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Stocks
H World Group Limited
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall76
Strong — clearly above market medianContrarianF 7/9Better than 76% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
68
14.4x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
56
11.1%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
85
12.9%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
64
2.1x▲2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
47
0.44%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
39
21.7%▲2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
81
9▲3Top tier
HTHT

HTHT H World Group Limited

H World Group Limited · NASDAQ
Market Closed
42.66
▼ ⁦-0.81%⁩ (-0.35)
Market Cap$13.1B
Beta0.11
52w Low52w High
35.3556.64
Last Week
⁦-8.73%⁩
Last Month
⁦+0.68%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-4.76%⁩
Last Year
⁦+18.73%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$43
Analyst target · 16 analysts
$54
⁦+27%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$32–$62⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$56
⁦+32%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦1⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$54–$56⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 16 analysts setting price target
$50.56
⁦+18.5%⁩
Current Price $42.66·Median $54.00
Low
$32.40
High
$62.40
Current price
$42.66
Average target
$50.56
Street summary

HTHT Stock Price Target Consensus Declines

The consensus price target fell from 62.4 to 50.56 over the last 7 and 30 days, a decline of 11.84 points or 18.97%, while the number of analysts remained at 16. Although the consensus and the median of 54 are above the current price of 43.01, the target range between 32.4 and 62.4 reflects clear divergence in estimates, suggesting that potential optimism is not uniform among analysts.

As of 2026-09-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-19.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.16
Buy
Analyst coverage
⁦19 (+1)⁩
New coverage
Buy conviction
100%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
70%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time19 analysts rating
3
16
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.21 → 4.16
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-18
    Benchmark
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-03-09
    UBS
    —· $62.40
  • ⬆ Upgrade2025-10-27
    HSBC
    HoldBuy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    14.45x
    4.56x36.49x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    —
    —
  • EV / EBITDA
    11.98x
    2.75x22.03x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    8.4%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    11.1%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -49.5%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    41.3%
    12.0%66.5%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    12.9%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.14x
    0.65x5.48x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    0.4%
    0.1%5.9%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    20.8%
    8.9%99.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-17 data

Company Overview

H World Group operates a multi-brand hotel network concentrated in China, with an international presence through HWI, primarily targeting the economy and midscale hotel segments through the Hanting, JI, and Orange brands, alongside the upper-midscale Intercity, Grand JI, Crystal, and Mercure brands. A growing share of the revenue model relies on managed and franchised hotels, with this business generating revenue of RMB 3.6 billion in Q2 FY2026, up 25.2%, and gross operating profit of RMB 2.2 billion, up 18.5%. As of June 30, 2026, the group operated 13,417 hotels in China, and its hotel development pipeline totaled 3,054 hotels, with operating and pipeline hotels spanning 1,468 Chinese cities.

In Q2 FY2026, group revenue increased 10.8% year over year to RMB 7.1 billion; China revenue grew 14.9% to RMB 5.9 billion, while international revenue declined 5.8% to RMB 1.3 billion due to the closure of leased hotels and lower rental income. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 20% to RMB 2.7 billion, and its margin expanded by three percentage points to 38.3%. Adjusted net income also grew 26.9% to RMB 1.7 billion, and its margin improved by three percentage points to 24%.

The annual results reflect a clear improvement compared with the loss-making period: FY2025 revenue was approximately $25.3 billion, net income was $5.1 billion, and earnings per share were 1.6, compared with revenue of $23.9 billion, net income of $3.0 billion, and earnings per share of 0.96 in FY2024. Net income in FY2022 was a loss of $1.8 billion before turning into a profit of $4.1 billion in FY2023. The provided statements do not include an annual gross profit figure, so the latest assessment of operating profitability is based on adjusted Q2 FY2026 metrics.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The number of operating rooms increased 12.7% year over year in Q2 FY2026, helping raise the gross booking value of the group's hotels by 13.2% to RMB 30.5 billion, alongside growth in room nights booked by H Rewards members.
  • The management and franchise business continued to drive growth in Q2 FY2026, with its revenue rising 25.2% to RMB 3.6 billion and its gross operating profit increasing 18.5% to RMB 2.2 billion, contributing to an adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin of 38.3%.
  • Average daily rate at H World China increased 2.6% in Q2 FY2026, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of positive growth, and helped increase revenue per available room by 1.1% despite a more cautious travel spending environment.
  • Product upgrades support scalability, as management said Hanting 4.0 hotels generate materially better revenue per available room than older versions, while the total number of new operating and pipeline Hanting and JI hotels exceeded 200 hotels. JI and Hanting also ranked first and second globally by room count in the Hotel 2025 ranking cited by management.
  • On August 17, 2026, management maintained its target of opening between 2,200 and 2,300 hotels during FY2026, its full-year outlook for revenue per available room, and its goal of achieving a positive profit in the international HWI business. Openings totaled 1,035 hotels in the first half, including 498 hotels in Q2 FY2026, while the development pipeline reached 3,054 hotels as of June 30, 2026.
  • On August 17, 2026, the board of directors approved a three-year shareholder return plan totaling $2.5 billion and initiated it with a regular cash dividend of approximately $275 million, after the group completed its 2024 return plan one year ahead of schedule, according to management.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The shift toward management and franchising provides a driver that combines expansion with improving profitability; in Q2 FY2026, revenue from this business grew 25.2%, while the group's adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 20% and its margin expanded to 38.3%.
  • +H World has a measurable expansion path, with 13,417 operating hotels in China and 3,054 hotels in the development pipeline as of June 30, 2026, compared with a strategic target of 20,000 hotels in 2,000 cities. This is supported by momentum in the Hanting, JI, and Orange brands, in addition to 1,738 operating and pipeline hotels under upper-midscale brands, up 13.4% year over year.
  • +The China business demonstrated an ability to raise prices while expanding the network; average daily rate increased 2.6% and revenue per available room rose 1.1% in Q2 FY2026, while China revenue increased 14.9% to RMB 5.9 billion.
  • +Annual earnings improved strongly in FY2025, with net income rising to $5.1 billion from $3.0 billion in FY2024 and earnings per share increasing to 1.6 from 0.96. The $2.5 billion three-year return plan supports the case for converting operating cash flows into shareholder distributions.

▼ Selling Case5 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus is “Buy,” and the average target of $62.4 matches both the high and low targets, indicating that the provided consensus data is based on a single, non-divergent estimate. The target is above the 52-week range high of $56.64, while the full range extends from $36.03 to $56.64; this gives the consensus target a positive tone, but reliance on a single target increases the fragility of the valuation anchor if openings slow or HWI weakness persists.

BuyAnalyst target: $62.4(+46.3%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove H World's earnings growth in Q2 FY2026?

Group revenue increased 10.8% to RMB 7.1 billion, while adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization rose 20% to RMB 2.7 billion. The margin for this profit measure expanded by three percentage points to 38.3% due to the increased contribution of the management and franchise business and control of general and administrative expenses. Adjusted net income also increased 26.9% to RMB 1.7 billion, and its margin improved to 24%. Hotel operating costs grew 7.4%, and selling, general, and administrative expenses increased 6.1%, both at a slower pace than revenue growth.

How important is the management and franchise model to H World?

The management and franchise business generated revenue of RMB 3.6 billion in Q2 FY2026, up 25.2% year over year. Its gross operating profit reached RMB 2.2 billion, up 18.5%. The increased contribution of this asset-light business helped expand the group's adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin to 38.3%. However, the business's operating profit grew more slowly than its revenue, a divergence that should be monitored.

Is H World on track to meet its FY2026 opening target?

The group opened 1,035 hotels in the first half of FY2026, including 498 hotels in Q2. The figure was 20% lower than the previous first half, according to a Morgan Stanley analyst's question, and management attributed this to the comparison base and the supply chain. Nevertheless, on August 17, 2026, management maintained its target of opening 2,200 to 2,300 hotels during FY2026. The hotel development pipeline totaled 3,054 hotels as of June 30, 2026, increasing both year over year and quarter over quarter.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −The international business faces clear operational weakness; in Q2 FY2026, HWI revenue declined 5.8% to RMB 1.3 billion, and revenue per available room fell 3.8% as occupancy decreased by 3.5 percentage points, despite a 0.9% increase in average daily rate. Management attributed this to the closure of leased hotels, the impact of the Middle East conflict, and Southeast Asian expansions entering the initial operating phase.
  • −The pace of openings slowed, with approximately 1,035 hotels opened in the first half of FY2026, 20% fewer than in the comparable period according to an analyst's question, while management pointed to the comparison base and supply chain impacts. Achieving the FY2026 target of 2,200 to 2,300 openings requires execution to accelerate during the second half.
  • −The demand environment is cautious; the number of domestic trips in China grew 5.4% to 3.5 billion trips in the first half of FY2026, but tourism spending increased only 2% to RMB 3.2 trillion, reflecting more trips alongside more conservative spending decisions. Management also said severe weather weakened performance in some markets during the early part of the 2026 summer holiday and maintained a cautiously optimistic demand outlook.
  • −Gross operating profit from the management and franchise business grew 18.5% in Q2 FY2026, a slower pace than its 25.2% revenue growth. This mathematical divergence indicates pressure on the business's margin compared with the previous period, even as group margins improved due to the higher contribution of the asset-light model and expense control.
  • −The available valuation anchor is based on only one target of $62.4, as the high, low, and average targets are identical, meaning there is no diverse range of estimates that could show differences in analyst opinions. This target also exceeds the 52-week range high of $56.64, so achieving it requires performance above the peak recorded during that period.
How did H World perform in China compared with its international business?

China revenue grew 14.9% to RMB 5.9 billion in Q2 FY2026, supported by network expansion and a recovery in revenue per available room. In contrast, international revenue declined 5.8% to RMB 1.3 billion due to the closure of leased hotels and lower rental income. Revenue per available room at HWI declined 3.8%, with occupancy decreasing by 3.5 percentage points, while the same metric grew 1.1% in Europe. Management maintained its goal of achieving a positive profit at HWI during FY2026.

What role do Hanting, JI, and Orange play in H World's strategy?

Hanting, JI, and Orange represent what management calls the golden triangle of limited-service hotels and a primary driver of the target of 20,000 hotels in 2,000 cities. Management said on August 17, 2026, that Hanting 4.0 generates materially better revenue per available room than older versions and that new operating and pipeline Hanting and JI hotels exceeded 200 hotels. JI and Hanting also ranked first and second globally by room count in the Hotel 2025 ranking mentioned on the call. Orange reached twenty-sixth place in the same ranking, supporting the group's expansion led by its core brands.

What does H World's new shareholder return plan include?

On August 17, 2026, the board of directors approved a three-year shareholder return plan totaling $2.5 billion. The board approved a regular cash dividend of approximately $275 million as the first distribution under the plan. Management said it completed the 2024 return plan one year ahead of schedule and that operating cash flows and a strong balance sheet support continued returns. The provided information does not specify how the remaining amount will be allocated between dividends or other instruments over the plan's duration.