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Home
Stocks
Hercules Capital, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall90
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 4/9Better than 90% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
66
8.1x▲17.4xTop tier
▸
Growth
74
12.1%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
89
——Top tier
▸
Safety
62
——Around median
▸
Capital Return
72
11.00%▲0.18%Top tier
▸
Momentum
63
-5.5%▼1.3%Around median
▸
Sentiment
76
6▲3Top tier
HTGC

HTGC Hercules Capital, Inc.

Hercules Capital, Inc. · NYSE
Market Open
16.36
▼ ⁦-1.27%⁩ (-0.21)
Market Cap$3.1B
Beta0.75
52w Low52w High
13.7019.13
Last Week
⁦-3.59%⁩
Last Month
⁦-7.20%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+2.96%⁩
Last Year
⁦-11.09%⁩
Fair Value
Current price⁦$17⁩
  • Analyst targetsLow confidence
    3 analysts
    ⁦$16⁩
    ⁦−6%⁩
    Typical for this method across large companies: ⁦+18%⁩
  • Value at the industry multiple
    Book value × ⁦1.1⁩, median of 128 companies
    ⁦$13⁩
    ⁦−20%⁩
    Range ⁦⁦$7.67⁩–⁦$32⁩⁩
0
methods value it above the price
1
methods near the price
1
methods value it below the price

10-year US Treasury yield ⁦5.31%⁩ as of ⁦2026-10-05⁩. Estimates computed from company data and analyst targets, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$15.50
⁦-5.3%⁩
Current Price $16.36·Median $15.50
Low
$15.50
High
$15.50
Street summary

Target Holds Steady Despite UBS Upgrade

The price target remained unchanged at 15.5 over one day, seven days, and 30 days, with the high, low, mean, and median all identical; therefore, there are currently no differences in analyst estimates, and their number is unavailable. Compared with the current price of 17.72, the target is approximately 12.5% lower, reflecting a cautious price outlook despite the absence of any recent target cut.

As of 2026-09-08
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.11
Buy
Analyst coverage
9
Buy conviction
89%
High
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time9 analysts rating
2
6
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.00 → 4.11
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-09-01
    UBS
    NeutralBuy
  • = Reiterate2026-05-18
    UBS
    Neutral· $15.50⚡Bold call
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-02-13
    Piper Sandler
    OverweightNeutral· $17.50
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    8.06x
    3.02x24.14x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    8.43x
    2.61x20.85x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    12.24x
    2.97x23.76x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    0.3%
    -21.4%21.0%
    Above average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    12.1%
    -36.3%104.9%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    34.4%
    -99.9%193.6%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    93.5%
    22.1%98.0%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    9.9%
    -36.5%24.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    5.23x
    0.26x6.96x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    11.0%
    0.0%8.8%
    High
  • Payout Ratio
    87.9%
    11.9%103.5%
    High
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Last updated: 2026-08-31Based on 2026-05-05 data

Company Overview

Hercules Capital, Inc. is a specialized finance company operating through a publicly traded business development company and private credit funds managed by Hercules Adviser LLC. The company generates income primarily by providing debt financing to technology and life sciences companies, with equity investments and warrants linked to some transactions; in fiscal Q1 2026, approximately 50% of assets were in life sciences and approximately 50% in technology, spread across 139 companies, with no subsector accounting for more than 25% of the portfolio. Assets managed by the platform totaled approximately $6.1 billion, up 21.8% year over year, while first-lien loans represented approximately 89% of the portfolio.

In fiscal Q2 2026, revenue according to EDGAR data totaled approximately $138.0 million, compared with approximately $136.4 million in fiscal Q1 2026, while net income was $130.2 million and earnings per share were $0.67. The data does not include a gross profit margin for this quarter, but published operating indicators showed total investment income growth of 8.5% year over year and an effective portfolio yield of 13.4%. Net asset value increased to $12.15 per share, while non-accrual loans remained at 0.1% of the portfolio by value.

The latest available details on the business mix showed that fiscal Q1 2026 saw 56% of commitments and 60% of fundings directed to life sciences companies, compared with 44% of commitments to technology companies. New debt and equity commitments reached a record $1.81 billion, with total fundings exceeding $706 million and net debt portfolio growth of $298 million. In that quarter, net investment income totaled $88.1 million, or $0.48 per share, and covered the base distribution by 120%.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Strong originations supported portfolio growth; Hercules Capital recorded record commitments of $1.81 billion in fiscal Q1 2026, followed by new originations of $927.3 million in its fiscal Q2 2026 results.
  • Asset metrics improved in fiscal Q2 2026, as net asset value increased to $12.15 per share, total investment income grew 8.5% year over year, and the effective portfolio yield reached 13.4%.
  • Credit quality remained strong in fiscal Q2 2026, with non-accrual loans representing only 0.1% of the portfolio and distribution coverage reaching 125%, compared with base distribution coverage of 120% in fiscal Q1 2026.
  • Mergers and acquisitions contributed to higher cash flows from early repayments; company management had projected fiscal Q2 2026 prepayments of between $350 million and $500 million, following $225.8 million in the previous quarter, enabling capital to be redeployed into new transactions.
  • HTGC priced $325 million of 6.3% notes due in 2031 to refinance existing debt; the transaction extends liability maturities but is expected to produce a modest increase in interest expense.
  • The company announced that Seth Meyer became President of Hercules effective May 18, 2026, and that Andrew Olson succeeded him as Chief Financial Officer, while Scott Bluestein continued as Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The decline in non-accrual loans to 0.1% in fiscal Q2 2026, after loans rated 4 and 5 together reached 0.9% in the previous quarter, indicates strong credit quality despite volatility in technology and private credit markets.
  • +Net investment income covered the base distribution by 120% in fiscal Q1 2026, followed by distribution coverage of 125% in fiscal Q2 2026; the company also entered the year with undistributed earnings of $149.1 million, or $0.80 per share at the end of the first quarter.
  • +Scale and liquidity provide the capacity to capitalize on financing opportunities; the platform managed approximately $6.1 billion in assets and maintained more than $1 billion in platform-level liquidity in fiscal Q1 2026, alongside record commitments of $1.81 billion.
  • +Diversification limits the impact of distress at any single company or subsector, as investments were spread across 139 companies, assets were divided approximately equally between life sciences and technology, and no subsector represented more than 25% of the portfolio.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $15.5 and identical high and low targets of $15.5. This target lies within the 52-week range of $13.70–$19.62, but is approximately 21% below the top of the range and approximately 13% above its bottom; this positioning reflects a balance between credit quality and distribution coverage on the one hand, and elevated leverage, yield pressure, and interest costs on the other.

BuyAnalyst target: $15.5(-5.3%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

How does Hercules Capital generate revenue?

Hercules Capital generates income primarily from interest on financing provided to technology and life sciences companies, along with income from equity investments and warrants. Assets managed through the business development company and private credit funds totaled approximately $6.1 billion in fiscal Q1 2026, up 21.8% year over year. During the same period, the effective portfolio yield was 12.8% and the core yield was 12.2%, while Hercules Adviser LLC contributed approximately $6.7 million to net investment income, including distributions and expense reimbursements.

What were HTGC's most important fiscal Q2 2026 results?

Revenue according to EDGAR data totaled approximately $138.0 million, net income was $130.2 million, and earnings per share were $0.67 in fiscal Q2 2026. Published indicators showed total investment income growth of 8.5% year over year and an effective yield of 13.4%. Net asset value also increased to $12.15 per share, while distribution coverage reached 125% and non-accrual loans remained at 0.1%.

Can Hercules Capital maintain its distributions?

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −GAAP leverage increased to 115.4% in fiscal Q1 2026 from 104.4% in the previous quarter, reaching the upper limit of the company's customary historical range of 100% to 115%; this increases the sensitivity of net income and asset valuations to financing costs and credit volatility.
  • −The technology portfolio faces disruption risks associated with artificial intelligence; management said that business models and profit margins could change and that the sector would include winners and losers, while more than 88% of the value of venture capital transactions in fiscal Q1 2026 was concentrated in artificial intelligence and machine learning companies.
  • −Profitability faces pressure from yields and financing costs; the core yield declined to 12.2% in fiscal Q1 2026 from 12.5% in the previous quarter, while interest and fee expense increased to $30.8 million from $28.2 million, and the company also projected a further increase in interest expense during fiscal Q2 2026.
  • −Revenue growth according to EDGAR data was limited between fiscal Q1 and Q2 2026, increasing only from $136.4 million to $138.0 million, or approximately 1.2%, despite growth in portfolio size and new originations.
  • −Elevated prepayments, estimated at between $350 million and $500 million for fiscal Q2 2026, could result in the loss of income from repaid assets if the company cannot redeploy the funds quickly and on appropriate terms, while management also expected new originations to moderate after the first quarter's record level.
  • −Life sciences investments are exposed to regulatory uncertainty related to the FDA, which prompted some companies to strengthen their balance sheets; at the same time, lower valuations in some technology sectors slowed merger and acquisition discussions and increased uncertainty regarding the timing and valuations of exits.
Net investment income covered the base distribution by 120% in fiscal Q1 2026 and covered the total distribution, including the $0.07 supplemental distribution, by 102%. That was the twenty-third consecutive quarter in which the company paid a supplemental distribution alongside the quarterly base distribution. In fiscal Q2 2026, distribution coverage improved to 125%, but its sustainability depends on yields, financing costs, and the speed at which prepayments are redeployed.
How significant is the credit risk in HTGC's portfolio?

Non-accrual loans represented only 0.1% of the portfolio by value in both fiscal Q1 and Q2 2026. In the first quarter, loans rated 4 and 5 together represented approximately 0.9% of the portfolio, the lowest reported level since fiscal Q2 2022, and all debt investments due for repayment were current on principal and interest payments according to the latest report available at the time. First-lien loans also represented approximately 89% of the portfolio, but elevated leverage of 115.4% increases the impact of any subsequent credit deterioration.

How does artificial intelligence affect Hercules Capital's portfolio?

The investment and credit teams monitor the impact of artificial intelligence on portfolio companies, particularly borrowers in the software sector. Management said on May 5, 2026, that some companies benefit from greater efficiency, faster innovation, and the adoption of artificial intelligence products, but acknowledged that business models and profit margins could change and that the market would include winners and losers. The company therefore tightened loan structures, covenants, and terms, and typically targets debt of less than one times annual recurring revenue and a loan-to-value ratio below 20% for software loans.

Why are prepayments an important factor for HTGC stock?

Management projected prepayments of between $350 million and $500 million in fiscal Q2 2026, compared with approximately $225.8 million in the previous quarter, attributing the increase primarily to known mergers and acquisitions. These payments can generate fees and release liquidity for redeployment in life sciences and technology, including space and defense technologies, network communications, and business services. However, they also create reinvestment risk if repaid loans are not quickly replaced with assets of suitable quality and yield, particularly given the expected moderation in originations following the first quarter's record $1.81 billion.