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Home
Stocks
Humana Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall62
Balanced — near the middle of the marketMomentum TrapF 5/9Better than 62% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
40
38.6x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
73
18.3%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
28
7.4%▲4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
48
2.3x▲2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
32
0.87%▼2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
95
24.3%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
82
17▲3Top tier
HUM

HUM Humana Inc.

Humana Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
409.85
▲ ⁦+2.28%⁩ (+9.12)
Market Cap$49.2B
Beta0.74
52w Low52w High
163.11428.88
Last Week
⁦+2.21%⁩
Last Month
⁦+9.93%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+12.45%⁩
Last Year
⁦+50.12%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$410
Analyst target · 9 analysts
$415
⁦+1%⁩
See it fairly priced
Range ⁦$300–$513⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 9 analysts setting price target
$418.53
⁦+2.1%⁩
Current Price $409.85·Median $415.00
Low
$300.00
High
$513.00
Current price
$409.85
Average target
$418.53
Street summary

Target Stability Amid High Analyst Dispersion

The consensus price target remained stable at 418.53 over the last 7 days, based on 9 analysts, while it increased by 0.42% over the last 30 days from 416.78 to 418.53 following the addition of two analysts. The target range remains wide, between 300 and 513, with a median of 415, reflecting clear divergence in valuations; the consensus is also slightly above the current price of 409.85.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+0.4%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.41
Hold
Analyst coverage
⁦27 (+2)⁩
New coverage
Buy conviction
44%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
52%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time27 analysts rating
1
11
13
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.38 → 3.41
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-04
    Cantor Fitzgerald
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-08-24
    Wolfe Research
    Outperform
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-07-30
    Piper Sandler
    NeutralOverweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    38.56x
    3.94x44.30x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    28.39x
    4.64x37.16x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    17.04x
    3.77x30.13x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    -0.4%
    -138.2%7.8%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    18.3%
    -56.9%93.8%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -18.5%
    -160.1%130.2%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    13.7%
    12.8%90.7%
    Weak
  • ROIC
    7.4%
    -155.3%16.0%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.34x
    0.60x5.10x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    0.9%
    0.0%3.9%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    33.5%
    7.4%76.0%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-29 data

Company Overview

Humana Inc. is a healthcare company focused on Medicare Advantage plans, alongside Part D drug plans, a Medicaid platform, and CenterWell services. Revenue is derived primarily from health plan membership and funding, while the company seeks to improve care outcomes and control costs through value-based care providers, expand CenterWell services, and increase operational efficiency.

In Q2 fiscal 2026, adjusted revenue reached $40.9 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 26.2% driven by increased medical membership. GAAP net income was $694 million, and diluted earnings per share were $5.73, while adjusted earnings per share reached $7.61 and exceeded expectations by 22.4%. Despite revenue growth, the net margin remained at 0.8% and the operating margin at 1.8% according to data from July 29, 2026, highlighting the gap between business volume expansion and weak conversion of revenue into profit.

The recovery story depends on improving Medicare Advantage profitability and developing the plan mix, alongside growth in CenterWell and Medicaid. Management is targeting a sustainable pre-tax margin of at least 3% in fiscal 2028, after doubling the individual Medicare Advantage margin in fiscal 2026 excluding the impact of Stars ratings, and achieving further progress in fiscal 2027 through benefit adjustments and selective exits from low-return plans.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Q2 fiscal 2026 results demonstrated strength in scale and adjusted earnings; adjusted revenue grew 26.2% to $40.9 billion, and adjusted earnings per share reached $7.61, exceeding expectations by 22.4%.
  • Humana is targeting a sustainable pre-tax margin of at least 3% in fiscal 2028 and expects meaningful progress in fiscal 2027 through improved clinical and operational efficiency, benefit adjustments, and exits from low-profitability plans.
  • The consolidated operating cost ratio declined by 120 basis points year over year in Q2 fiscal 2026, and the company expects a decline of approximately 150 basis points for the full fiscal 2026; operating model changes also generated hundreds of millions of dollars in value during the first half of the year.
  • 11 out of 12 selected HEDIS and patient safety measures improved in the Stars cycle for the 2028 bonus year at a pace that exceeded historical growth rates in many areas, while quality improvement per member across key HEDIS measures remained 5% ahead of the prior year's pace by the end of Q2 fiscal 2026.
  • Humana completed the acquisition of MaxHealth for approximately $908 million and intends to finance it largely through the sale of its minority stake in Gentiva, valued at approximately $900 million. It also won a statewide Medicaid contract in Illinois beginning in January 2027.
  • On August 25, 2026, DaVita announced a value-based care agreement with Humana to serve more than 10,000 Medicare Advantage members with advanced stages of chronic kidney disease, supporting early intervention and coordinated care.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Q2 fiscal 2026 combines adjusted revenue growth of 26.2% with adjusted earnings per share exceeding expectations by 22.4%, indicating that medical membership growth is translating into performance above market estimates despite cost pressures.
  • +The efficiency program provides tangible leverage for the recovery; the operating cost ratio declined by 120 basis points year over year, and operating model changes generated hundreds of millions of dollars in value during the first half of fiscal 2026.
  • +Operational Stars indicators provide a path to improving quality revenue and competitiveness, as the pace of improvement exceeded historical levels in 11 of 12 selected measures, with a target for monthly Stars revenue per member that is more than 10% above the peer group median in the 2028 bonus year.
  • +Capital recycling supports expansion without fully financing the acquisition from new resources, as the $900 million value of the Gentiva stake sale approximates the $908 million cost of MaxHealth, alongside the establishment of a $1.5 billion contingent capital facility.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus is Neutral, with an average price target of $418.53 and a wide range between $300 and $513; the average is below the 52-week range high of $428.88, while the highest target exceeds that high and the lowest target falls clearly below it. This dispersion reflects disagreement over Humana's ability to convert revenue growth into a sustainable margin of at least 3% in fiscal 2028, particularly with a price-to-earnings ratio of 38.9 times according to data from July 29, 2026 and pressures from care costs and Stars ratings.

HoldAnalyst target: $418.53(+2.1%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What were Humana's key results in Q2 fiscal 2026?

Adjusted revenue reached $40.9 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 26.2% driven by medical membership growth. The company recorded GAAP net income of $694 million and diluted earnings per share of $5.73. Adjusted earnings per share reached $7.61, exceeding expectations by 22.4%. Humana reaffirmed its adjusted financial outlook for the full fiscal 2026 on July 29, 2026.

How does Humana plan to reach a 3% margin in fiscal 2028?

The company is targeting a sustainable pre-tax margin of at least 3% in fiscal 2028. The path depends on clinical and operational efficiency, Medicare Advantage benefit adjustments, improving the plan mix, and exiting low-return plans. In Q2 fiscal 2026, the consolidated operating cost ratio declined by 120 basis points year over year, with an expected decline of approximately 150 basis points for the full year. Fiscal 2027 exits will affect approximately 600,000 members, with an effort to recapture a significant portion of them within higher-performing plans.

Why are Stars ratings important for HUM stock?

Stars affect quality revenue and the rebates retained by Medicare Advantage plans, so Humana is targeting monthly Stars revenue per member that is more than 10% above the peer median. In the 2028 bonus year cycle, the pace of improvement exceeded historical levels in 11 out of 12 selected HEDIS and patient safety measures. Quality improvement per member across key HEDIS measures was also 5% ahead of the prior year's pace by the end of Q2 fiscal 2026. However, the company does not know the final CMS thresholds in advance and cannot guarantee the outcome.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Profitability remains highly sensitive to care costs; the benefit ratio exceeded 91%, and the net margin was 0.8% while the operating margin was 1.8% according to data from July 29, 2026, while Humana assumes medical and drug cost growth of between 7% and 8% during fiscal 2026.
  • −Restoring a margin of at least 3% in fiscal 2028 depends partly on a Stars recovery, but management does not know CMS thresholds in advance and cannot guarantee the outcome; lower Medicare Advantage Star ratings for fiscal 2026 also weighed on the outlook.
  • −Plan exits in fiscal 2027 will affect approximately 600,000 members, and although the company intends to recapture a significant portion of them, the fiscal 2025 experience recaptured only slightly more than 40%, creating risks to membership volume and mix.
  • −Management expects the drug cost trend to remain in the double digits in fiscal 2026 and rise modestly in fiscal 2027 due to new drugs, which could pressure Medicare Advantage and Part D margins if costs exceed pricing assumptions.
  • −The business remains subject to regulatory changes and CMS policies; the Part D premium stabilization program has ended, and the outcomes of litigation related to the Stars program remain unresolved, even though management confirmed that the scenario of terminating the stabilization program was included in fiscal 2027 bid assumptions.
  • −The valuation carries high execution risk; data from July 29, 2026 indicated a price-to-earnings ratio of 38.9 times despite a net margin of 0.8%, meaning that justifying the multiple depends on achieving the margin and Stars improvement plan through fiscal 2028.
  • Have Humana's care cost pressures begun to stabilize?

    Management said on July 29, 2026 that the medical and drug cost trend remained within its assumption of 7% to 8% for fiscal 2026. Inpatient services showed some improvement through lower admissions per thousand members and a lower cost per case, and performance was relatively better among members attributed to value-based care providers. In contrast, the drug cost trend remained in the double digits, and management expects it to rise modestly in fiscal 2027 due to new drugs. Therefore, margin improvement remains linked to continued utilization control and risk-appropriate pricing.

    How is Humana deploying capital in fiscal 2026?

    The company completed the acquisition of MaxHealth for approximately $908 million. In return, it announced the sale of its minority stake in Gentiva for approximately $900 million, with the transaction expected to close in Q4 fiscal 2026 and the proceeds to be used to finance most of the acquisition. It also established a $1.5 billion contingent capital facility with 10- and 30-year maturities and does not expect to draw on it in the near or medium term. The company is also expanding its Medicaid platform through the Illinois statewide contract scheduled to begin operations in January 2027.

    What does Humana's partnership with DaVita add?

    On August 25, 2026, DaVita announced a value-based care agreement with Humana for Medicare Advantage members. The agreement includes more than 10,000 patients in stages 3B to 5 of chronic kidney disease. It focuses on early intervention and multidisciplinary care with the aim of stabilizing kidney function and slowing its deterioration. The agreement aligns with Humana's data showing relatively better cost performance for members attributed to value-based care providers in Q2 fiscal 2026.