| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 65 | 15.5x | 17.8x | Around median | |
Growth | 10 | -5.2% | 7.1% | Bottom tier | |
Quality | 30 | 1.5% | 4.5% | Bottom tier | |
Safety | 60 | — | 2.6x | Around median | |
Capital Return | 79 | 2.52% | 2.12% | Top tier | |
Momentum | 72 | -8.8% | 2.9% | Top tier | |
Sentiment | 90 | 12 | 3 | Top tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Harley-Davidson operates through three interconnected segments: HDMC, the motorcycle company that sells motorcycles, parts and accessories, apparel, and licenses; Harley-Davidson Financial Services, which finances customers and dealers; and LiveWire, which specializes in electric motorcycles. In quarter 2 of fiscal 2026, HDMC generated revenue of $1.1 billion, including $848 million from motorcycles, $177 million from parts and accessories, $62 million from apparel and licensing, and $17 million from other activities; confirming that motorcycle sales remain the primary source of revenue, with customization and financing playing complementary roles.
In quarter 2 of fiscal 2026, consolidated revenue was $1.2 billion, gross profit was $421.1 million, net income was $79.8 million, and earnings per share were $0.75. According to details from the earnings call, consolidated revenue declined 6% year over year, mainly due to a 55% decline in HDFS revenue following the transition to a less capital-intensive model, while HDMC revenue increased 6% and its operating income reached $72 million, with a margin of 6.6% versus 5.9% a year earlier.
Core operating activity improved despite mixed segment performance: global motorcycle retail sales increased 1% to approximately 42,500 motorcycles, North American sales rose 3% to approximately 30,000 motorcycles, and wholesale shipments increased 9% to 39,200 motorcycles. In contrast, HDMC's gross margin declined to 27.5% from 28.6%, while HDFS recorded revenue of $117 million and operating income of $22 million, and LiveWire continued to report operating losses within fiscal 2026 expectations.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The analyst consensus on HOG is neutral, with an average target of $27.6 and a wide range between $17 and $33; the average is approximately 12% below the 52-week range high of $31.25, while the lowest target is close to the range low of $17.09. This dispersion reflects the market's balancing of HDMC's improvement and the raised guidance on one hand against declining HDFS revenue, margin and tariff pressures, and LiveWire losses on the other.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Consolidated revenue was $1.2 billion, net income was $79.8 million, and earnings per share were $0.75 in quarter 2 of fiscal 2026. HDMC revenue increased 6% to $1.1 billion due to higher shipments and currency effects, with 39,200 motorcycles shipped, an increase of 9%. In contrast, consolidated revenue declined 6% because HDFS revenue fell 55% after the financing business model changed.
The plan showed initial progress in inventory and dealer profitability during quarter 2 of fiscal 2026; dealer inventory declined 17% globally, and more than 85% of North American inventory consisted of 2026 models. Management expects domestic dealer profitability to double during fiscal 2026, with improved price realization and strong residual values for used motorcycles. The plan also targets $150 million in recurring cost savings and more than $350 million in HDMC adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization in fiscal 2027.
Super Glide and Deadwood represent Harley-Davidson's move toward more accessible, customizable motorcycles under the Back to the Bricks plan. Management noted strong Super Glide sales and high suggested retail price realization during the July 23, 2026 call, while Deadwood began arriving at dealers in quarter 3 of fiscal 2026. These models complement the strong performance of redesigned Trike motorcycles and the Sport and Adventure Touring families in North America.
HDFS transitioned to a less capital-intensive model following its partnership with KKR and PIMCO and the sale of a large portion of its retail loan portfolio, with approximately two-thirds of future originations expected to be sold. As a result, HDFS revenue declined 55% to $117 million in quarter 2 of fiscal 2026, but its operating income reached $22 million, with a margin of 18.5%. Retail loan originations increased 10% to $940 million, while the credit loss ratio improved to 3.0% from 3.3%.
The risks include the decline in HDMC's gross margin to 27.5%, expected tariff costs of between $75 million and $90 million, and challenges involving domestic suppliers that affected margins. EMEA sales also declined 9%, and European market share fell from 4% to 3% in quarter 2 of fiscal 2026. Additional risks include an expected operating loss of between $70 million and $80 million at LiveWire and pressure on operating leverage resulting from keeping production below shipments during fiscal 2026.
Net insider activity during the three months ended with the latest transaction on August 11, 2026, amounted to purchases of $1.3 million, through three purchases and three sales. At the company level, Harley-Davidson repurchased 7.9 million shares for $158 million during the first half of fiscal 2026, including 1.3 million shares for $30 million in quarter 2. These transactions support the balance-sheet confidence case, but they do not eliminate margin, European, and LiveWire loss risks, and insider sales may have been prearranged unless the data proves otherwise.
