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Hilltop Holdings Inc.
HTH

HTH Hilltop Holdings Inc.

Hilltop Holdings Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
38.68
▼ ⁦-0.57%⁩ (-0.22)
Market Cap$2.2B
Beta0.88
52w Low52w High
30.7840.41
Last Week
⁦+0.39%⁩
Last Month
⁦-0.23%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+2.55%⁩
Last Year
⁦+9.73%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall39
Weak — below market medianTurnaroundF 6/9Better than 39% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
58
14.3x▲17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
21
-1.3%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
47
——Around median
▸
Safety
21
——Bottom tier
▸
Capital Return
62
1.96%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
71
11.0%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
33
33Bottom tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$39
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$42
⁦+9%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$42–$42⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$42.00
⁦+8.6%⁩
Current Price $38.68·Median $42.00
Low
$42.00
High
$42.00
Street summary

Target Price Stable Despite Reduced Analyst Coverage

The target price remained unchanged at 42 over the past day, 7 days, and 30 days, while the number of analysts used in the consensus declined from 3 to just 1 analyst. The high, low, and median are all also at 42, indicating no dispersion in the current estimate, but the decrease in the number of participants reduces the strength of the consensus signal.

As of 2026-09-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.00
Hold
Analyst coverage
⁦4 (-2)⁩
Buy conviction
0%
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time4 analysts rating
4
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.00 → 3.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-28
    Piper Sandler
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2025-10-27
    Stephens & Co.
    —· $36.00
  • ⬆ Upgrade2025-04-02
    Raymond James
    UnderperformMarket Perform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    14.33x
    3.16x25.26x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    15.44x
    2.76x22.06x
    Above average
  • EV / EBITDA
    12.29x
    3.07x24.55x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    -5.0%
    -19.9%19.1%
    Near median
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -1.3%
    -36.3%104.2%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    21.1%
    -99.4%194.2%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    79.8%
    23.5%98.3%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    5.3%
    -36.5%24.6%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.21x
    0.25x7.31x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    2.0%
    0.6%9.0%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    28.2%
    9.8%97.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-24 data

Company Overview

Hilltop Holdings Inc. is a financial services company operating through three main businesses: PlainsCapital Bank for community banking and commercial lending, PrimeLending for originating and selling mortgage loans, and Hilltop Securities for public finance, wealth management, structured finance, and fixed income services. The group generates income from net interest on loans and deposits, mortgage revenue, commissions and fees, trading activities, and financial advisory services.

In fiscal Q2 2026, Hilltop reported revenue of $389.0 million and net income of $36.5 million, equivalent to $0.63 per diluted share, compared with net income of $37.8 million and earnings of $0.64 per share in fiscal Q1 2026. Return on average assets was 1.0% and return on average equity was 6.9%, while net interest income rose 5% year over year to $116 million and the net interest margin widened to 3.21%.

Business contributions varied clearly in fiscal Q2 2026: PlainsCapital Bank generated pretax income of $51 million, a net interest margin of 3.42%, and an efficiency ratio of 55.0%, while PrimeLending recorded a pretax loss of $2 million. Hilltop Securities generated pretax income of $12 million on net revenue of $124 million, with a pretax margin of 10.0%, supported by year-over-year growth of 73% in structured finance net revenue and 10% in fixed income.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Management raised its forecast for average loan growth, excluding mortgage warehouse lending and loans held by PrimeLending, to a range of 5% to 7% in fiscal 2026 after loans held for investment grew by $239 million during Q2; this included $114 million in commercial real estate and $54 million in commercial and industrial lending.
  • Improving economics at PlainsCapital Bank support banking earnings, as the net interest margin rose to 3.42% and pretax income reached $51 million, while yields on newly originated loans ranged from 6.5% to 7.0% depending on the asset class and transaction.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Hilltop Securities achieved 13% year-over-year growth in net revenue during fiscal Q2 2026, with a 73% jump in structured finance revenue and 10% growth in fixed income services; public finance revenue also reached $30 million amid strong municipal issuance volumes.
  • Hilltop strengthened capital returns in fiscal Q2 2026 by repurchasing $47 million of shares, raising the quarterly cash dividend 10% to $0.22 per share, and increasing the repurchase authorization by $75 million, bringing the total fiscal 2026 authorization to $200 million.
  • The common equity tier 1 capital ratio reached 18.30%, and tangible book value per share rose to $32.36 in fiscal Q2 2026, leaving a capital base that supports the priority of organic growth followed by returning capital to shareholders.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +PlainsCapital Bank provides a clear core growth engine after generating $51 million in pretax income in fiscal Q2 2026, alongside loan growth, a widening net interest margin, and a decline in the cost of interest-bearing deposits to 3.27%.
    • +Hilltop Securities has become a stronger source of earnings diversification, reporting $124 million in net revenue and a pretax margin of 10.0%, benefiting from structured finance, wealth management, and fixed income services.
    • +The company combines a common equity tier 1 capital ratio of 18.30% with expected average loan growth of 5% to 7% in fiscal 2026, while repurchasing $47 million of shares during Q2 and increasing the quarterly dividend by 10%.
    • +Credit quality indicators for certain assets improved, as nonperforming assets declined steadily during the twelve months ended fiscal Q2 2026, and the company recorded a net reversal of the provision for credit losses of $1 million.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −PrimeLending remained under significant pressure and recorded a pretax loss of $2 million in fiscal Q2 2026; high mortgage rates, property taxes, insurance costs, and tight inventory constrained the recovery of production volumes and gain-on-sale margins.
    • −Competition is intensifying on both sides of PlainsCapital Bank's balance sheet; management noted increasing competition from in-state and out-of-state institutions, and indicated that higher offered rates and deposit pricing exceptions may limit its ability to reduce funding costs.
    • −Management expects net interest income to remain near the levels recorded in fiscal Q2 2026, with the net interest margin potentially declining slightly during the second half of fiscal 2026, reducing the impact of loan growth on earnings.
    • −Classified and special mention loans increased in fiscal Q2 2026 due to one significant credit deterioration in the single-family residential sector; net charge-offs also totaled $3.2 million, and specific reserves increased by $1.9 million.
    • −Structured finance and fixed income markets revenue is volatile depending on interest rates, liquidity, and production volumes, while broker-dealer fee guidance ranges from a 3% contraction to 1% growth, despite the strong performance recorded in fiscal Q2 2026.
    • −Valuation carries relatively elevated expectations risk because the sole analyst target of $42 exceeds the 52-week range high of $40.41, while the consensus is neutral and there is no variation between the highest and lowest targets. Net insider sales of $3.2 million across ten sales with no purchases during the three months ended with the latest transaction on August 24, 2026, add a weak trading signal, with the caveat that these sales may have been prearranged.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus on Hilltop Holdings is neutral, with an average price target of $42 and identical high and low targets of $42; therefore, the target range provides no diversity in analyst estimates. This target is above the 52-week range high of $40.41, but the absence of an available price-to-earnings ratio and PrimeLending's ongoing losses and margin pressures make the stock's valuation heavily dependent on continued growth at the bank and broker-dealer.

    HoldAnalyst target: $42(+8.6%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-01; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    Which businesses are driving Hilltop Holdings' earnings in fiscal Q2 2026?

    PlainsCapital Bank was the largest disclosed operating contributor, with pretax income of $51 million and a net interest margin of 3.42%. Hilltop Securities generated pretax income of $12 million on net revenue of $124 million. By contrast, PrimeLending recorded a pretax loss of $2 million due to weakness in the mortgage market.

    Why did Hilltop raise its loan growth outlook for fiscal 2026?

    Loans held for investment grew by $239 million during fiscal Q2 2026. Growth came from $114 million in commercial real estate, $54 million in commercial and industrial loans, $45 million in broker-dealer loans, and $28 million from seasonal growth in mortgage warehouse lending. Based on the stability of the business pipeline, management raised its forecast for average loan growth to a range of 5% to 7% for fiscal 2026, excluding the items specified in its guidance.

    Did Hilltop Holdings' profitability improve in fiscal Q2 2026?

    Net income was $36.5 million and diluted earnings per share were $0.63 in fiscal Q2 2026. These figures were slightly below net income of $37.8 million and earnings of $0.64 per share in fiscal Q1 2026. However, net interest income rose 5% year over year, and noninterest income increased 4% year over year.

    Why are PrimeLending's losses continuing?

    PrimeLending faced high mortgage interest rates, higher property taxes and insurance costs, and limited housing inventory in fiscal Q2 2026. The gain-on-sale margin for loans sold to third parties declined by six basis points year over year to 217 basis points, while mortgage revenue fell by $1.8 million. The business reduced its fixed costs by approximately $10 million year over year compared with fiscal Q2 2025, but it remained unprofitable, with a pretax loss of $2 million.

    How is Hilltop Holdings returning capital to shareholders?

    The company repurchased $47 million of shares during fiscal Q2 2026 and paid $11.6 million in dividends to shareholders. The board raised the quarterly cash dividend 10% to $0.22 per share. It also increased the share repurchase authorization by $75 million, bringing the total fiscal 2026 authorization to $200 million.

    What are the main credit and funding risks for Hilltop Holdings?

    Classified and special mention loans increased in fiscal Q2 2026, largely due to the deterioration of one significant loan in the single-family residential sector. The company recorded net charge-offs of $3.2 million and increased specific reserves by $1.9 million, while the bank's allowance for credit losses coverage ended at 1.03%. On the funding side, average deposits were $10.4 billion, down $263 million from fiscal Q2 2025, despite the ending balance remaining stable sequentially at $10.5 billion.