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Stocks
Hub Group, Inc.
HUBG

HUBG Hub Group, Inc.

Hub Group, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
36.04
▲ ⁦+1.04%⁩ (+0.37)
Market Cap$2.2B
Beta1.22
52w Low52w High
32.9053.26
Last Week
⁦+0.31%⁩
Last Month
⁦-24.60%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-16.57%⁩
Last Year
⁦-1.58%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall29
Weak — below market medianSucker StockF 6/8Better than 29% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
26
20.8x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
10
-5.8%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
47
4.9%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
77
1.4x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
31
1.36%▼2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
38
23.3%▲2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
72
5▲3Top tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$36
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$45
⁦+23%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$41–$48⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$25
⁦-30%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦9.8⁩% discount · ⁦4⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$25–$45⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$44.50
⁦+23.5%⁩
Current Price $36.04·Median $44.50
Low
$41.00
High
$48.00
Current price
$36.04
Average target
$44.50
Street summary

Hub Group (HUBG) Price Target Revision Analysis

The stock saw a notable positive revision in its average price target over the past seven days, rising from $40 to $44.5, an increase of 11.25%. However, the stock is currently trading at $46.23, a level that exceeds the average forecast and approaches the upper limit of $48. This trend reflects optimism in estimates, but it also indicates that the market price has already surpassed the targets set by analysts, noting that only one analyst contributes to the current price target, which increases uncertainty regarding the comprehensiveness of this consensus.

As of 2026-08-06
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.36
Hold
Analyst coverage
14
Buy conviction
36%
Target dispersion
19%
Analyst ratings over time14 analysts rating
1
4
8
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.22 → 3.36
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-04-15
    Raymond James
    Outperform· $48.00
  • = Reiterate2026-03-26
    Evercore ISI Group
    —· $41.00
  • = Reiterate2026-02-09
    Raymond James
    Outperform· $50.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    20.83x
    5.69x45.54x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    29.79x
    4.57x36.58x
    Expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • FCF Yield
    —
    —
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -5.8%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Weak
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -2.3%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    —
    —
  • ROIC
    4.9%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.45x
    0.55x4.37x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    1.4%
    0.1%4.8%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    28.6%
    6.6%80.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-02-05 data

Company Overview

Hub Group provides transportation and logistics services including intermodal transportation, dedicated transportation, brokerage, final mile delivery, managed transportation, and warehousing services. The company generates revenue from the ITS segment, which includes intermodal and dedicated transportation, and the Logistics segment, which includes brokerage, final mile delivery, managed transportation, and other services; according to preliminary fiscal year 2025 results, ITS generated approximately $2.2 billion and Logistics generated approximately $1.6 billion, noting that these figures are rounded and the final results had not been completed as of the February 5, 2026 call.

According to EDGAR data, fiscal year 2025 Q3 revenue was approximately $934.5 million, net income was $28.6 million, and earnings per share were $0.47, equivalent to a calculated net margin of approximately 3.1%. For fiscal year 2025, preliminary results projected consolidated revenue of $3.7 billion, down 7% year over year, and operating cash flow of approximately $194 million, but the company warned on February 5, 2026 that the results were preliminary and could change materially as a result of an ongoing accounting review.

The operating mix showed clear divergence: intermodal volume increased 1% year over year in fiscal year 2025 Q4 and revenue per load was stable, while brokerage volume declined 10% and revenue per load declined 4%. Logistics revenue also declined by a high-single-digit percentage in the same quarter, while new business wins partially offset weak demand and the loss of certain customer locations.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Hub Group expects revenue between $3.65 billion and $3.95 billion in fiscal year 2026, with ITS performance largely dependent on intermodal volume growth, while the company expects revenue from non-brokerage logistics activities to recover gradually, supported by new business, final mile delivery, and managed transportation.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Intermodal volume grew 1% in fiscal year 2025 Q4, with refrigerated volumes up 150%, Mexico volumes up 33%, and on-time performance improving by 90 basis points. In contrast, volume declined 4% year over year in January 2026, affected by a winter storm and a difficult comparison with customers pulling orders forward ahead of tariffs in the previous year.
  • Brokerage productivity improved 41% year over year in fiscal year 2025 Q4 due to investment in technology and restructuring, despite a 10% decline in volume and a 4% decline in revenue per load. Managed transportation productivity improved 12%, with new business added and a pipeline of additional growth opportunities, according to the February 5, 2026 call.
  • The consolidation of warehouses at CFX increased space utilization by 630 basis points year over year, while Hub Group was completing the onboarding of large new final mile delivery contracts. The onboarding of some of this business was delayed and its scope changed modestly in fiscal year 2025 Q4, temporarily pressuring volumes while start-up investments continued in fiscal year 2026 Q1.
  • The balance sheet provides flexibility to support investment and capital returns; debt was approximately $229 million and cash was approximately $113 million as of December 31, 2025, reducing net debt to approximately $116 million, about $50 million lower than on December 31, 2024. The company returned $44 million to shareholders during fiscal year 2025, with approximately $142 million remaining under its share repurchase authorization.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +Improved service could support additional gains in intermodal transportation; the company delivered another year of record service levels and share gains, and improved on-time performance by 90 basis points in fiscal year 2025 Q4, alongside strong growth in refrigerated shipping and Mexico.
    • +Efficiency initiatives produced measurable results, including a 41% improvement in brokerage productivity, a 12% improvement in managed transportation productivity, and a 630-basis-point year-over-year increase in CFX space utilization in fiscal year 2025 Q4. These gains could help protect profitability if the freight market remains weak or provide the company with operating leverage if demand improves.
    • +Cash generation remained strong despite the difficult freight cycle, with preliminary operating cash flow of approximately $194 million and capital expenditures of approximately $45 million in fiscal year 2025. Net debt also declined by approximately $50 million year over year to around $116 million, providing capacity to fund technology, equipment, dividends, and share repurchases.
    • +The integration of the assets of Marin Intermodal and West Coast final mile delivery provider Sith LLC was completed, and management said on February 5, 2026 that both businesses were performing well. Along with new business in final mile delivery and managed transportation, this provides growth sources beyond relying solely on a brokerage recovery.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Financial reporting reliability represents the most material risk; the company discovered an error that improperly understated purchased transportation costs and accounts payable during the nine months ended September 30, 2025, with the total recorded understatement amounting to $77 million. As of February 5, 2026, the company had not determined the final amount of the increase in costs and accounts payable, and it also said that the preliminary results could change materially and that the financial statements for the first three quarters of fiscal year 2025 would be restated.
    • −The delayed filing of the quarterly report resulted in Hub Group receiving a formal noncompliance notice from Nasdaq, according to an August 28, 2026 news report. This adds risks related to internal controls and compliance with listing rules to uncertainty about the final financial figures, even though no impact is expected on cash or operating cash flows for the periods concerned.
    • −The company faces a class-action lawsuit alleging securities fraud, according to August 25 and 28, 2026 news reports, noting that these allegations had not been adjudicated in the provided context. The August 25 report linked the restatement disclosures to an 18% decline in the stock, demonstrating the sensitivity of investor confidence to the quality of financial disclosure.
    • −Preliminary fiscal year 2025 revenue declined 7% to $3.7 billion, while fiscal year 2026 guidance ranges from $3.65 billion to $3.95 billion; the low end implies continued pressure, and the high end represents only a limited recovery compared with fiscal year 2024 revenue of $3.9 billion. Management also expects dedicated transportation performance to remain slightly below fiscal year 2025 because of lost customer locations.
    • −The demand and capacity environment continues to pressure operations; management described fiscal year 2025 as a difficult cycle characterized by stable demand and excess capacity, while brokerage volumes declined 10% and revenue per load declined 4% in fiscal year 2025 Q4. Dedicated revenue also declined because of lost locations, while final mile delivery was affected by weak demand and delays in onboarding new business, and management said that pressure on brokerage volumes would continue in the near term and affect Logistics profitability.

    Valuation

    The average analyst target is $44.5, within a range of $41 to $48, with a "Neutral" consensus; the average is approximately 16% below the 52-week high of $53.26 and approximately 35% above the low of $32.9. No reliable price-to-earnings ratio is available in the provided data, while the restatement of the first three quarters of fiscal year 2025, the lawsuit, and the Nasdaq notice reduce the reliability of historical earnings measures until the audited final results are issued.

    HoldAnalyst target: $44.5(+23.5%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-01; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    Why is HUBG restating its fiscal year 2025 results?

    Hub Group said on February 5, 2026 that it had discovered an accounting error that improperly understated purchased transportation costs and accounts payable during the nine months ended September 30, 2025. The total understatement recorded during those periods was $77 million, but the company had not estimated the final correction amount that would be added to costs and accounts payable. It intends to include restated financial statements for fiscal year 2025 Q1, Q2, and Q3 in Form 10-K, with no impact expected on total cash or operating cash flows.

    How did Hub Group's intermodal transportation perform in fiscal year 2025 Q4?

    Intermodal volume increased 1% year over year in fiscal year 2025 Q4, while revenue per load was stable and increased 3% sequentially. Refrigerated volumes grew 150% and Mexico volumes grew 33%, while Local East declined 4% and Local West declined 1%. On-time performance also improved by 90 basis points, but volume declined 4% year over year in January 2026 because of a winter storm and a difficult comparison.

    What is Hub Group's revenue outlook for fiscal year 2026?

    The company expects revenue between $3.65 billion and $3.95 billion in fiscal year 2026, compared with preliminary revenue of $3.7 billion in fiscal year 2025. It expects ITS to depend largely on intermodal growth, while Dedicated remains slightly lower because of lost customer locations. In Logistics, it expects activities excluding brokerage to recover, supported by final mile delivery and managed transportation, while pressure on brokerage volumes continues in the near term.

    Does Hub Group have a balance sheet capable of withstanding weakness in the freight market?

    Debt was approximately $229 million and cash was approximately $113 million as of December 31, 2025, equivalent to net debt of approximately $116 million. Net debt declined by approximately $50 million compared with the end of fiscal year 2024, and preliminary operating cash flow was $194 million in fiscal year 2025. The company also spent approximately $45 million on capital expenditures and returned $44 million to shareholders, and it expects capital expenditures between $35 million and $45 million in fiscal year 2026.

    What legal and regulatory risks does HUBG stock face?

    An August 25, 2026 news report stated that a class-action lawsuit had been filed against Hub Group alleging securities fraud related to financial disclosures, allegations that had not been adjudicated in the provided context. On August 28, 2026, news reports stated that the company had received a formal noncompliance notice from Nasdaq because of the delayed filing of Form 10-Q. These developments come alongside a planned restatement of the first three quarters of fiscal year 2025, increasing risks related to internal controls, reporting quality, and compliance with listing rules.

    Which activities could offset weakness in Hub Group's brokerage business?

    Intermodal performance improved, with volumes growing 1% in fiscal year 2025 Q4, alongside 150% growth in refrigerated shipping and 33% growth in Mexico. At CFX, warehouse consolidation increased space utilization by 630 basis points, while managed transportation added new business and improved its productivity by 12%. The company was also completing the onboarding of large final mile delivery contracts, although delays and modest scope changes weakened fiscal year 2025 Q4 volumes.

  • −The absence of a valid price-to-earnings ratio in the provided data makes it more difficult to value the stock following the restatement announcement, because investors cannot confidently rely on historical earnings before the audited final results are completed. The relatively narrow analyst target range of $41 to $48 and the "Neutral" consensus also do not reflect broad conviction in material upside, while the 52-week range of $32.9 to $53.26 showed significant volatility that was later associated with financial disclosure concerns.