| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 30 | 26.0x | 17.3x | Bottom tier | |
Growth | 68 | 11.0% | 7.1% | Top tier | |
Quality | 73 | 11.4% | 4.5% | Top tier | |
Safety | 67 | 2.6x | 2.6x | Top tier | |
Capital Return | 90 | 1.08% | 0.06% | Top tier | |
Momentum | 76 | 33.9% | -1.6% | Top tier | |
Sentiment | 62 | 12 | 3 | Around median |
The floor: what the company is worth if growth stopped today
81% of today's price is what a buyer pays for growth that has not happened yet.
10-year US Treasury yield 4.96% as of 2026-10-22. Estimates computed from company data and analyst targets, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Johnson Controls International provides thermal management solutions and building systems for facilities requiring high performance, precision, and energy efficiency, including data centers, research hospitals, and pharmaceutical and semiconductor facilities. The company generates revenue from the sale of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems, including YORK chillers, Silent-Aire air handling units, and coolant distribution units, alongside maintenance and support services throughout the asset lifecycle. Its global field presence, which management says is nearly twice the size of its closest competitor's, gives it an opportunity to link growth in the installed base of systems with recurring service revenue.
In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, revenue reached $6.61 billion, exceeding expectations of $6.46 billion, while organic sales grew 10% and adjusted earnings per share increased 35% to $1.42. Gross margin rose from 34.9% to 36.6%, adjusted earnings before interest and taxes margin expanded 260 basis points to 17%, and segment adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin expanded 220 basis points to 20%. By mix, systems sales increased 11% and services 7%, while the applied heating, ventilation, and air conditioning business achieved upper-teens growth, supported by data centers.
Growth was geographically broad in the third quarter of fiscal 2026; organic revenue increased 11% in the Americas and 15% in Asia Pacific, compared with only 1% in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Adjusted segment margin reached 21% in both the Americas and Asia Pacific, following expansions of 260 and 180 basis points, respectively, while it reached 14% in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa after a limited improvement of 20 basis points. According to EDGAR data for the twelve-month period ending in fiscal 2026, the company recorded revenue of $24.4 billion, gross profit of $8.9 billion, and net income of $3.7 billion.
The average analyst price target is $169.86, with a wide range between $144 and $190 and a consensus rating of Buy. The average is approximately 8% above the 52-week range high of $157.06, while the highest target exceeds that high by approximately 21% and the lowest target is approximately 8% below it, reflecting meaningful differences in estimates of the scale of the data center opportunity and execution risks. Optimism associated with 27% order growth and the raised fiscal 2026 guidance must be weighed against the increasing concentration of growth in data centers, slower services growth, and regional pressure in the Middle East.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
The primary driver is demand for thermal management in data centers and mission-critical facilities. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, orders increased 27%, systems orders grew 40%, and backlog reached $21.0 billion. The applied heating, ventilation, and air conditioning business also achieved upper-teens growth, while the company's organic sales increased 10%.
Management expects data centers to represent a high-teens percentage of fiscal 2026 revenue. Within three to five years, it expects this mix to increase to approximately one-third of the company's revenue. The opportunity includes YORK chillers, Silent-Aire air handling units, coolant distribution units, and control systems, in addition to services for the installed equipment base.
The coolant distribution unit opportunity pipeline reached $1 billion by the July 29, 2026 call. Management explained that most testing and validation had been completed and that shipments would begin in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, with some validation procedures continuing among hyperscale computing customers. The product also received NVIDIA certification, and the company views it as a way to increase its content per megawatt as liquid cooling proliferates and rack densities increase.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management raised its fiscal 2026 organic revenue growth forecast to approximately 8% from approximately 6% previously. It also raised adjusted earnings per share guidance to approximately $5.05, an increase of $0.50 over the original guidance and representing growth of approximately 35%. For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, it expects organic growth between 9% and 10% and adjusted earnings per share of approximately $1.55.
In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, gross margin increased from 34.9% to 36.6%. Adjusted earnings before interest and taxes margin expanded 260 basis points to 17%, while segment adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin reached 20% after improving 220 basis points. Adjusted earnings per share increased 35% to $1.42, with operating leverage expected to be between 45% and 50% for the full fiscal 2026.
One risk is that data centers could account for approximately one-third of revenue within three to five years, increasing exposure to the sector's spending cycle and power constraints. Service orders also grew only 4% in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 compared with 40% for systems, while the security business faced competitive pressure and a decline in the Americas services backlog. Regionally, the Middle East business represents approximately 10% of the Europe, Middle East, and Africa region, and management expects the region's growth to remain between flat and very low single digits in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026.