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Home
Stocks
Howmet Aerospace Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall74
Strong — clearly above market medianHigh FlyerF 8/9SafeBetter than 74% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
14
49.0x▼17.6xBottom tier
▸
Growth
86
18.1%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
80
22.1%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
76
1.5x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
42
0.21%▼2.15%Around median
▸
Momentum
56
56.1%▲2.3%Around median
▸
Sentiment
73
14▲3Top tier
HWM

HWM Howmet Aerospace Inc.

Howmet Aerospace Inc. · NYSE
Market Open
225.36
▼ ⁦-0.88%⁩ (-2.01)
Market Cap$91.0B
Beta1.19
52w Low52w High
182.78310.00
Last Week
⁦-0.78%⁩
Last Month
⁦-20.50%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-18.84%⁩
Last Year
⁦+21.56%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$227
Analyst target · 11 analysts
$333
⁦+46%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$290–$370⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$72
⁦-68%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦9.6⁩% discount · ⁦7⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$72–$333⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 11 analysts setting price target
$331.10
⁦+46.9%⁩
Current Price $225.36·Median $332.50
Low
$290.00
High
$370.00
Current price
$225.36
Average target
$331.10
Street summary

Target Price Consensus Rises as Analyst Count Declines

Bullish tilt

The target price consensus rose over the past 30 days from 316.18 to 331.1, an increase of 4.72%, while remaining unchanged over the past 7 days. The consensus indicates a level approximately 45.6% above the current price of 227.37, with a median of 332.5 and a wide range between 290 and 370, reflecting clear optimism alongside notable variation in estimates.

As of 2026-09-21
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+4.7%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.05
Buy
Analyst coverage
⁦22 (-4)⁩
Buy conviction
86%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
35%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time22 analysts rating
4
15
3
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.00 → 4.05
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-14
    Guggenheim
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-09-02
    Deutsche Bank
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-09-01
    Citigroup
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    49.00x
    5.62x44.96x
    Expensive
  • Forward P/E
    36.97x
    4.56x36.47x
    Very expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    33.87x
    3.41x27.30x
    Very expensive
  • FCF Yield
    2.0%
    -30.4%11.6%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    18.1%
    -10.9%44.4%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    36.1%
    -133.2%132.4%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    —
    —
  • ROIC
    22.1%
    -25.7%19.6%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.47x
    0.54x4.33x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    0.2%
    0.1%4.7%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    10.4%
    6.1%80.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    9.26
    -5.467.76
    Exceptional
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-06 data

Company Overview

Howmet Aerospace produces advanced engineered components for the commercial aerospace, defense aerospace, industrial gas turbine, and commercial transportation markets, and generates revenue through four segments: Engine Products, Fastening Systems, Engineered Structures, and Forged Wheels. Sources of demand include engines and their components, spare parts, aircraft fasteners, engineered structures, and aluminum wheels, while the company also benefits from selling gas turbine components used to generate electricity for data centers. In the first half of fiscal 2026, spare parts accounted for approximately 22% of total revenue, after their revenue grew 37% to nearly $460 million in fiscal Q2 2026.

Fiscal Q2 2026 revenue was approximately $2.55 billion according to the earnings call, up 24% year over year, while organic growth was 21%. Net income according to EDGAR data reached $534 million, and earnings per share were $1.33, up 46%, while adjusted EBITDA rose 39%, and its margin expanded 340 basis points to 32.1%. The adjusted operating margin was 28.8%, with free cash flow of $479 million during the quarter and approximately $840 million during the first half.

Engine Products was the largest segment, with revenue of $1.37 billion, or approximately 54% of quarterly revenue, after growing 32%, and its adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 37.7%. Fastening Systems recorded revenue of $589 million, up 37%, with a margin of 30.1%, while Engineered Structures revenue declined 13% to $269 million due to the sale of the Savannah facility and was approximately flat excluding the impact of the sale. Forged Wheels revenue increased 14% due to the pass-through of higher aluminum costs despite an 8% year-over-year decline in volumes.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Howmet raised its fiscal 2026 outlook to revenue of $10.05 billion, plus or minus $50 million, adjusted EBITDA of $3.23 billion, plus or minus $20 million, and earnings per share of $5.27, plus or minus $0.04. It also expects free cash flow of $1.9 billion, plus or minus $50 million, after fiscal Q2 2026 results exceeded the high end of its previous guidance.
  • Commercial aerospace revenue rose 28% and 26% organically in fiscal Q2 2026, driven by new aircraft and spare parts, while defense aerospace revenue grew 11% and 7% organically. Within Engine Products specifically, commercial aerospace sales increased 37% and defense sales increased 17%, with continued inventory buildup of LEAP-1B components and increased production of GTF Advantage components in preparation for transitions and retrofits during 2027.
  • Gas turbine revenue jumped 38% due to demand for natural gas power generation, particularly for data centers. Howmet holds a global share exceeding 50% in gas turbine blades and completed negotiations with seven major customers, while management said some customers had begun requesting upward revisions to their forecasts.
  • Engine Products adjusted EBITDA increased 51% to $517 million, faster than revenue growth of 32%, and the margin expanded 470 basis points to 37.7%. At the company level, incremental conversion of revenue into adjusted EBITDA reached 46%, demonstrating that sales growth translated strongly into profitability.
  • The company repurchased $600 million of shares in the first half of fiscal 2026, then added $200 million in July 2026, bringing the year-to-date total to $800 million at an average of $248 per share. It raised the quarterly dividend for fiscal Q3 2026 by 17% to $0.14 per share, with approximately $700 million of repurchase authorization remaining.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Fiscal Q2 2026 performance combines 24% revenue growth, 39% adjusted EBITDA growth, and 46% earnings-per-share growth, indicating strong operating leverage rather than merely an expansion in sales volume.
  • +Demand momentum is diversified across commercial aerospace, defense aerospace, spare parts, and gas turbines; commercial aerospace grew 28%, spare parts 37%, and gas turbines 38%, reducing the growth trajectory's dependence on a single end market during fiscal 2026.
  • +Howmet's global share exceeding 50% in gas turbine blades, together with investments in Japan, Europe, and Virginia and in hollow-blade technologies and multi-constituent coatings, supports its ability to benefit from the expansion of power generation capacity through 2028 and 2029 and beyond.
  • +Expected free cash flow of $1.9 billion in fiscal 2026 provides flexibility to fund capital expenditures exceeding $500 million, repurchase shares, increase dividends, and reduce net debt to approximately one times adjusted EBITDA by the end of fiscal 2026.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $317.09, versus a high target of $370 and a low target of $270. The average target is slightly above the 52-week range high of $310, but the wide target range reflects meaningful differences in estimates of the sustainability of aerospace and gas turbine growth and margins. The available data do not include a usable price-to-earnings ratio, so the stock's valuation here is based on the target range, the 52-week range, and financial performance rather than an unavailable earnings multiple.

BuyAnalyst target: $317.09(+40.7%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove HWM's results in fiscal Q2 2026?

Revenue reached $2.55 billion, up 24% year over year, and organic growth was 21%. Earnings per share rose 46% to $1.33, while the adjusted EBITDA margin reached 32.1% after improving 340 basis points. Momentum came from 28% growth in commercial aerospace, 38% growth in gas turbines, and 37% growth in spare parts to nearly $460 million.

What is Howmet Aerospace's outlook for fiscal 2026?

The company expects revenue of $10.05 billion, plus or minus $50 million. It is targeting adjusted EBITDA of $3.23 billion, earnings per share of $5.27, and free cash flow of $1.9 billion. For fiscal Q3 2026, it expects revenue of $2.575 billion and earnings per share of $1.35, with narrow ranges around each figure.

How does Howmet benefit from demand for data centers and gas turbines?

Gas turbine revenue grew 38% in fiscal Q2 2026, driven by the need for natural gas power generation for data centers. Howmet holds a global share exceeding 50% in gas turbine blades and completed negotiations with seven major customers. The company is investing in new capacity in Japan, Europe, and Virginia, but new commitments may require approximately two years before entering production in 2028 and beyond.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

−
Production-capacity and equipment-supply-chain constraints could become obstacles to meeting demand; a new commitment for gas turbine equipment in August 2026 will not enter production until approximately August 2028, and some advanced coating equipment has lead times extending to three years. Management also acknowledged that achieving targeted aircraft production rates depends on the capacity of the entire industrial supply chain, not Howmet alone.
  • −Forged Wheels volumes declined 8% year over year in fiscal Q2 2026, despite improving 7% from the previous quarter. Passing through higher aluminum prices reduced the segment margin by approximately 360 basis points annually, and management said this pressure on the margin percentage is likely to continue for at least two more quarters.
  • −CAM is temporarily pressuring Fastening Systems margins; the acquired business had a margin of approximately 20% versus approximately 30% for the segment, causing the margin to decline sequentially during fiscal Q2 2026. Management expects the transaction's impact on earnings per share to be approximately breakeven in fiscal 2026, with most savings and positive improvement emerging during 2027.
  • −Engineered Structures revenue declined 13% to $269 million due to the sale of the Savannah facility, and even after excluding the impact of the sale, revenue growth was approximately flat. This means the improvement in the segment margin to 23.8% came from a better business mix and profitability, not from meaningful expansion in underlying revenue.
  • −Not all potential increases in defense demand have converted into confirmed orders; as of the August 6, 2026 call, the company had not observed an actual increase related to aircraft utilization intensity and did not expect an impact in fiscal Q3 2026. It also described a potential increase in spare parts during 2027 as expected but not guaranteed, and proposals to raise missile production had not yet converted into formal agreements.
  • −The valuation remains vulnerable to a pullback in expectations because the range of analyst targets is wide, from $270 to $370, while the low end is approximately 13% below the 52-week range high of $310. The average target of $317.09 is only approximately 2% above the 52-week range high, and the available data do not provide a reliable price-to-earnings ratio to help assess whether expected earnings growth offsets valuation risk.
  • How important is the CAM transaction to the Fastening Systems segment?

    Howmet completed the acquisition of CAM on April 6, 2026, for approximately $1.8 billion, and Fastening Systems revenue in fiscal Q2 2026 reached approximately $589 million, up 37%. Integrating CAM, which had a margin of approximately 20%, diluted the segment margin compared with Howmet's existing businesses, which had a margin near 30%. Management expects some operating savings to begin in the second half of fiscal 2026, but most savings and the positive impact on earnings per share are expected in 2027.

    What are the main drivers of commercial aerospace demand for HWM?

    Commercial aerospace revenue rose 28% in fiscal Q2 2026 and 26% organically, supported by new aircraft and spare parts. Management expects higher production rates for the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350, along with increases in the 737 and A320, and the fasteners business has begun receiving demand supporting higher wide-body aircraft rates during 2027. Howmet is also building production of LEAP-1B and GTF Advantage components to meet original equipment and retrofit program needs during 2027.

    How is Howmet using its cash flows in fiscal 2026?

    Fiscal Q2 2026 generated free cash flow of $479 million, bringing the first-half total to approximately $840 million. The company repurchased $800 million of shares through July 2026 and raised the quarterly dividend for fiscal Q3 2026 to $0.14 per share. It also repaid a Japanese yen loan valued at $186 million and is targeting a return of net debt to approximately one times adjusted EBITDA by the end of fiscal 2026.