EL7.AI
Strategy BuilderCOT DataAdvanced NewsResearchNewEarnings CalendarEconomic Calendar
We use cookiesPrivacy Policy
EL7.AIEL7.AI

AI Financial Intelligence
Professional analysis of central bank decisions

© 2026 EL7.AI. All rights reserved.

Markets

  • News
  • Forex
  • Stocks
  • Crypto
  • Gold
  • Commodities
  • Indices
  • ETFs

Analysis

  • Fed
  • ECB
  • BLS
  • COT
  • Economic Calendar

Learn

  • Service Guide
  • Oil

Company

  • About
  • Contact
  • Data Methodology
  • AI Disclosure
  • Pricing
  • Enterprise
  • Terms
  • Privacy
  • Security
  • WhatsApp
Status data is currently unavailable

The information provided on EL7.AI is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

Home
Stocks
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall42
Weak — below market medianFalling StarF 8/9Better than 42% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
42
22.2x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
52
6.9%7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
79
——Top tier
▸
Safety
23
——Bottom tier
▸
Capital Return
47
1.27%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
46
-13.4%▼2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
44
10▲3Around median
ICE

ICE Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
157.40
▲ ⁦+1.02%⁩ (+1.59)
Market Cap$88.4B
Beta0.93
52w Low52w High
121.79176.59
Last Week
⁦-0.29%⁩
Last Month
⁦+4.07%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+12.16%⁩
Last Year
⁦-9.26%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$157
Analyst target · 6 analysts
$180
⁦+14%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$163–$218⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$101
⁦-36%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦8.5⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$101–$180⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

Compare in the screener
Premium content

Get Your Premium Account Now

  • Stock Deep Analysis
  • The Advanced News Platform
Recommended
Annual plan
$17/mo
Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 6 analysts setting price target
$184.50
⁦+17.2%⁩
Current Price $157.40·Median $180.00
Low
$163.00
High
$218.00
Current price
$157.40
Average target
$184.50
Street summary

Slight Increase in Consensus with Fewer Analysts

ICE’s consensus price target rose over the last 30 days from 183.25 to 184.5, an increase of 1.25 or 0.68%, while remaining unchanged over the last 7 days and one day. The current price is 157.76, making the consensus higher than it, but the target range is wide, between 163 and 218, and the median at 180 is lower than the consensus, indicating notable divergence among analysts.

As of 2026-09-08
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+0.7%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.27
Buy
Analyst coverage
⁦15 (-1)⁩
Buy conviction
93%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
35%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time15 analysts rating
5
9
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.00 → 4.27
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-01
    Raymond James
    Strong Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-07-31
    TD Cowen
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-07-31
    Barclays
    Overweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    22.23x
    3.16x25.26x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    18.28x
    2.76x22.06x
    Expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    15.38x
    3.07x24.55x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    5.7%
    -19.9%19.1%
    Above average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    6.9%
    -36.3%104.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    35.6%
    -99.4%194.2%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    73.4%
    23.5%98.3%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    8.6%
    -36.5%24.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.78x
    0.25x7.31x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    1.3%
    0.6%9.0%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    28.3%
    9.8%97.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-30 data

Company Overview

Intercontinental Exchange operates financial-market infrastructure that combines exchanges, clearing, data, connectivity networks, and mortgage technology. The company generates revenue from futures and options trading, clearing and listing fees, recurring subscriptions to pricing data, indices, and connectivity, as well as the Encompass and MSP platforms for mortgage origination and servicing. In Q2 FY2026, segment net revenues were distributed across $1.5 billion for Exchanges, $645 million for Fixed Income and Data Services, and $557 million for Mortgage Technology.

In Q2 FY2026, ICE reported revenue of $3.6 billion, net income of $958 million, and earnings per share of $1.69, according to EDGAR data, equivalent to a calculated net income margin of approximately 26.6%. On the adjusted basis presented by management, net revenues after transaction-based expenses reached $2.7 billion, up 5%, while adjusted operating income reached $1.6 billion, equivalent to an adjusted operating margin of approximately 59%. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.90, and recurring revenues rose 8% to a record $1.4 billion.

The financial statements show a broader earnings base compared with FY2025, when the company reported revenue of $12.6 billion, net income of $3.3 billion, and earnings per share of $5.77. In Q2 FY2026, the Exchanges segment made the largest contribution to net revenues, while Fixed Income and Data Services and Mortgage Technology provided a mix of recurring subscription and transaction revenues. The company returned $945 million to shareholders during the quarter, including $651 million in share repurchases, and ended the period with leverage of 2.8 times.

What's Driving the Stock

  • On July 30, 2026, ICE agreed to acquire MarketAxess for $167 per share at an enterprise value of $5.7 billion; the transaction aims to connect the ICE Bonds network serving wealth and retail clients with more than 2,100 institutions on the MarketAxess network, with completion expected in the first half of 2027 following regulatory approvals.
  • Management expects the MarketAxess transaction to be accretive to adjusted earnings per share from the first year after closing and to generate annual savings of $100 million, with one-third achieved in the first year, two-thirds by the second year, and the full amount by the third year.
  • Interest-rate activity grew 24% year over year in Q2 FY2026, and total futures and options open interest rose 20%. In June 2026, open interest in the interest-rate franchise reached a record 53 million contracts, up more than 50%, while the notional value of positions in Euribor, SONIA, and ESTR reached $62.3 trillion.
  • Recurring revenues from Fixed Income and Data Services rose 10% to $531 million, and management raised its FY2026 growth guidance to a range of 7%–8% from a mid-single-digit rate. Assets linked to ICE indices within ETFs also reached a record $922 billion, up 29% year over year.
  • ICE expanded its use of artificial intelligence by launching ICE Compass for pre-trade analytics, with T. Rowe Price as an anchor client, and by deploying ICE Aurora within Encompass and MSP. Demand from traditional flows and artificial-intelligence flows supported 11% growth in data and network technology revenues, while API and web-service calls in the mortgage servicing business rose 39% to 10.7 billion calls.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +ICE combines transaction revenues with more predictable subscription revenues; recurring revenues reached $1.4 billion in Q2 FY2026, up 8%, despite more moderate episodic volatility compared with the previous quarter.
  • +The company has broad momentum across its three segments: recurring Exchanges revenues grew 10% to $416 million, recurring Fixed Income and Data Services revenues rose 10% to $531 million, and Mortgage Technology transaction revenues increased 11%.
  • +MarketAxess could expand ICE's market from wealth and retail clients to more than 2,100 institutions, with an opportunity to cross-sell pricing, reference data, indices, and analytics through a unified platform; management supports the transaction's rationale with expectations of immediate accretion to adjusted earnings per share after closing and targeted annual savings of $100 million.
  • +Strong cash flows support a substantial capital-return policy; ICE returned approximately $1.8 billion to shareholders in the first half of FY2026, and the board increased the share-repurchase authorization to $4 billion, with plans to raise the quarterly baseline for repurchases from $350 million to $400 million.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $183.25, within a wide range of $163 to $208, with a consensus rating of “Buy.” The average target is only approximately 2.3% above the 52-week range high of $179.20, while the highest target exceeds that high by approximately 16%, reflecting differing assessments of the impact of the MarketAxess transaction and recurring growth. The data do not provide a valid comparable price-to-earnings multiple, so the risk assessment is based on the target range relative to the 52-week range of $121.79–$179.20 and on the expected increase in leverage to 3.4 times before savings and debt reduction.

BuyAnalyst target: $183.25(+16.4%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

How did ICE perform in Q2 FY2026?

ICE reported revenue of $3.6 billion, net income of $958 million, and earnings per share of $1.69, according to EDGAR. On management's adjusted measures, net revenues reached $2.7 billion, up 5%, and adjusted operating income was $1.6 billion. Adjusted earnings per share reached $1.90, while recurring revenues rose 8% to $1.4 billion. Management described these results as the best second-quarter performance in the company's history.

What is the expected impact of ICE's acquisition of MarketAxess?

On July 30, 2026, ICE announced a definitive agreement to acquire MarketAxess for $167 per share at an enterprise value of $5.7 billion. The transaction aims to connect ICE Bonds, which serves wealth and retail desks, with a network comprising more than 2,100 financial institutions. Management expects the transaction to be accretive to adjusted earnings per share in the first year after closing and to generate annual savings of $100 million by the third year. The expected closing in the first half of 2027 remains subject to regulatory approvals and customary conditions.

Which segments are driving ICE's growth in FY2026?

The Exchanges segment generated net revenues of $1.5 billion in Q2 FY2026, driven by 24% growth in interest-rate activity and 15% growth in NYSE transaction revenues. Fixed Income and Data Services recorded $645 million, with recurring revenues rising 10% to $531 million. Mortgage Technology generated $557 million, with transaction revenues growing 11% and recurring revenues reaching $406 million. This mix reflects the contribution of trading, data, subscriptions, and mortgage technology to the results.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −The MarketAxess transaction carries clear execution risks because management acknowledged that improving growth will require time and investment, while analysts' questions pointed to several years of declining MarketAxess market share and pressure on trading fees. The return thesis depends on accelerating a growth trajectory that was in the mid-single-digit range and successfully integrating institutional liquidity with retail and wealth channels.
  • −The $5.7 billion MarketAxess transaction will be funded entirely in cash through new bonds, a term loan, and commercial paper, which is expected to temporarily increase total leverage from 2.8 times at the end of Q2 FY2026 to approximately 3.4 times. Management aims to return to 3 times or less within 18 to 24 months, but this makes deleveraging and achieving the savings important factors in the transaction's actual return.
  • −The cost and investment base is rising before some benefits are realized; management guided to adjusted operating expenses of between $1.063 billion and $1.073 billion in Q3 FY2026 and raised the FY2026 range to $4.190–$4.230 billion. It also increased its capital-expenditure forecast to approximately $850 million after bringing forward part of its 2027 investments into 2026.
  • −Despite raising FY2026 recurring revenue growth guidance for Fixed Income and Data Services to 7%–8%, management expects second-half growth to trend toward the low end of the range because of difficult comparisons with Hall 5 sales in Q3 and Q4 FY2025. Energy volumes were also weaker in Q2 FY2026, highlighting the sensitivity of part of transaction revenues to activity and volatility cycles.
  • −The MarketAxess transaction remains subject to regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions before its expected completion in the first half of 2027. On July 30, 2026, Monteverde & Associates began an investigation into the fairness of the $167 offer price per MarketAxess share, adding legal and procedural exposure to the acquisition process.
  • −Insider activity during the three months ended August 20, 2026, recorded net selling of $5.5 million across 15 sales with no purchases. These data represent a weaker trading signal than the operational and financing risks because insider sales may be prearranged unless evidence proves otherwise.
How is ICE using artificial intelligence in its products?

In Q2 FY2026, the company launched ICE Compass, a pre-trade bond analytics platform, with T. Rowe Price as an anchor client. ICE is also integrating ICE Aurora artificial-intelligence agents within Encompass and MSP for tasks including fee calculations, disclosure issuance, borrower servicing, and escrow settlements. Management says these tools operate within defined permissions, audit logs, and human approvals, and the company has begun generating revenue from some of their uses. In the mortgage servicing business, the number of API and web-service calls rose 39% to 10.7 billion in the same quarter.

What are the main financial risks associated with ICE stock?

The greatest risk relates to executing the MarketAxess transaction and accelerating the growth of a business that has faced pressure on market share and trading fees, according to issues raised by analysts during the July 30, 2026 call. The transaction's cash funding will temporarily increase total leverage to approximately 3.4 times, with a target of returning to 3 times or less within 18 to 24 months. Management also raised its FY2026 adjusted operating expense forecast to $4.190–$4.230 billion and capital expenditures to approximately $850 million. In addition, the transaction is subject to regulatory approvals and an announced investigation into the fairness of the offer price for MarketAxess shareholders.

What supports the growth of ICE's interest-rate and energy businesses?

In Q2 FY2026, interest-rate activity grew 24%, and total futures and options open interest rose 20% year over year. Open interest in the interest-rate franchise reached 53 million contracts in June 2026, while the notional value of positions in Euribor, SONIA, and ESTR reached $62.3 trillion. In energy, quarterly volumes were weaker, but open interest rose 8% since the beginning of FY2026, and Brent options volume increased 46%. ICE's share of the crude-options market also exceeded 68%, while options accounted for 40% of energy open interest compared with approximately one-quarter in 2021.