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Stocks
HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock
HMH

HMH HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock

HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock · NASDAQ
Market Closed
20.23
▲ ⁦+0.10%⁩ (+0.02)
Market Cap$904.0M
Beta0.73
52w Low52w High
16.3224.50
Last Week
⁦+5.53%⁩
Last Month
⁦-1.89%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-16.61%⁩
Last Year
—
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall94
Excellent — top fifth of the marketDistressBetter than 94% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
96
0.0x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
22
-9.7%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
65
8.7%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
70
1.0x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
97
—2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
—
—2.9%N/A
▸
Sentiment
64
33Around median
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$20
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$28
⁦+38%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$24–$32⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$43
⁦+115%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦3⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$28–$43⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Monthly plan
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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$28.00
⁦+38.4%⁩
Current Price $20.23·Median $28.00
Low
$24.00
High
$32.00
Current price
$20.23
Average target
$28.00
Street summary

HMH Holding stock price target analysis

Bullish tilt

HMH stock shows a notable positive gap between its current price ($19.26) and the lowest analyst price target ($24), indicating general optimism despite a 2.34% reduction in the average price target over the past thirty days to reach $28. However, a decline in the number of analysts providing price targets from 7 to 3 has been observed in recent days, which may indicate uncertainty or a reassessment of coverage, even though previous ratings remain at "Buy" and "Outperform" levels.

As of 2026-08-31
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.29
Buy
Analyst coverage
⁦7 (-3)⁩
Buy conviction
100%
High
Target dispersion
40%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time7 analysts rating
2
5
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.33 → 4.29
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-04-27
    Piper Sandler
    Overweight· $32.00
  • = Reiterate2026-04-27
    Evercore ISI Group
    Outperform· $27.00
  • = Reiterate2026-04-27
    Stifel Nicolaus
    —· $27.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    —
    —
  • Forward P/E
    10.18x
    3.36x26.89x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    7.64x
    2.12x16.98x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    42.1%
    -21.0%15.7%
    Exceptional
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -9.7%
    -19.7%63.1%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -43.6%
    -141.8%256.7%
    Below average
  • Gross Margin
    33.2%
    7.8%72.1%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    8.7%
    -12.7%20.6%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.96x
    0.40x3.19x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    1.46
    -1.814.34
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-06 data

Company Overview

HMH provides equipment, technologies, and aftermarket services to the offshore and onshore drilling and mining markets, with a clear focus on the floating rig fleet and harsh-environment rigs. Its revenue comes from three main streams: aftermarket services, including repairs and digital upgrades, spare parts, and product and equipment sales. The company benefits from its installed customer base, as longer drilling contracts and rig reactivations generate demand for maintenance, spare parts, automation, and digital upgrades throughout the contract term.

In Q2 fiscal 2026, HMH reported revenue of $170.8 million, gross profit of $61.3 million, net income of $5.0 million, and earnings per share of $0.42. These figures equate to a gross margin of approximately 35.9%, while adjusted EBITDA reached $34 million with a margin of 19.8%, increasing year over year due to cost discipline, favorable mix, and operating efficiency. Free cash flow adjusted to exclude one-time IPO payments was $22 million.

Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue was divided among aftermarket services at $89 million, or approximately 52% of the total, spare parts at $61 million, or approximately 36%, and products at $21 million, or approximately 12%. Spare-parts revenue increased 17% year over year, while aftermarket services declined 4% due to slower repair activity, and product revenue fell 66% because of a lower opening backlog and delays in delivery, installation, and commissioning in the Middle East. For comparison, fiscal 2025 revenue was approximately $821.8 million, gross profit was $245.7 million, and net income was $45.5 million.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Orders reached $205 million in Q2 fiscal 2026, up 19% year over year, and exceeded revenue with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.2 times; management also expects this ratio to remain above one times in Q3 fiscal 2026.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Aftermarket service orders jumped 50% year over year and 19% quarter over quarter to $118 million, driven by strong digital technology orders, providing support for future revenue and giving the company better operational planning visibility.
  • Spare-parts revenue reached $61 million, up 17% year over year, while orders totaled $65 million, as customers prepared for new drilling contracts and offshore activity increased.
  • HMH has visibility into approximately 80% of the expected floating rig operating years within its installed base in 2027, compared with approximately 65% at the comparable point of the previous year, while contracted rig years during the first seven months of 2026 were 50% higher than in the same period of 2025.
  • Management maintained its adjusted EBITDA guidance for fiscal 2026 at $157 million to $177 million and expects second-half revenue to be clearly stronger than first-half revenue as service and spare-parts orders convert into revenue.
  • The offshore drilling cycle supports potential demand for HMH; industry forecasts presented by management indicate that marketed floating rig utilization could approach 90% in 2027, alongside longer contracts and rising backlogs for rigs equipped with HMH packages.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +Orders exceeding revenue, at $205 million and a 1.2 times ratio in Q2 fiscal 2026, provide a tangible indication of backlog growth despite volatility in project timing.
    • +The aftermarket services and spare-parts mix, which represented approximately 88% of quarterly revenue, provides a base more closely tied to the installed fleet than standalone equipment sales, with service orders growing 50% year over year and spare-parts revenue increasing 17%.
    • +The adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.8% demonstrated resilience despite a 66% decline in product revenue, while adjusted EBITDA increased 3% year over year and 13% quarter over quarter to $34 million.
    • +The company ended the quarter with $120 million in cash and approximately $195 million in total liquidity, with no long-term debt maturities until June 2028 and capital and development spending of only $5.2 million during the quarter.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Product revenue fell 66% year over year and 38% quarter over quarter to $21 million in Q2 fiscal 2026 due to a lower backlog at the beginning of the quarter and delays in equipment deliveries and installation and commissioning work in the Middle East.
    • −Middle East disruptions had an approximately $10 million negative impact on revenue during the quarter, with equipment required for installation and commissioning remaining stranded on vessels; management believes the revenue is recoverable but acknowledged that some delays in new orders may extend beyond fiscal 2026.
    • −Aftermarket service revenue declined 4% year over year to $89 million because of weaker repair activity, while longer-cycle digital orders replaced some shorter-cycle repair work, potentially delaying the timing of order-to-revenue conversion.
    • −Orders declined 6% quarter over quarter, and customer decisions were slower than management expected in products and repairs due to delayed approvals, purchase orders, and geopolitical uncertainty, making the second-half improvement dependent on the timing of customer spending.
    • −The fiscal 2026 outlook depends on the second half being clearly stronger than the first half, while an approximately 20% gap remains in visibility into floating rig activity for 2027, and management acknowledges upside and downside scenarios related to recontracting and reactivation.
    • −Reported profitability is under pressure from nonrecurring costs, as Q2 fiscal 2026 included $22.8 million in IPO expenses and $5 million in restructuring costs, compared with net income of only $5 million.

    Valuation

    Analyst consensus rates HMH shares a “Buy,” with an average price target of $28 and a wide range of $24 to $32. The average target is above the upper end of the 52-week range of $24.50, while the lowest target is slightly below it, meaning the bullish case requires digital and spare-parts orders to translate into actual growth and the company to overcome product delays in the Middle East. No usable price-to-earnings ratio is available in the provided data, so the stock's valuation here is based on the target range and the 52-week range of $16.32–$24.50 rather than an unreliable earnings multiple.

    BuyAnalyst target: $28(+38.4%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-09; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    How does HMH generate revenue?

    HMH generates revenue from aftermarket services, spare parts, and products related to offshore and onshore drilling and mining equipment. In Q2 fiscal 2026, service revenue was $89 million, spare-parts revenue was $61 million, and product revenue was $21 million. Services and spare parts together represented approximately 88% of quarterly revenue, highlighting the importance of the installed base and ongoing customer relationships.

    What were HMH's key results in Q2 fiscal 2026?

    Revenue was $170.8 million, gross profit was $61.3 million, and net income was $5.0 million. The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $34 million and a margin of 19.8%, with adjusted EBITDA increasing 3% year over year. It also generated free cash flow of $22 million after excluding one-time cash payments related to the IPO.

    Why did HMH's product revenue decline?

    Product revenue declined 66% year over year and 38% quarter over quarter to $21 million in Q2 fiscal 2026. Management attributed this to a lower backlog at the beginning of the quarter, delayed order bookings, and postponed equipment deliveries and installation and commissioning work in the Middle East. Management estimated the Middle East's negative impact on quarterly revenue at approximately $10 million, with some delays in new orders potentially extending beyond fiscal 2026.

    What supports HMH's growth outlook for 2027?

    The company has visibility into approximately 80% of the expected floating rig operating years within its installed base in 2027, compared with approximately 65% at the comparable point of the previous year. Contracted rig years during the first seven months of 2026 were 50% higher than in the same period of 2025. Management also presented industry forecasts indicating that marketed floating rig utilization could approach 90% in 2027, supporting demand for spare parts, digital upgrades, and automation.

    What is HMH's guidance for fiscal 2026?

    Management maintained its adjusted EBITDA guidance for fiscal 2026 at $157 million to $177 million during the August 6, 2026 call. It expects revenue in the second half of fiscal 2026 to be clearly stronger than in the first half as service and spare-parts orders convert into revenue. It also expects capital spending, excluding development costs, to equal 2% of fiscal 2026 revenue.

    What are the main risks to monitor for HMH shares?

    The clearest operating risks are delays in customer spending on repairs and products and the 66% year-over-year decline in product revenue during Q2 fiscal 2026. The situation in the Middle East also caused an approximately $10 million negative impact, with equipment stranded on vessels and installation and commissioning work delayed. Achieving an improvement in fiscal 2026 depends on a second-half acceleration, despite orders declining 6% quarter over quarter and approximately 20% of expected floating rig activity for 2027 remaining outside current visibility.