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Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.
INSP

INSP Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.

Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
73.00
▲ ⁦+7.16%⁩ (+4.88)
Market Cap$2.1B
Beta0.67
52w Low52w High
38.91147.03
Last Week
⁦+18.66%⁩
Last Month
⁦+23.96%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+66.51%⁩
Last Year
⁦-20.32%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall88
Excellent — top fifth of the marketFalling StarF 6/9SafeBetter than 88% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
39
16.1x▲17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
76
4.3%▼7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
86
15.3%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
96
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
74
—2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
38
-35.4%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
62
9▲3Around median
Fair Value
Current price$73
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$60
⁦-18%⁩
See it slightly overvalued
Range ⁦$39–$85⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$70
⁦-4%⁩
Sees it fairly priced
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$60–$70⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$60.80
⁦-16.7%⁩
Current Price $73.00·Median $60.00
Low
$39.00
High
$85.00
Current price
$73.00
Average target
$60.80
Street summary

INSP Price Target Revision Analysis

Inspire Medical Systems stock saw a 9.07% improvement in its average price target over the last thirty days, with the consensus rising from 56 to 61.08. This increase reflects cautious optimism supported by Oppenheimer's upgrade of the stock to "Outperform" in August 2026, despite a wide variance in analyst estimates ranging from 39 to 85, indicating uncertainty regarding the stock's fair value.

As of 2026-08-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+0.9%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.06
Hold
Analyst coverage
17
Buy conviction
24%
Target dispersion
63%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time17 analysts rating
4
11
1
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.40 → 3.06
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-04
    Piper Sandler
    Neutral
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-08-04
    Oppenheimer
    PerformOutperform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-04
    RBC Capital
    Sector Perform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    16.11x
    3.94x44.30x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    52.64x
    4.64x37.16x
    Expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    28.20x
    3.77x30.13x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    5.5%
    -138.2%7.8%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    4.3%
    -56.9%93.8%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    157.4%
    -160.1%130.2%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    86.1%
    12.8%90.7%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    15.3%
    -155.3%16.0%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    14.23
    -38.7417.53
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-03 data

Company Overview

Inspire Medical Systems develops treatment for obstructive sleep apnea through Inspire systems, which use hypoglossal nerve stimulation and are surgically implanted in eligible patients. Revenue generation is tied to implant procedure volume, adoption of the therapy by centers and surgeons, and securing prior authorizations and insurance coverage; Inspire V accounted for the large majority of implants during fiscal Q2 2026, while some centers continued using Inspire IV for Medicare cases. The company stated that it has treated more than 140 thousand patients since its founding.

In fiscal Q2 2026, revenue declined 7.6% to $200.6 million, with management attributing the decline primarily to coding and reimbursement disruption and lower prior authorizations in the previous quarter. Gross profit was $171.5 million, representing a gross margin of approximately 85.5%, benefiting from a higher Inspire V mix, while net income according to EDGAR data was approximately $314 thousand and diluted earnings per share were $0.01. On an adjusted basis, earnings per share were $0.14 and the earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin was 19.4%, down 90 basis points.

The company ended fiscal Q2 2026 with no debt and approximately $415 million in cash and investments, and generated operating cash flow of $23.2 million during the quarter and $36.1 million during the first six months of fiscal 2026. The improvement in first-half cash flow exceeded that of the corresponding period by $40 million, driven by improved working capital. Internationally, management pointed to strong growth in continental Europe, including France after obtaining nationwide coverage, alongside contributions from Germany, Austria, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Belgium, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Singapore, without disclosing the revenue value of each market.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Management raised its fiscal 2026 revenue range to between $835 million and $875 million and also raised its adjusted operating margin forecast to 4%–6% and adjusted earnings per share forecast to $1.05–$1.45, after fiscal Q2 2026 results exceeded its expectations.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Project Horizon targets $30 million in annual investment capacity through organizational structure improvements and production consolidation, to be directed toward increasing patient flow, expanding access to therapy, supporting prior authorizations through SleepSync, and improving the post-implant experience through Inspire Connect.
  • The company estimated the impact of coding and reimbursement disruptions and the WISeR program at approximately $40 million in fiscal Q2 2026, but observed improvement in prior authorization requests and began training the top 25% of centers by volume; management expects the negative impact to decline gradually during fiscal Q3 and Q4 2026.
  • CMS proposed for fiscal 2027 increasing outpatient hospital reimbursement for the Inspire V procedure to $35,414, up 12%, and increasing reimbursement for ambulatory surgery centers to $31,722, up 15%. In contrast, it proposed reducing physician reimbursement for CPT code 64582 by approximately 4% to nearly $699, and management will not consider these rates final before the decision is published in November 2026.
  • In June 2026, the company presented the full results of the Inspire V trial in Singapore, including accelerometer-based sensing technology and safety and efficacy data. A study involving two matched cohorts of 3,525 patients also showed lower odds of several cardiovascular outcomes in the hypoglossal nerve stimulation group compared with the CPAP group, while the PREDICTOR study supported using body mass index and neck circumference to identify some patients who may not require drug-induced sleep endoscopy.
  • Oppenheimer upgraded the stock to Outperform on August 4, 2026, after adjusted earnings per share reached $0.14 in fiscal Q2 2026, compared with analysts’ expectation of a $0.22 loss; a positive surprise of 163%.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The higher Inspire V mix supports unit economics; it helped increase gross profit despite lower revenue, and the gross margin calculated from EDGAR data was approximately 85.5% in fiscal Q2 2026.
    • +Liquidity of $415 million and the absence of debt provide capacity to fund Project Horizon, research and development, and expanded patient access, while operating cash flow remained positive at $36.1 million during the first six months of fiscal 2026.
    • +The increase in prior authorization requests and the recovery of volumes at some centers after training indicate that part of the fiscal Q2 2026 decline was related to administrative disruption in coding and reimbursement, rather than a demonstrated deterioration in the therapy’s clinical outcomes.
    • +Inspire V data, the PREDICTOR study, and research related to hypoxic burden and cardiovascular health support broadening the clinical dialogue around the therapy, while management believes that the SleepSync and Inspire Connect tools can reduce friction between patient interest and treatment completion.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Coding and reimbursement remain the greatest financial risk; the company estimated their impact together with WISeR at between $120 million and $130 million on fiscal 2026 revenue, and two Medicare administrative contractors still require modifier ‎-52, with reimbursement reductions ranging from 0% to 30% of the $723 national average reimbursement.
    • −The improvement in prior authorizations has not yet translated into year-over-year growth; fiscal Q2 2026 revenue declined 7.6%, and management expects an additional decline of 8%–10% in fiscal Q3 2026. The fiscal 2026 revenue range of $835 million–$875 million also remains approximately 4%–8% below fiscal 2025 revenue of $912 million.
    • −Profitability remains under pressure despite the adjusted earnings surprise; the company expects an adjusted operating margin of only 4%–6% in fiscal 2026 and GAAP earnings per share ranging from a $0.42 loss to a $0.17 profit. Project Horizon will also incur pre-tax restructuring expenses of $20 million–$25 million, approximately 90% of which are expected to be recorded in fiscal Q3 2026.
    • −The products currently rely on single-source manufacturing, according to management’s statement on August 3, 2026, making any disruption at a specific supplier a significant operational risk. The company intends to consolidate production and add other manufacturing locations, but $16 million–$20 million of the expected Project Horizon expenses relate to the impairment of production equipment at suppliers that will no longer be used after consolidation.
    • −Competitive and therapeutic risks are increasing; management acknowledged that some centers are testing competing devices and that another company had received approval and was preparing to launch as of August 3, 2026. Sleep physicians can also prescribe GLP-1 drugs for sleep apnea; although management believes that weight loss may increase some patients’ eligibility for Inspire therapy, it did not provide quantitative data demonstrating the net impact of these drugs on demand.
    • −The neutral analyst consensus and the divergence in targets between $39 and $85 reflect a high degree of uncertainty, while the average target of $60.3 remains far from the 52-week range high of $147.03. No published price-to-earnings ratio is available within the provided data, limiting the ability to compare valuation with earnings and making a re-rating dependent on the company’s ability to restore revenue growth after the reimbursement disruptions.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus is neutral, with an average target of $60.3 and a wide range between $39 and $85; even the highest target is approximately 42% below the 52-week range high of $147.03, reflecting a sharp re-rating tied to the revenue decline and coding and reimbursement disruptions. In contrast, Oppenheimer’s upgrade to Outperform on August 4, 2026 supports the positive case following the adjusted earnings-per-share surprise, but the absence of an available price-to-earnings ratio and the wide target range justify continued caution until the trajectory of growth and margins becomes clear.

    HoldAnalyst target: $60.3(-17.4%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-01; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    Why did INSP revenue decline in fiscal Q2 2026?

    Revenue declined 7.6% to $200.6 million, with management attributing this primarily to coding and reimbursement disruption and the decline in prior authorization requests that began in fiscal Q1 2026. The company estimated the quarterly impact of coding and reimbursement challenges and the WISeR program at approximately $40 million. The company began training the top 25% of centers by volume and said on August 3, 2026 that the trend in prior authorization requests had begun to improve.

    What is Inspire Medical Systems’ outlook for fiscal 2026?

    The company expects revenue of between $835 million and $875 million in fiscal 2026, compared with $912 million in fiscal 2025. It expects an adjusted operating margin of between 4% and 6% and adjusted earnings per share of between $1.05 and $1.45. GAAP earnings per share range from a $0.42 loss to a $0.17 profit, with an expected effective tax rate of between 95% and 100%.

    What is Project Horizon and how could it affect INSP’s growth?

    Project Horizon is a plan to redirect resources and consolidate production with the goal of providing $30 million in annual investment capacity. The company will direct this capacity toward increasing patient flow, supporting prior authorizations through SleepSync, improving the post-implant experience through Inspire Connect, and expanding the number of centers and surgeons. The company expects pre-tax restructuring expenses of $20 million–$25 million, with approximately 90% recorded in fiscal Q3 2026 and most actions completed by the end of fiscal 2026.

    How important is Inspire V to the company’s results?

    Inspire V accounted for the large majority of implants in fiscal Q2 2026, and its higher mix helped improve gross profit despite lower sales. Gross profit was $171.5 million on revenue of $200.6 million, representing a gross margin of approximately 85.5%. In June 2026, the company presented the full results of the Inspire V trial in Singapore, including accelerometer-based sensing technology and safety and efficacy data.

    How does the medical reimbursement system affect INSP’s outlook?

    Procedure-specific C codes were introduced into the WISeR system for the six included states, and the company said that hospital and ambulatory surgery center reimbursement did not change in fiscal 2026. CMS proposed for fiscal 2027 increasing outpatient hospital reimbursement to $35,414 and ambulatory surgery center reimbursement to $31,722, but proposed reducing physician reimbursement for CPT code 64582 to approximately $699. The company is awaiting the final rates in November 2026, and its revised application for a new single-lead CPT code will be reviewed in September 2026 and could take effect on January 1, 2028 if approved and the pricing and reimbursement stages are completed.

    Does Inspire Medical Systems have a strong balance sheet to fund its plan?

    The company ended fiscal Q2 2026 with no debt and approximately $415 million in cash and investments. Operating cash flow was $23.2 million in the quarter and $36.1 million during the first six months of fiscal 2026, an improvement of $40 million from the corresponding period. The company also plans capital expenditures of between $35 million and $40 million during fiscal 2026, alongside funding Project Horizon initiatives.