 million, and net income was $227.0 million, equivalent to a gross margin of approximately 58.9% and a net income margin of approximately 30.8%. Organic sales rose 42%, comprising growth of 22% in Metal Cutting and 74% in Infrastructure, while record adjusted margins reached 46.8% for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization and 41.5% for operating income. However, $252 million of the quarterly profitability improvement came from favorable timing between raw material pricing and costs, including $54 million in Metal Cutting and $198 million in Infrastructure, so the quarter's margins do not by themselves represent a sustainable level.

For fiscal 2026, organic sales grew 19%, adjusted earnings per share increased to $4.57 from $1.34, and the adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin rose to 26.9% from 15.2%. Growth included all end markets at constant currency, but operating cash flow was negative $4 million and free operating cash flow was negative $79 million because of increased working capital associated with higher tungsten prices. Kennametal returned $71 million to shareholders, including $61 million in dividends and $10 million in share repurchases.

What's Driving the Stock

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Kennametal expects revenue of between $3.33 billion and $3.45 billion in fiscal 2027, with volume growth of between 1% and 4% and additional price increases and tariffs of between 40% and 43%, and it also expects adjusted earnings per share of between $4.15 and $5.15.
  • The company targets outperforming growth in its markets by 100 to 200 basis points; within its projected volume growth of 1% to 4% in fiscal 2027, management expects market share gains to contribute approximately one to two percentage points, with aerospace and defense leading growth, followed by energy and general engineering.
  • Kennametal is targeting a market worth approximately $500 million for carbon-fiber composite cutting tools in aerospace and expects it to grow 9% annually through 2028. The company says consumption of diamond-coated cutting tools for these materials is approximately twice that of tools used for aluminum and that the difficulty of reconditioning them supports recurring replacement demand.
  • In quarter 4 of fiscal 2026, the company's energy market grew 101% at constant currency, earthworks and construction grew 76%, aerospace and defense grew 43%, and general engineering grew 28%. In Metal Cutting alone, energy grew 36%, supported by pricing and AI data center projects, while aerospace and defense grew 35% as aircraft production rates increased and the company gained share with suppliers in the Americas and Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
  • Kennametal achieved restructuring savings of $27 million in fiscal 2026 and remains committed to delivering $110 million in savings by the end of fiscal 2027. The fiscal 2027 outlook includes approximately $10 million of carryover savings, while management expects operations to add approximately $0.53 to earnings per share at the midpoint of the outlook.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The results show broad improvement in demand and market share; Kennametal recorded four consecutive quarters of organic sales growth, and Metal Cutting outperformed its reported peers for four consecutive quarters as part of a trend that management said began four years ago.
    • +Aerospace and defense provides a defined growth path, as this end market grew 43% at constant currency in quarter 4 of fiscal 2026, and the company expects it to become its third-largest end market. The carbon-fiber tooling opportunity also combines a market that the company estimates at approximately $500 million, expected growth of 9% annually through 2028, and recurring replacement demand.
    • +The diversity of operational growth supports the fiscal 2027 outlook; management expects all end markets to increase at high double-digit rates at the midpoint of the outlook and at constant currency, including pricing. It also expects volume growth of between 1% and 4%, including one to two percentage points from market share gains.
    • +Liquidity provides capacity to fund working capital; total cash and available liquidity under the credit facility was approximately $926 million at the end of quarter 4 of fiscal 2026, alongside the full availability of a $500 million term loan. The company extended its debt maturities, with the nearest maturity now in July 2029, while public bond maturities extend to 2031 and 2036.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −The current surge in revenue and earnings depends heavily on tungsten pricing rather than volume growth; the fiscal 2027 outlook assumes additional price increases and tariffs of between 40% and 43% versus volume growth of only 1% to 4%. In quarter 4 of fiscal 2026, favorable timing between raw material prices and costs added $252 million to results, while management expects most of this benefit to disappear by the beginning of quarter 3 of fiscal 2027 and the earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin in quarter 4 to reach the mid-teens.
    • −Tungsten-related working capital is placing material pressure on cash and the balance sheet; free operating cash flow shifted from positive $121 million in the previous fiscal year to negative $79 million in fiscal 2026. Management expects a cash outflow of approximately $200 million in quarter 1 of fiscal 2027 and free operating cash flow equal to only approximately 20% of adjusted net income for the year, with expected interest expense rising to approximately $50 million.
    • −The improvement does not include all markets to the same degree; management expects Transportation to decline slightly during fiscal 2027 as global light-vehicle production falls by approximately 1%, while Earthworks is expected to be roughly flat because of weakness in U.S. and Chinese coal markets. The company also assumes continued competitive pressures and typical seasonality in road construction.
    • −The fiscal 2027 outlook carries specific external and financial risks; it assumes stable tungsten prices and no material impact on customer activity from the conflict in the Middle East. The company also expects a negative 23% impact from currency translation in Bolivia following the termination of the preferential exchange-rate program, pressuring earnings per share alongside a negative $0.25 impact from higher interest expense.
    • −The wide range of analyst targets, from $30 to $47.5, reveals meaningful differences in estimates of sustainable earnings after the tungsten timing benefit subsides, while the stock's 52-week range extends from $20.35 to $43.81. The highest analyst target exceeding the top of the 52-week range, while the lowest target remains below the consensus average of $36.38, means the valuation outcome is highly sensitive to margins after raw material prices normalize.

    Valuation

    The average analyst target is $36.38, with a "Neutral" consensus and a wide range of $30 to $47.5; the average is approximately 17% below the top of the 52-week range of $43.81, while the highest target exceeds that peak by approximately 8%. This divergence reflects the difficulty of separating underlying operating earnings from the tungsten timing benefit: adjusted earnings per share were $4.57 in fiscal 2026, but management expects $4.15 to $5.15 in fiscal 2027 as the raw material price-versus-cost benefit declines from $3.11 to $0.39 of earnings per share. Therefore, the sustainable valuation depends on the ability of volume growth, share gains, and savings to offset margin normalization, higher interest expense, and working capital pressure.

    HoldAnalyst target: $36.38(+23.6%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-01; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What drove KMT's record results in quarter 4 of fiscal 2026?

    Organic sales rose 42%, while revenue reached $736.6 million and net income reached $227.0 million in quarter 4 of fiscal 2026. The adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin reached 46.8%, while the adjusted operating margin was 41.5%. The largest driver was a $252 million benefit from the timing of raw material pricing relative to costs, along with higher sales and production and quarterly restructuring savings of approximately $5 million. Management therefore expects the earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin to return to the mid-teens in quarter 4 of fiscal 2027 after the tungsten impact normalizes.

    What is Kennametal's outlook for fiscal 2027?

    The company expects revenue of between $3.33 billion and $3.45 billion in fiscal 2027, with volume growth of between 1% and 4% and additional price increases and tariffs of between 40% and 43%. Adjusted earnings per share are expected to range from $4.15 to $5.15, with a midpoint of $4.65 versus $4.57 in fiscal 2026. The outlook assumes stable tungsten prices and no material impact on customer activity from the conflict in the Middle East. Management also expects interest expense of approximately $50 million and an effective tax rate of approximately 25%.

    Why is tungsten a critical factor for KMT's results?

    Kennametal raised prices in response to tungsten costs reaching historically high levels, and the timing difference between pricing and costs produced a positive impact of $3.11 on earnings per share in fiscal 2026. The company expects this benefit to decline to only $0.39 in fiscal 2027, concentrated in the first half and mostly disappearing by the beginning of quarter 3. Meanwhile, the higher inventory value resulted in negative free operating cash flow of $79 million in fiscal 2026. Management expects a cash outflow of approximately $200 million in quarter 1 of fiscal 2027 before cash flow turns positive in the second half.

    How important is the aerospace and defense market to Kennametal's growth?

    The company's aerospace and defense business grew 43% at constant currency in quarter 4 of fiscal 2026, and management expects it to become Kennametal's third-largest end market. The company is targeting a market worth approximately $500 million for cutting tools used on carbon-fiber aerospace composites, with expected growth of 9% annually through 2028. Kennametal says consumption of diamond-coated tools for these materials is approximately twice that of tools used for aluminum and that the difficulty of reconditioning them supports replacement sales. The company also gained business with aerospace suppliers in the Americas and Europe, the Middle East, and Africa and won business from a customer that faced a supply disruption at one of its competitors.

    Did all Kennametal markets improve at the same pace?

    All end markets delivered constant-currency growth in quarter 4 of fiscal 2026, led by energy at 101%, earthworks and construction at 76%, and aerospace and defense at 43%. However, the fiscal 2027 outlook is more varied than these figures, as management expects aerospace and defense to lead volume growth, followed by energy and general engineering. The company expects Earthworks to be roughly flat because of weakness in coal in the United States and China and Transportation to decline slightly as global light-vehicle production falls by approximately 1%. Kennametal is also monitoring continued competitive and seasonal pressures in road construction.

    What do Kennametal's liquidity and capital returns look like?

    Total cash and available liquidity under the credit facility was approximately $926 million at the end of quarter 4 of fiscal 2026, including an additional $200 million from expanding the facility. A new $500 million term loan was fully available, and the company intends to draw it in the September quarter of fiscal 2027 and repay any use of the credit facility. The nearest debt maturity is now in July 2029, and public bond maturities extend to 2031 and 2036. In fiscal 2026, the company returned $71 million to shareholders, including $61 million in dividends and $10 million in share repurchases, despite negative free operating cash flow of $79 million.

  • −Insider activity during the three months ending with the latest transaction on June 15, 2026 recorded net sales of $2.6 million through four sales and no purchases. This is a secondary trading signal that does not outweigh business and cash flow risks because insider sales may be prearranged unless the data states otherwise.