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Stocks
ORIX Corporation
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall83
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 8/9Better than 83% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
67
10.1x▲17.6xTop tier
▸
Growth
70
19.7%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
85
——Top tier
▸
Safety
33
——Bottom tier
▸
Capital Return
52
2.36%▲2.15%Around median
▸
Momentum
93
49.4%▲2.3%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
23
1▼3Bottom tier
IX

IX ORIX Corporation

ORIX Corporation · NYSE
Market Open
39.40
▼ ⁦-0.69%⁩ (-0.28)
Market Cap$44.0B
Beta0.72
52w Low52w High
24.1942.39
Last Week
⁦-1.78%⁩
Last Month
⁦+0.65%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-0.59%⁩
Last Year
⁦+45.58%⁩
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Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    10.06x
    3.11x24.86x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    —
    —
  • EV / EBITDA
    12.23x
    3.03x24.25x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    0.5%
    -17.7%19.3%
    Near median
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    19.7%
    -36.8%103.3%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    101.3%
    -99.6%194.1%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    32.2%
    23.3%98.3%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    2.0%
    -36.5%24.6%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    5.20x
    0.25x7.21x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    2.4%
    0.6%9.1%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    23.1%
    9.8%98.0%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-05-12 data

Company Overview

ORIX Corporation operates through a diversified portfolio combining finance, operations, and investments. Its activities include insurance, corporate financial services, private credit, and asset management, alongside real estate, renewable energy, aircraft, ship, and automobile leasing, hotels, airport concessions, and direct investment; profits are generated from financing income, fees, and operations, as well as asset rotation, exit gains, and revaluations.

In fiscal year 2026, revenue according to the cited EDGAR data reached $3,330.8 billion, compared with $2,874.8 billion in fiscal year 2025, an increase of approximately 15.9%. Net income reached ¥447.3 billion, up 27% or ¥95.6 billion, exceeding the revised forecast of ¥440 billion, while return on equity increased by 1.6 percentage points to 10.4%. Profit before tax also rose 44% to ¥691.4 billion, and the company recorded its third consecutive fiscal year of record profits.

The earnings mix included growth across all three categories: finance profits rose 7% or ¥12.9 billion, operations 18% or ¥37 billion, and investments 82% or ¥138.1 billion. Operations benefited from hotels, airport concessions, Rentec, automobiles, and ships, while Greenko, real estate, and private equity investments, including Toshiba, supported the investment category. However, net income in Q4 fiscal year 2026 declined to ¥57.6 billion from ¥118.6 billion in Q3 fiscal year 2026 due to total impairment provisions of ¥97.2 billion, concentrated primarily in ORIX USA and ORIX Capital Partners.

What's Driving the Stock

  • For fiscal year 2027, management is targeting net income of ¥530 billion, an increase of ¥82.7 billion, and return on equity of 11.7%, with profit before tax of ¥760 billion, up 10%. Execution depends on portfolio improvement, asset rotation, and the expansion of asset management and fee income.
  • The sale of ORIX Bank represents a major earnings driver for fiscal year 2027; the transaction is valued at ¥370 billion, and the company expects to record a pre-tax gain of approximately ¥124.2 billion. Including the sale on a preliminary basis, management expects the capital usage ratio to decline from 86% at the end of fiscal year 2026 to approximately 80%, increasing liquidity available for investment and capital returns.
  • ORIX expects finance category profits to grow 63% to ¥308.3 billion in fiscal year 2027, supported by the sale of ORIX Bank and the recovery of ORIX USA following the credit provisions recorded in fiscal year 2026. By contrast, it expects operations profits to grow only 2% to ¥240.7 billion, with pressure from weakness in inbound visitor-related activities offset by growth in aircraft leasing and Hilco Global.
  • The company raised its annual dividend to a record ¥156.1 per share for fiscal year 2026, an increase of 30%, and fully executed its ¥150 billion share repurchase program. For fiscal year 2027, it set a dividend of ¥187.36 per share based on a 39% payout ratio and a ¥250 billion share repurchase program, bringing the expected total return ratio to 85.9%.
  • The transformation plan depends on expanding alternative asset management and corporate solutions; ORIX aims to convert its expertise in real estate, renewable energy, aircraft, and ships into a model that is less balance-sheet-dependent and more fee-generative. Initiatives include building an asset-backed financing platform through Hilco Global, expanding real estate financing and investment in the United States, and continuing to grow direct credit through NXT.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Net income reached a record ¥447.3 billion in fiscal year 2026, up 27%, while profit before tax rose 44% to ¥691.4 billion and return on equity increased to 10.4%. These results show that growth was not limited to a single business, as profits from finance, operations, and investments all increased.
  • +Fiscal year 2027 guidance provides an additional growth path, targeting net income of ¥530 billion, profit before tax of ¥760 billion, and return on equity of 11.7%. Even after excluding the ¥95 billion in Greenko gains from fiscal year 2026, management expects investment category profits to grow in fiscal year 2027.
  • +The sale of ORIX Bank enhances capital allocation flexibility through an expected pre-tax gain of ¥124.2 billion and a preliminary decline in the capital usage ratio to approximately 80%. Management intends to direct capital toward areas where it sees an operational advantage, including domestic private equity, real estate, aircraft, and inflation-resistant real assets.
  • +The capital return policy supports the appeal of shareholder returns; the dividend increased 30% in fiscal year 2026, and the company then established a ¥250 billion share repurchase program for fiscal year 2027. Insider data also show a buying signal during the three months ending with the latest transaction on May 20, 2026, with six purchases, no sales recorded, and net activity of 1,810.6807 according to the source unit.

Valuation

The stock's 52-week range extends from $24.19 to $42.39, a wide spread reflecting a revaluation accompanied by 27% net income growth in fiscal year 2026, but also coinciding with impairments of ¥97.2 billion and the dependence of part of earnings on exits. Without relying on a current price or analyst target, IX's valuation is tied to ORIX's ability to convert its fiscal year 2027 target of ¥530 billion in net income and 11.7% return on equity into recurring earnings after excluding the non-recurring Greenko and ORIX Bank gains.

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove ORIX's profits to a record level in fiscal year 2026?

Net income reached ¥447.3 billion in fiscal year 2026, up 27% or ¥95.6 billion, exceeding the revised forecast of ¥440 billion. Profit before tax rose 44% to ¥691.4 billion, with finance profits growing 7%, operations 18%, and investments 82%. Greenko, real estate, and Toshiba supported the investment category, while hotels, airports, Rentec, automobiles, and ships contributed to operations growth. Return on equity increased to 10.4% from 8.8% in the previous fiscal year.

What is the impact of the ORIX Bank sale in fiscal year 2027?

The sale of ORIX Bank is valued at approximately ¥370 billion, compared with net financial assets of approximately ¥250 billion. ORIX expects to record a pre-tax gain of ¥124.2 billion in fiscal year 2027, provided that closing is completed within the planned period. The sale contributes to raising finance category profit guidance to ¥308.3 billion, an increase of 63%. Management also expects the sale to initially reduce the capital usage ratio from 86% to approximately 80%.

Does fiscal year 2027 net income guidance depend on recurring earnings?

ORIX is targeting net income of ¥530 billion and profit before tax of ¥760 billion in fiscal year 2027. The guidance includes a pre-tax gain of ¥124.2 billion from the sale of ORIX Bank, which is non-recurring. By contrast, management expects ORIX USA to recover and finance and operations to grow, and it also expects investment profits to increase after excluding the ¥95 billion in Greenko gains from the comparison base. Therefore, achieving the guidance depends on a combination of exits, growth in core businesses, and a decline in certain credit provisions.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −Fiscal year 2026 and fiscal year 2027 earnings include significant non-recurring gains from asset rotation; Greenko contributed ¥95 billion in sale and revaluation gains, while fiscal year 2027 guidance includes an expected ¥124.2 billion gain from the sale of ORIX Bank. Management acknowledged that these exits cannot be recorded annually, making the sustainability of earnings growth dependent on converting capital gains into a recurring asset-rotation process and on underlying earnings growth.
  • −Q4 fiscal year 2026 recorded total impairments of ¥97.2 billion, concentrated primarily in ORIX USA, and quarterly net income fell to ¥57.6 billion from ¥118.6 billion in the previous quarter. Pressures included credit provisions of approximately ¥24 billion, mainly related to mortgages and startup growth financing, while management expects normalization of the U.S. business's profitability to take a few years.
  • −The Kansai airport concessions face clear geographic concentration; flights arriving from China represented approximately 30% of flights, after which roughly two-thirds of that portion declined. Management also pointed to weak hotel room rates and therefore expects profits from inbound visitor-related activities to decline in fiscal year 2027 despite efforts to attract flights from South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia.
  • −Management expects operations profits to grow only 2% to ¥240.7 billion in fiscal year 2027 and expects investment category profits to decline on a total basis due to the absence of Greenko gains. This reveals a disparity between targeted net income growth and the underlying operating momentum of certain businesses.
  • −Tensions in the Middle East could indirectly affect aircraft leasing and Asian credit; management warned of potential jet fuel shortages, flight reductions, and deterioration in the creditworthiness of some airlines. Although direct exposure through the leasing and financing companies in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is limited to approximately ¥15 billion, a prolonged crisis could pressure Southeast Asian economies and credit quality.
  • −Asset rotation in the United States remains exposed to slowdowns in the private credit and private equity markets, which could delay exits or reduce their proceeds compared with plans. Management explained that it does not hold an overly optimistic view of the United States and that the results of Hilco Global and NXT initiatives and real estate expansion will not emerge within six months but will require a longer period.
What are the main risks to ORIX's business in the United States?

ORIX recorded total impairments of ¥97.2 billion in Q4 fiscal year 2026, concentrated primarily in ORIX USA and ORIX Capital Partners. Credit provisions for fiscal year 2026 included approximately ¥24 billion, most of which was related to mortgages and startup growth financing. Although credit and private equity exposure related to SaaS companies is approximately 7%, compared with an industry average cited by management of 20%, weakness in private credit could slow asset sales. Management expects the U.S. business to require a few years to return to a normal level of profitability.

How do Chinese flights affect ORIX's Kansai airports?

Flights arriving from China accounted for approximately 30% of Kansai Airport traffic, and roughly two-thirds of that portion declined, according to management's statement on May 12, 2026. The financial impact appears with a lag of approximately three months, so its effect was limited in fiscal year 2026 but could become greater if the decline continues. The company is attempting to offset this by attracting flights from South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, Thailand, and other Southeast Asian markets. Nevertheless, fiscal year 2027 guidance expects lower profits from inbound visitor-related activities and weakness in hotel revenue.

What is ORIX's policy toward dividends and share repurchases?

ORIX paid a record dividend of ¥156.1 per share for fiscal year 2026, an increase of 30%, and fully executed its ¥150 billion share repurchase program. For fiscal year 2027, it maintained the dividend payout ratio at 39% and set an annual dividend of ¥187.36 per share based on targeted net income of ¥530 billion. It also increased the repurchase program to ¥250 billion, an increase of ¥100 billion, benefiting from the liquidity and capital release associated with the sale of ORIX Bank. The expected total return ratio is 85.9%, while policy for subsequent periods remains subject to balancing investment, financial integrity, and shareholder returns.