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Stocks
Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock
JCAP

JCAP Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock

Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock · NASDAQ
Market Closed
21.38
▲ ⁦+0.85%⁩ (+0.18)
Market Cap$1.3B
Beta-0.13
52w Low52w High
15.5024.44
Last Week
⁦+3.43%⁩
Last Month
⁦+0.75%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+25.84%⁩
Last Year
⁦+10.38%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall81
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 5/8Better than 81% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
89
8.5x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
59
22.8%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
98
——Top tier
▸
Safety
28
——Bottom tier
▸
Capital Return
45
4.58%▲2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
61
6.2%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
22
2▼3Bottom tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$21
Analyst target · 2 analysts
$30
⁦+40%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$24–$30⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Annual plan
$17/mo
Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 2 analysts setting price target
$28.00
⁦+31.0%⁩
Current Price $21.38·Median $30.00
Low
$24.00
High
$30.00
Current price
$21.38
Average target
$28.00
Street summary

Consensus target improves as coverage declines

The consensus price target rose to 28 from 26 over the last 30 days, an increase of 7.69%, but it declined marginally from 28.25 on 2026-09-01 to 28 currently. The target range is between 24 and 30, with a median of 30, reflecting notable divergence between two analysts compared with four analysts in the previous relevant snapshot.

As of 2026-09-08
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+12.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.60
Strong Buy
Analyst coverage
⁦5 (+1)⁩
New coverage
Buy conviction
100%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
28%
Analyst ratings over time5 analysts rating
3
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.60 → 4.60
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-14
    Raymond James
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-14
    Citigroup
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-05-15
    Raymond James
    —· $21.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    8.48x
    3.16x25.26x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    7.05x
    2.76x22.06x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    8.34x
    3.07x24.55x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    —
    —
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    22.8%
    -36.3%104.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -86.2%
    -99.4%194.2%
    Weak
  • Gross Margin
    78.5%
    23.5%98.3%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    15.1%
    -36.5%24.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    4.49x
    0.25x7.31x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    4.6%
    0.6%9.0%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    38.9%
    9.8%97.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-13 data

Company Overview

Jefferson Capital purchases, collects, and manages consumer credit portfolios across the United States and Latin America. Its activities include performing and nonperforming accounts and bankruptcy cases involving credit cards, installment loans, and auto financing. The company generates revenue from cash flows from purchased portfolios and collection services, while retaining value-added data, analytics, models, technologies, and collection processes in-house and outsourcing operationally intensive activities such as large domestic call centers. As of June 30, 2026, estimated remaining collections totaled $3.4 billion, including $218 million related to the Bluestem portfolio and $83 million related to the Conn's portfolio within U.S. nonperforming assets.

In Q2 fiscal 2026, revenue rose 16% year over year to $178 million, and collections increased 18% to $301 million, while adjusted earnings per share were $0.77 and adjusted pretax income was $59 million. The company recorded an adjusted pretax return on equity of 51.6%, while cash-adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 12% to $226 million. The data did not disclose a gross margin, but the cash efficiency ratio was 72.2%, or 67.8% excluding Bluestem and Conn's collections and expenses.

The Q2 fiscal 2026 mix showed a meaningful contribution from large performing portfolios: Bluestem generated $41 million in collections, $11 million in portfolio revenue, and $7.1 million in net operating income, while Conn's generated $24 million in collections, $11.1 million in portfolio revenue, $0.6 million in servicing revenue, and $8.1 million in net operating income. On a financial-statement basis, Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue was approximately $176.4 million and net income was $37.6 million, while revenue for the last 12 months was $634.8 million, net income was $161.4 million, and earnings per share were approximately $2.90.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Portfolio purchases totaled $152 million in Q2 fiscal 2026, up 21% year over year, before the company recorded a record $185 million in July 2026, with a significant portion allocated to performing and nonperforming auto finance portfolios and bankruptcy portfolios.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Forward flow commitments reached a record $480.7 million as of June 30, 2026, up approximately 80% year over year, of which $312 million was contracted for the following twelve months; this provides a clear base for portfolio purchasing activity, although management does not provide quantitative guidance for capital deployment.
  • Collections through the legal channel rose 54% year over year to $64 million in Q2 fiscal 2026, driven by accelerating the transition from account placement to filing suit and improving models that identified additional segments that could be collected profitably.
  • Jefferson Capital expanded in auto financing as balances in this market reached $1.69 trillion, while the average monthly payment reached $773 for a new vehicle and $531 for a used vehicle; management believes that collection complexity and pressure on borrowers and smaller lenders are increasing the potential supply of portfolios.
  • The company entered the debt purchasing market in Mexico with a limited initial investment in July 2026, aiming to test its forecasting model and build servicing capabilities before increasing capital, adding a new market to its existing operations in Colombia and Peru.
  • Net debt to cash-adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization improved to 1.71 times as of June 30, 2026, compared with a long-term target range of 2 times to 2.5 times, while approximately $226 million was drawn from the $1.15 billion secured credit facility.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The $3.4 billion balance of estimated remaining collections provides strong visibility into future cash flows, and the company expects to collect $1.1 billion of it during the twelve months following June 30, 2026, with 46% of the balance due through the end of 2027.
    • +Jefferson Capital's model combines 18% growth in collections with a cash efficiency ratio of 72.2% in Q2 fiscal 2026, and the ratio remained 67.8% even after excluding the positive impact of the Bluestem and Conn's portfolios.
    • +The record July 2026 purchases of $185 million and forward flow commitments of $480.7 million support the prospect of continued growth in the estimated remaining collections balance, and management answered no when asked whether it saw obstacles to achieving meaningful growth in this balance during the following year.
    • +The company adds cash returns for shareholders through regular quarterly dividends of $0.24 per share, and it also repurchased 3 million shares for $59 million in conjunction with the follow-on offering in January 2026, equivalent to approximately 5% of total legally issued shares.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Operating expenses rose 46% year over year to $95 million in Q2 fiscal 2026, exceeding revenue growth of 16% and collections growth of 18%; even after excluding stock-based compensation and adjusting for public-offering items, expense growth remained 35%.
    • −Increasing collections through the legal channel requires court costs to be paid upfront before some cash flows are realized, and collections through this channel rose 54% to $64 million; nonperforming auto finance accounts may also require vehicle repossessions and more costly legal proceedings.
    • −Auto finance collection operations are subject to documentation requirements and regulations that vary from one U.S. state to another, and management explained that lawsuits sometimes require proof that the necessary statutory communications were made, increasing operational and regulatory complexity and the risk of collection delays.
    • −The reported cash efficiency ratio was 72.2%, but it falls to 67.8% when Bluestem and Conn's are excluded; therefore, part of the exceptional efficiency level depends on low-collection-cost performing portfolios and does not fully reflect the economics of the core nonperforming portfolio.
    • −Cash-adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization grew 12% in Q2 fiscal 2026, a slower pace than revenue growth of 16% and collections growth of 18%, reflecting pressure from expense growth and legal-channel costs.
    • −Insiders recorded two sales and no purchases during the three months ended August 25, 2026, for net sales of $1.3 million; this is a weak trading signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged, and the data provide no evidence to the contrary.

    Valuation

    The average analyst price target is $28.25, within a range of $24 to $30, and the stock has a consensus "Buy" rating; the average and high targets are above the 52-week range high of $24.44, while the low target is close to it. No published price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data despite earnings per share of $5.64 in fiscal 2025 and approximately $2.90 for the last 12 months, so analyst targets should be weighed against the 46% increase in operating expenses and the costs of legal expansion, within a 52-week range of $15.50 to $24.44.

    BuyAnalyst target: $28.25(+32.1%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-02; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What is driving Jefferson Capital's growth in fiscal 2026?

    Collections in Q2 fiscal 2026 rose 18% to $301 million, and portfolio purchases increased 21% to $152 million. In July 2026, the company recorded record purchases of $185 million, with a significant portion focused on performing and nonperforming auto financing and bankruptcy cases. Forward flow commitments also reached $480.7 million as of June 30, 2026, up approximately 80% year over year.

    How important is the expansion into auto financing for JCAP stock?

    Jefferson Capital handles performing and nonperforming auto accounts and bankruptcy cases, whether secured or unsecured. Management sees an opportunity in a market with balances of $1.69 trillion, with an average monthly payment of $773 for a new vehicle and $531 for a used vehicle. However, this activity is more complex than some other portfolios because it may require vehicle repossession, compliance with regulations that vary by state, and incurring legal costs before collections are received.

    Are portfolio purchases sufficient to maintain the estimated remaining collections balance?

    The company estimated that it needs to purchase approximately $565 million in portfolios during the twelve months following June 30, 2026, to offset runoff and maintain the estimated remaining collections balance at its current level. At that date, it had $312 million in contracted purchases for the following twelve months, and it then purchased $185 million in portfolios in July 2026. The estimated remaining collections balance was $3.4 billion, and the company expects to collect $1.1 billion of it during the same period.

    How do Bluestem and Conn's affect Jefferson Capital's results?

    Bluestem contributed $41 million in collections in Q2 fiscal 2026, along with $11 million in portfolio revenue and $7.1 million in net operating income. Conn's contributed $24 million in collections, $11.1 million in portfolio revenue, $0.6 million in servicing revenue, and $8.1 million in net operating income. The low cost of collecting on paying accounts in these two portfolios helped raise the cash efficiency ratio to 72.2%, compared with 67.8% when they were excluded.

    What are the main profitability risks in Q2 fiscal 2026?

    Operating expenses rose 46% year over year to $95 million, compared with revenue growth of 16% to $178 million. The company attributed the increase to court costs resulting from growth in the legal channel and to noncash stock-based compensation expense following the public offering. Even after adjusting for stock-based compensation and public-offering items in the comparison period, expense growth was 35%, while growth in cash-adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization was only 12%.

    What is Jefferson Capital's liquidity and dividend position?

    Net debt to cash-adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization was 1.71 times as of June 30, 2026, below management's long-term target range of 2 times to 2.5 times. A total of $226 million was drawn from a secured credit facility with total commitments of $1.15 billion, and the company then transferred $300 million to the bond trustee to repay the unsecured notes due in August 2026. The board of directors declared regular quarterly dividends of $0.24 per share, and the company also repurchased 3 million shares for $59 million in January 2026.