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ICL Group Ltd
ICL

ICL ICL Group Ltd

ICL Group Ltd · NYSE
Market Closed
5.66
▼ ⁦-1.05%⁩ (-0.06)
Market Cap$7.4B
Beta0.98
52w Low52w High
4.766.97
Last Week
⁦-2.92%⁩
Last Month
⁦+5.99%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-14.76%⁩
Last Year
⁦-12.25%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall48
Balanced — near the middle of the marketTurnaroundF 5/9Better than 48% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
75
23.0x▼17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
24
10.9%▲7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
43
5.5%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
57
2.1x▲2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
35
3.94%▲2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
56
-17.4%▼2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
50
2▼3Around median
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$5.66
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$6.00
⁦+6%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$5.75–$6.50⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$2.06
⁦-64%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦8.7⁩% discount · ⁦3⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$2.06–$6.00⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$6.08
⁦+7.4%⁩
Current Price $5.66·Median $6.00
Low
$5.75
High
$6.50
Current price
$5.66
Average target
$6.08
Street summary

Negative revision of ICL price target

Bearish tilt

The price target for ICL Group stock has seen a downward revision over the past thirty days, with the average forecast falling by 5.13% to reach $6.1 compared to $6.43 previously. This adjustment reflects a decline in expectations, although the current price target remains above the market trading price of $5.15, indicating a theoretically positive valuation gap but with diminishing momentum from analysts.

As of 2026-07-27
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.00
Hold
Analyst coverage
4
Buy conviction
0%
Target dispersion
13%
Analyst ratings over time4 analysts rating
4
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.00 → 3.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-05-28
    Morgan Stanley
    —· $5.80
  • = Reiterate2026-05-20
    BMO Capital
    Market Perform· $6.50
  • = Reiterate2026-05-18
    Barclays
    —· $7.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    23.05x
    4.94x39.51x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    13.04x
    3.70x29.59x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    7.18x
    2.62x20.92x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    4.5%
    -21.3%8.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    10.9%
    -21.2%90.4%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -15.9%
    -249.5%198.4%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    30.6%
    7.6%58.9%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    5.5%
    -52.6%20.2%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.10x
    0.22x3.72x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    3.9%
    0.2%5.5%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    90.9%
    4.7%147.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-05 data

Company Overview

ICL Group operates through an interconnected portfolio of minerals, fertilizers, and specialty solutions. Its businesses include potash and phosphate fertilizers, bromine products, flame retardants, and clear brine fluids, alongside specialty crop nutrition, food phosphates, and functional ingredients. The company leverages its resources in the Dead Sea, Spain, the Negev, and China, and generates revenue from the agriculture, food, electronics, energy, construction, and oil and gas markets.

In Q2 FY2026, sales rose 17% year over year to $2.1 billion, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 28% to $448 million, representing a margin of approximately 21.3%. Adjusted net income rose 35% to $149 million, or $0.12 per share, while operating cash flow reached $290 million and free cash flow reached $94 million, up 8% and 34% year over year, respectively.

All four segments contributed to growth in Q2 FY2026: Industrial Products recorded sales of approximately $414 million and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $130 million; Potash recorded approximately $468 million and $154 million; Phosphate Solutions recorded approximately $722 million and $136 million; and Growing Solutions recorded approximately $605 million and $50 million, respectively. The improvement came from higher potash, bromine, and phosphate prices and volumes, but coincided with $100 million in additional raw material costs and more than $40 million in foreign exchange impact.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Operating performance in Q2 FY2026 was stronger than in the prior year, as higher prices added $206 million to sales, alongside increased volumes and growth across all four segments.
  • Industrial Products delivered its best quarterly performance since the end of 2022; sales rose 30% to $414 million and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization jumped 88% to $130 million, driven by higher bromine prices, increased volumes, and improved electronics-sector demand for bromine-based flame retardants.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Potash sales in Q2 FY2026 rose 22% to $468 million, and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 34% to $154 million. The average potash price was $376 per ton on a CIF basis, up 13% year over year, while production increased 11% to 1.058 million metric tons.
  • ICL aims to double Specialty Food Solutions sales to $1.5 billion by 2029, benefiting from a functional food ingredients market valued at approximately $35 billion and an expected growth rate of about 6% over five years. In Q2 FY2026, specialty food phosphate sales grew due to pricing, volumes, and new customers in dairy, meat, and seafood applications, alongside the development of a high-protein beverage prototype targeting the GLP-1 category.
  • The Elevate program targets an improvement in annual earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of more than $150 million by the end of 2027, followed by more than $350 million annually by the end of 2028. The company expects 50% to 60% of the improvement to come from productivity and operational efficiency, 30% to 40% from reduced external spending, and 10% to 20% from optimizing selling, general, and administrative expenses.
  • On August 5, 2026, management reaffirmed its FY2026 guidance for consolidated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of between $1.5 billion and $1.7 billion, and potash sales of between 4.5 million and 4.7 million metric tons. The company will also begin applying a four-segment reporting structure in Q1 FY2027 comprising Nutrition Solutions, Industrial Products, Growing Solutions, and Essential Minerals.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +Q2 FY2026 results combine 17% sales growth, 28% growth in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, and 34% growth in free cash flow, indicating that improved pricing and volumes translated into earnings and liquidity despite higher raw material and currency costs.
    • +ICL's portfolio provides diversification across potash, phosphates, bromine, crop nutrition, and food solutions, and all four segments achieved sales growth during Q2 FY2026. The strength of Industrial Products was particularly notable, with 88% growth in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, alongside 34% growth in Potash earnings.
    • +Specialty Crop Nutrition sales increased from $1 billion and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of approximately $60 million in 2020 to $2 billion and more than $200 million in 2025. The Specialty Food Solutions target of $1.5 billion in revenue by 2029 adds a second growth path built on an established food phosphates base.
    • +The Elevate program represents a tangible opportunity to expand margins and improve cash generation if it achieves its targets of more than $150 million annually by the end of 2027 and $350 million by the end of 2028. The financial position is supported by $2.2 billion in available liquidity and a net debt-to-adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization ratio of 1.5 times in Q2 FY2026.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −The annual financial statements reveal a substantial decline in earnings power compared with the FY2022 peak; revenue fell from $10.0 billion in FY2022 to $7.2 billion in FY2025, net income dropped from $2.2 billion to $280 million, and earnings per share declined from $1.67 to $0.18.
    • −Sulfur poses a direct risk to phosphate supplies and margins; its spot price rose 72% quarter over quarter and more than 210% year over year in Q2 FY2026, and that quarter's results did not reflect the full impact because lower-cost inventory was consumed. ICL secured the quantities needed for Q3 and the beginning of Q4 FY2026, but warned of higher consumption costs and margin pressure when higher-priced inventory is used.
    • −Brazil represents one-third of the Growing Solutions business, while demand for specialty fertilizers remained weak because of affordability and financing challenges and a real interest rate exceeding 9%. Management expects the Q3 FY2026 season in Brazil to be weaker than usual, after the segment's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization declined in Q2 despite 12% sales growth.
    • −Earnings are exposed to currency and supply-chain risks; the company's shekel-exposed expenses exceed the equivalent of $1 billion, and Q2 FY2026 absorbed a negative foreign exchange impact of more than $40 million. Ocean freight rates also rose by an average of 45% during the quarter because of disruptions in the Middle East and continued to rise during July 2026.
    • −A significant portion of the surge in Industrial Products relied on elevated bromine prices, but the price peaked above $6,000 per ton in April 2026 and then declined during May and June before reaching approximately $4,500 at the time of the call. Management linked the trajectory of bromine prices to geopolitical developments and acknowledged that Q2 FY2026 performance represents an elevated level that cannot be assumed to continue.
    • −

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus on ICL is Neutral, with an average price target of $6.08 and a range of $5.75 to $6.50; the average target falls within the 52-week range of $4.76 to $6.97 and is approximately 13% below its peak. No price-to-earnings multiple is available in the provided data, while the valuation balances the improvement in Q2 FY2026 against the decline in net income from $2.2 billion in FY2022 to $280 million in FY2025 and the risks of margin pressure during the second half of FY2026.

    HoldAnalyst target: $6.08(+7.4%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What drove the growth in ICL's Q2 FY2026 results?

    Sales rose 17% to $2.1 billion, with improved pricing alone adding $206 million to revenue and volumes making a positive contribution. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 28% to $448 million, while adjusted net income rose 35% to $149 million. Industrial Products was the most prominent contributor, with sales growing 30% and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization jumping 88% due to bromine prices, volumes, and electronics demand.

    How important is the Elevate program to ICL's earnings?

    ICL launched the Elevate program to reduce its cost base, expand margins, and improve cash generation across more than 40 production sites and an extensive logistics chain. The program targets an annual improvement in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization exceeding $150 million by the end of 2027 and more than $350 million by the end of 2028. The target is for 50% to 60% of the savings to come from productivity and operational efficiency, 30% to 40% from external spending, and the remainder from optimizing selling, general, and administrative expenses.

    Why does sulfur pose a risk to ICL in FY2026?

    Sulfur is a key raw material for ICL's phosphate products, and its spot price rose 72% quarter over quarter and more than 210% year over year in Q2 FY2026. Lower-cost sulfur inventory helped mitigate the impact in that quarter, but management expects greater margin pressure when higher-priced inventory is consumed. The company secured its needs for Q3 and the beginning of Q4 FY2026, while pricing and supply availability remain challenging.

    What long-term growth drivers has ICL identified?

    ICL identified Specialty Crop Nutrition and Specialty Food Solutions as two key drivers of profitable growth. Specialty Crop Nutrition sales increased from $1 billion in 2020 to $2 billion in 2025, while its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization rose from approximately $60 million to more than $200 million. In Specialty Food Solutions, the company targets sales of $1.5 billion by 2029 and is working on applications including low-sodium products, clean-label products, and a high-protein beverage prototype for the GLP-1 category.

    What is ICL's guidance for FY2026?

    On August 5, 2026, management reaffirmed its expectation for consolidated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of between $1.5 billion and $1.7 billion in FY2026. It also expects potash sales of between 4.5 million and 4.7 million metric tons and an adjusted tax rate of approximately 30%. Despite the strong first half, management expects the second half to be weaker because of higher sulfur prices, shekel exchange-rate risk, and weakness in Growing Solutions in Brazil.

    How will the new organizational structure change the presentation of ICL's businesses?

    Beginning in Q1 FY2027, ICL will present its businesses within four segments: Nutrition Solutions, Industrial Products, Growing Solutions, and Essential Minerals. Nutrition Solutions will combine the food, beverage, health, and nutrition businesses, while Essential Minerals will include potash and phosphate fertilizers from the core production sites. The structure aims to increase the visibility of the performance of growth drivers and industrial markets, including advanced electronics, semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and data centers.

    The Elevate program requires broad changes across more than 40 production sites and a complex logistics chain to achieve an annual improvement exceeding $350 million by the end of 2028. Management also expects the second half of FY2026 to be weaker than the first half, with the guidance range for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization remaining wide at $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion because of sulfur, currencies, and weakness in Brazil.