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Home
Stocks
The Hershey Company
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall61
Balanced — near the middle of the marketFalling StarF 5/9SafeBetter than 61% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
49
23.5x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
40
7.7%▲7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
87
16.3%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
70
1.9x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
66
3.15%▲2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
28
-3.0%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
41
13▲3Around median
HSY

HSY The Hershey Company

The Hershey Company · NYSE
Market Closed
173.32
▼ ⁦-0.59%⁩ (-1.02)
Market Cap$35.2B
Beta0.10
52w Low52w High
161.43239.48
Last Week
⁦-0.99%⁩
Last Month
⁦-5.92%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-4.16%⁩
Last Year
⁦-6.62%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$173
Analyst target · 12 analysts
$200
⁦+15%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$185–$240⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$160
⁦-8%⁩
Sees it slightly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦1⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$160–$200⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 12 analysts setting price target
$204.62
⁦+18.1%⁩
Current Price $173.32·Median $200.00
Low
$185.00
High
$240.00
Current price
$173.32
Average target
$204.62
Street summary

A slight decline in consensus as the estimate range widens

The consensus stood at $204.62 over the last 7 days, with no change in the number of analysts, which remained at 12. Over a 30-day period, the consensus fell from $208.77 to $204.62, a decline of $4.15 or 1.99%, coinciding with an increase in the number of analysts from 6 to 12; therefore, the decline reflects an expansion of the coverage base more than a sharp shift in opinion. The target ranges from $185 to $240, while the median is $200, indicating clear variation in the estimates.

As of 2026-09-07
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+0.1%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.39
Hold
Analyst coverage
⁦23 (+6)⁩
New coverage
Buy conviction
35%
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
32%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time23 analysts rating
2
6
14
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.12 → 3.39
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-01
    TD Cowen
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-21
    RBC Capital
    Sector Perform
  • = Reiterate2026-07-31
    Bernstein
    Market Perform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    23.49x
    4.61x36.85x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    18.31x
    3.86x30.86x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    15.09x
    2.86x22.90x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    6.3%
    -37.4%14.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    7.7%
    -16.7%29.2%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -2.3%
    -135.4%136.3%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    38.4%
    9.2%67.5%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    16.3%
    -29.3%20.8%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.88x
    0.61x4.86x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    3.2%
    0.9%8.3%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    75.0%
    15.9%176.6%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    4.27
    -4.825.90
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-30 data

Company Overview

The Hershey Company operates in the manufacture and marketing of chocolate, confectionery, and salty snacks, with sales driven by everyday business, instant consumption, seasons, and major activation programs. The portfolio drivers mentioned in its fiscal 2026 Q2 earnings call include Hershey, Jolly Rancher, Cadbury, and PayDay, alongside SkinnyPop and Dot’s in salty snacks, while it also generates sales through measured retail channels, foodservice, specialty retail, and international markets.

In fiscal 2026 Q2, revenue reached $2.79 billion, up 6.6% year over year, and net income according to EDGAR data was approximately $457.7 million, equivalent to a net margin of about 16.4%. The company reported earnings per share of $1.90 versus $1.21 in the comparable period, exceeding estimates of $1.43, while EDGAR figures indicate gross profit of approximately $1.3 billion.

For the twelve months ended in fiscal 2026, Hershey recorded revenue of $12.2 billion, gross profit of $4.7 billion, and net income of $1.5 billion. This represents an improvement from fiscal 2025, when revenue was $11.7 billion, gross profit was $3.9 billion, and net income was $883.3 million, with North America Confectionery remaining the core growth engine and salty snacks and international markets adding to the company’s mix.

What's Driving the Stock

  • On July 30, 2026, Hershey raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted sales and earnings outlook to the upper half of its previous ranges, after fiscal 2026 Q2 revenue reached approximately $2.79 billion and earnings per share reached $1.90 versus expectations of $1.43.
  • Management estimated that consumption of the company’s confectionery products in U.S. retail grew by approximately 3% during the first half of fiscal 2026, but that this understated actual demand by about two percentage points due to growth in unmeasured channels and the timing of Easter shipments, while retail inventory replenishment following package price changes in April 2026 added approximately another point of growth.
  • The fiscal 2026 second-half plan is betting on launches and events that include Hershey crème bars, the Hershey movie, and Halloween programs, and management confirmed that it expects organic net sales growth in North America Confectionery in both fiscal 2026 Q3 and Q4 despite tougher year-over-year comparisons.
  • Dot’s represents a demand driver, but difficulties meeting growth increased expedited freight and logistics costs and constrained production volumes in fiscal 2026 Q2; automation began to help during fiscal 2026, with additional capacity scheduled to come online in fiscal 2027.
  • Management confirmed on July 30, 2026, that the fiscal 2027 framework remains achievable, with a starting point of 2% North America Confectionery sales growth due to the shorter Easter season, an expected contribution from salty snacks and international markets, and good visibility into cocoa cost deflation in fiscal 2027.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Fiscal 2026 Q2 showed clear operating strength, as revenue grew 6.6% year over year to $2.79 billion and earnings per share rose to $1.90 from $1.21, exceeding estimates of $1.43.
  • +Performance for the twelve months ended in fiscal 2026 improved to revenue of $12.2 billion and net income of $1.5 billion, compared with revenue of $11.7 billion and net income of $883.3 million in fiscal 2025.
  • +The Hershey crème bars, Hershey movie, and Halloween programs, alongside momentum in Dot’s, Jolly Rancher, and Cadbury, provide defined growth paths for the second half of fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027 instead of relying on pricing alone.
  • +Expected cocoa cost deflation in fiscal 2027 could support margin recovery, while management said that hedging, pricing, productivity, and technology investments provide it with several tools to manage commodity volatility.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −Hershey lowered its fiscal 2026 gross margin improvement forecast from approximately 400 basis points to slightly below 400 basis points due to salty snack supply-chain challenges and higher expedited freight and logistics costs, with a tail of these costs expected to persist during the second half of fiscal 2026.

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $204.62, within a wide range of $185 to $240, while the consensus leans toward Neutral rather than Buy; the average is below the 52-week range high of $239.48, while the highest target nearly matches it. The wide target range of $185 to $240 reflects differing views on how much earnings will benefit from cocoa deflation versus margin and demand risks, and the available data do not provide a valid price-to-earnings ratio to add another valuation anchor.

HoldAnalyst target: $204.62(+18.1%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove HSY’s fiscal 2026 Q2 results?

Hershey’s fiscal 2026 Q2 revenue reached approximately $2.79 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 6.6%. Earnings per share rose to $1.90 from $1.21, exceeding estimates of $1.43, while net income according to EDGAR reached $457.7 million. Management explained that growth in foodservice and unmeasured channels and retail inventory replenishment following package price changes in April 2026 made underlying demand stronger than measured-store data indicated.

Does Hershey expect growth in the second half of fiscal 2026?

Management confirmed on July 30, 2026, that it expects organic net sales growth in North America Confectionery in fiscal 2026 Q3 and Q4. The demand plan includes Hershey crème bars, the Hershey movie, Halloween programs, and fall football events, alongside support for the Cadbury and PayDay brands. Conversely, the company faces tougher comparisons with fiscal 2025 innovations, and periods of declining everyday retail confectionery sales may occur despite growth in total organic sales.

How do cocoa prices affect Hershey’s earnings?

Management said during the July 30, 2026, call that the highest cocoa costs in fiscal 2025 were concentrated in Q3, providing a more supportive comparison in fiscal 2026 Q3. It also confirmed good visibility into cocoa cost deflation in fiscal 2027 even if futures remain around the levels referenced during the call. Nevertheless, earnings remain exposed to commodity and weather volatility, and the company relies on hedging, pricing, and productivity to manage this exposure.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −The pace of earnings recovery depends partly on the path of cocoa; although management sees cocoa cost deflation in fiscal 2027, it acknowledged that the environment remains volatile due to commodity prices and weather, and that forecasts for subsequent years require further refinement.
  • −Hershey faces a potential growth slowdown due to difficult comparisons with the success of fiscal 2025 innovations, while management also warned of possible periods of year-over-year contraction in everyday retail confectionery sales during the second half of fiscal 2026 despite expecting quarterly organic sales growth.
  • −Management described the confectionery market as highly competitive and said that share movements during fiscal 2026 were affected by innovation and widening price gaps versus a major competitor, making the success of new launches and commercial investment essential to regaining share momentum.
  • −Consumer pressure remains a material factor, as management noted on July 30, 2026, that lower-income households face greater pressure, while weak macroeconomic conditions persist in Mexico and demand elasticity and pricing may affect sales volumes.
  • −Net insider transactions during the three months ended August 26, 2026, totaled negative $117.9 million, with 329 sales and no purchases recorded; this is a weak trading signal on its own because these sales may have been prearranged, and the available data contain no evidence to the contrary.
  • What is the Dot’s supply-chain problem, and when will it improve?

    During the first half of fiscal 2026, Dot’s struggled to keep pace with strong demand, leading to greater use of expedited freight, higher logistics costs, and production volumes that were modestly below plan. Management said on July 30, 2026, that the most difficult part of the problem was largely behind the company and that automation had begun to help during fiscal 2026. Additional production capacity is scheduled to come online in fiscal 2027, but a tail of elevated freight and logistics costs will persist during the second half of fiscal 2026.

    What does the analyst consensus say about HSY’s valuation?

    The analyst consensus rates HSY as Neutral, with an average price target of $204.62. Targets range from $185 to $240, with the upper end approaching the 52-week range high of $239.48. This divergence indicates differing estimates regarding the speed of margin recovery from cocoa and logistics pressures and the ability of Hershey’s innovations to support share and growth.