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Herbalife Nutrition Ltd.
HLF

HLF Herbalife Nutrition Ltd.

Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. · NYSE
Market Closed
12.02
▼ ⁦-2.12%⁩ (-0.26)
Market Cap$1.2B
Beta0.88
52w Low52w High
7.5620.40
Last Week
⁦-1.23%⁩
Last Month
⁦+4.34%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+0.50%⁩
Last Year
⁦+26.79%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall92
Excellent — top fifth of the marketContrarianF 5/9Better than 92% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
97
7.7x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
39
5.5%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
97
24.7%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
42
2.9x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
94
—2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
32
33.8%▲2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
50
2▼3Around median
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$12
Analyst target · 2 analysts
$17
⁦+41%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$17–$17⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$55
⁦+359%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦8.2⁩% discount · ⁦1⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$17–$55⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Annual plan
$17/mo
Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 2 analysts setting price target
$17.00
⁦+41.4%⁩
Current Price $12.02·Median $17.00
Low
$17.00
High
$17.00
Street summary

Target Holds Steady with Limited Expansion in Coverage

Bullish tilt

Price targets were unchanged over the last day, 7 days, or 30 days; consensus remained at 17, with the high, low, and median all matching, indicating no apparent divergence among the available estimates. The number of analysts increased from one to two, but this did not change the consensus target. Compared with the current price of 12.28, consensus reflects a potential upside of approximately 38%.

As of 2026-09-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.50
Buy
Analyst coverage
⁦4 (+1)⁩
New coverage
Buy conviction
75%
High
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time4 analysts rating
1
2
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.40 → 3.50
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-07
    Citigroup
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-05-04
    Mizuho Securities
    —· $17.00
  • = Reiterate2026-02-19
    Citigroup
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    7.66x
    4.61x36.85x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    4.20x
    3.86x30.86x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    4.83x
    2.86x22.90x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    37.4%
    -37.4%14.9%
    Exceptional
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    5.5%
    -16.7%29.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -50.8%
    -135.4%136.3%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    77.7%
    9.2%67.5%
    Exceptional
  • ROIC
    24.7%
    -29.3%20.8%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.86x
    0.61x4.86x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-05-06 data

Company Overview

Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. sells health, wellness, and nutrition products through a global network comprising more than two million distributors, more than 60 thousand Nutrition Clubs, and millions of customers across 95 markets. Its model relies on distributor recommendations and direct customer relationships, while the company is expanding its portfolio from general products to nutrition tailored to individual data through Protocol, Vionic, Link Biosciences, and Prüvit. This ecosystem aims to connect health measurements, recommendations, products, and daily habits, while adding subscriptions and e-commerce to the existing sales model.

In Q1 fiscal 2026, revenue reached $1.3 billion, up 7.8% year over year on a reported basis and 5.4% in constant currency, while global volume rose 4.1%. Gross profit was approximately $1.0 billion, with a gross margin of 77.9%, representing a year-over-year decline of 40 basis points, while net income was $61.9 million and earnings per share were $0.57, according to EDGAR data. Adjusted EBITDA was $176 million, with a margin of 13.3%, exceeding management's guidance range of $155–175 million.

The geographic mix was uneven in Q1 fiscal 2026: Asia Pacific sales rose 17%, and India achieved a record $275 million, with reported growth of 32%, while Latin America also grew 17%. In contrast, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa rose only 1% on a reported basis and declined 6% in constant currency, while North America fell 3% and China declined 12%. This mix shows that acceleration in India and Latin America offset weakness in Western markets and China.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Herbalife delivered its third consecutive quarter of revenue and volume growth in Q1 fiscal 2026, with revenue increasing 7.8% and volume rising 4.1%, while both revenue and adjusted EBITDA exceeded the upper end of management's guidance.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

India was the largest driver, with record quarterly sales of $275 million, up 32% on a reported basis, 39% in local currency, and 37% in volume, following the reduction in the goods and services tax on most products in September 2025.
  • In April 2026, the company completed a $1.45 billion secured debt refinancing, reduced the coupon on its secured notes by 450 basis points, and expects annual cash interest savings of approximately $45 million, with no significant maturities before 2028.
  • On April 30, 2026, Herbalife completed the acquisition of most of the assets of Vionic's core personalized nutrition business for $55 million payable over five years, plus potential payments of up to $95 million tied to product sales. Management planned to launch Vionic personalized supplements through distributors in 11 European countries in late June 2026 and then in the United States in July 2026.
  • The company expanded its Protocol test to ten selected markets in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa in March 2026 and connected the platform with Vionic and Link Biosciences capabilities to customize formulations. Management did not include any direct revenue from Protocol or Vionic in its fiscal 2026 outlook, so a successful launch could represent upside to guidance rather than an assumed component of it.
  • Operating activities generated $114 million in cash in Q1 fiscal 2026, and total leverage declined from 3.9 times in 2023 to 2.7 times at the end of the quarter, while net leverage stood at 2.1 times, with a target of reducing it to below 2 times by the end of fiscal 2026.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case5 pts

    • +The company has returned to a meaningful growth trajectory, recording year-over-year constant-currency growth in eight of the past ten quarters, with Q1 fiscal 2026 growth reaching 5.4% despite uneven regional performance.
    • +A network comprising more than two million distributors and more than 60 thousand Nutrition Clubs gives Herbalife an established channel through which to expand Vionic, Protocol, and subscriptions across 95 markets, instead of building a new distribution channel from scratch.
    • +The financial structure improved after repaying nearly $540 million of debt since 2024 and completing the refinancing in April 2026; according to management's estimate, the lower borrowing cost provides approximately $45 million in annual savings, with a target of reducing total debt to approximately $1.4 billion in 2028.
    • +Personalized nutrition offers a growth pathway that has not yet been incorporated into fiscal 2026 guidance, while Vionic provides a more affordable personalized vitamin and mineral formulation, Link Biosciences provides the ability to manufacture customized powder formulations, and Protocol serves as a unified data and experience layer.
    • +Insider activity provided a neutral signal, with net purchases of 13,572 shares over three months and one purchase transaction with no sales, while the latest recorded transaction occurred on June 4, 2026; this is a limited supporting signal rather than independent evidence of value.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −A substantial portion of the growth acceleration depends on India; it alone contributed approximately $275 million of total quarterly revenue of $1.3 billion and grew 32% on a reported basis, while management said the impact of the goods and services tax reduction would begin facing a comparable base in September 2026 and that the growth rate would slow thereafter.
    • −Major markets are experiencing clear operational weakness: sales in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa declined 6% in constant currency, with volume down 11%; North America fell 3%, with volume down 5%; and China declined 12%, with volume down 18%. Management acknowledged that it had not yet found the right foothold in China, which represents approximately 4% of sales and does not contribute meaningfully to profit.
    • −The core portfolio faces competitive pressure and shifting consumer preferences; management described the protein shake as having become more like a commodity and linked its ability to refresh the offering to the success of personalized nutrition and Protocol. Protocol remains in testing, and its integration into Nutrition Clubs and DS Commerce was still in its early stages at the time of the May 6, 2026 call.
    • −Gross margin declined 40 basis points to 77.9% in Q1 fiscal 2026, while adjusted EBITDA margin fell 20 basis points to 13.3%. Pressures included 50 basis points from input-cost inflation, 30 basis points from sales mix, and 50 basis points from currency, while management assumed it would absorb higher oil costs without passing them through to prices during the remainder of fiscal 2026.
    • −Q2 fiscal 2026 guidance points to a slowdown from first-quarter growth, with management expecting reported revenue growth of between 1.5% and 5.5%, compared with 7.8% in the first quarter, and adjusted EBITDA of between $150 million and $170 million, compared with $176 million. The guidance includes an approximately $10 million year-over-year headwind to adjusted earnings, half from the timing of a Chinese government grant and half from the impact of the goods and services tax in India.

    Valuation

    The average analyst price target is $17, with a “Buy” consensus, but the highest and lowest targets are identical at $17, meaning the data do not provide a diverse range of valuation estimates. This target is approximately 16.7% below the 52-week range high of $20.40 and approximately 125% above the range low of $7.56. The valuation therefore depends primarily on the continuation of the operational recovery and leverage reduction, balanced against the risks of a slowdown in India, weakness in Europe and China, and margin contraction.

    BuyAnalyst target: $17(+41.4%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-02; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What drove HLF's growth in Q1 fiscal 2026?

    Herbalife's revenue reached approximately $1.3 billion, up 7.8% year over year on a reported basis and 5.4% in constant currency. Global volume rose 4.1%, pricing added approximately $40 million, and currency provided a positive impact of approximately $29 million. India was the most significant driver, with record sales of $275 million and reported growth of 32%, while Asia Pacific and Latin America each recorded reported growth of 17%.

    Did Herbalife's debt position improve after the refinancing?

    In April 2026, the company completed a $1.45 billion secured refinancing, including $800 million of notes due in May 2033, a $225 million term loan, and a $425 million revolving facility. Management expects the new structure to reduce cash interest payments by approximately $45 million annually, with no significant maturities before 2028. Total leverage was 2.7 times and net leverage was 2.1 times as of March 31, 2026, and management is targeting net leverage below 2 times by the end of fiscal 2026.

    How important is the Vionic acquisition to Herbalife's strategy?

    On April 30, 2026, Herbalife completed the acquisition of most of the assets of Vionic's core personalized nutrition business, a British company with a patented engine for designing supplements based on health background and biomarker data. The base payments total $55 million over five years, with potential payments of up to $95 million tied to the sales performance of Vionic products. Management planned to begin offering personalized vitamin and mineral formulations through distributors in 11 European countries in late June 2026, followed by the United States in July 2026.

    Has the Protocol platform begun generating meaningful revenue?

    Protocol was still in the testing phase at the time of the May 6, 2026 call, after the program was expanded to ten selected markets in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa during March 2026. Management said it had not included any direct revenue from Protocol or Vionic in its fiscal 2026 outlook. The platform aims to connect health measurements, data, recommendations, and personalized products, but its use within Nutrition Clubs and the integration of certain commerce and subscription functions were still at an early stage.

    What are the main geographic weaknesses in HLF's results?

    Sales in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa declined 6% in constant currency in Q1 fiscal 2026, with volume down 11%. North America sales fell 3% and volume declined 5%, although management said severe weather and in-transit shipments at quarter-end affected the timing of revenue recognition. In China, reported sales declined 12% and volume fell 18%; the market represents approximately 4% of group sales and does not make a meaningful profit contribution, according to management.

    What is Herbalife's guidance for fiscal 2026?

    Management expects reported revenue growth of between 1.5% and 5.5% in fiscal 2026 and between 1% and 5% in constant currency. It expects adjusted EBITDA of between $675 million and $705 million, capital expenditures of between $50 million and $80 million, and capitalized software implementation costs of between $35 million and $55 million. It also expects an adjusted effective tax rate of approximately 30% and a $20 million to $25 million headwind from the goods and services tax mismatch in India.

  • −The goods and services tax mismatch in India could pressure profitability; while the tax on most products declined to 5%, the tax on services remained at 18%. Management expects this mismatch to result in an additional net cost of between $20 million and $25 million in fiscal 2026, equivalent to a 40–50 basis-point headwind to adjusted earnings margin.