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Stocks
The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall89
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 9/9Better than 89% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
88
8.8x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
58
8.0%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
95
——Top tier
▸
Safety
27
——Bottom tier
▸
Capital Return
65
1.70%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
64
8.0%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
72
15▲3Top tier
HIG

HIG The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.

The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
136.36
▼ ⁦-0.32%⁩ (-0.44)
Market Cap$37.4B
Beta0.46
52w Low52w High
120.33146.07
Last Week
⁦-0.62%⁩
Last Month
⁦-1.96%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+5.49%⁩
Last Year
⁦+4.22%⁩
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$136
Analyst target · 4 analysts
$154
⁦+13%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$146–$154⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$335
⁦+146%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$154–$335⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 4 analysts setting price target
$151.33
⁦+11.0%⁩
Current Price $136.36·Median $154.00
Low
$146.00
High
$154.00
Current price
$136.36
Average target
$151.33
Street summary

Target Stability Despite a Decline in the Number of Analysts

The consensus price target remained unchanged at 151.33 over 1 day, 7 days, and 30 days. Although all targets remain above the current price of 136.36, the target range is relatively narrow, between 146 and 154, with a median of 154, indicating a positive bias without a recent adjustment in the outlook level.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.48
Hold
Analyst coverage
⁦23 (+1)⁩
New coverage
Buy conviction
39%
Target dispersion
6%
Analyst ratings over time23 analysts rating
2
7
14
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.67 → 3.48
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-27
    RBC Capital
    Sector Perform
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-07-15
    Piper Sandler
    OverweightNeutral
  • = Reiterate2026-06-05
    Wells Fargo
    Overweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    8.77x
    3.16x25.26x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    10.17x
    2.76x22.06x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • FCF Yield
    —
    —
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    8.0%
    -36.3%104.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    40.3%
    -99.4%194.2%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    —
    —
  • ROIC
    —
    —
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    1.7%
    0.6%9.0%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    14.3%
    9.8%97.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-24 data

Company Overview

The Hartford Insurance Group operates through three main engines: Business Insurance, Personal Insurance, and Employee Benefits, alongside an investment portfolio that supports the group's income. In Business Insurance, the company combines Small Commercial, Middle & Large Commercial, and Global Specialty; in Personal Insurance, it underwrites auto and homeowners insurance through agencies, the direct channel, and its AARP relationship, while Employee Benefits generates revenue from life, disability, and family and medical leave coverages.

In Q2 fiscal 2026, revenue according to EDGAR filings was approximately $7.3 billion, net income was $1.3 billion, and earnings per share were $4.68. On the core earnings basis presented by management, the company generated $945 million, or $3.42 per diluted share, and core earnings return on equity was 18.7% for the twelve months ended that quarter; book value per share excluding accumulated other comprehensive income also rose to $78.91, up 15% year over year.

Business Insurance led operating performance with core earnings of $605 million, 5% growth in written premiums, and an 89.3% underlying combined ratio. Personal Insurance generated $128 million in core earnings and an 86.3% underlying combined ratio despite a 7% decline in written premiums, while Employee Benefits recorded $139 million in core earnings and a 7.4% margin. Net investment income also reached $800 million, up 22% from Q2 fiscal 2025, illustrating the combined contribution of underwriting and investments to the group's profitability.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Small Commercial achieved 7% growth in written premiums and an 86.5% underlying combined ratio in Q2 fiscal 2026, supported by double-digit increases in insurance packages and E&S coverage attachments, while benefiting from automation and digital service to improve the speed and accuracy of pricing.
  • Business Insurance renewal pricing, excluding workers' compensation, was 5.8% in Q2 fiscal 2026; the increase in general liability reached 9.9%, and umbrella and excess coverage increases remained in the low double digits, supporting the company's ability to keep pace with liability loss trends.
  • The Personal Insurance underlying combined ratio improved by 1.7 points year over year to 86.3%, while the auto insurance ratio improved by 1.9 points as earned pricing exceeded loss trends. Following the July 2026 rollout, the contemporary agency-channel product became available in 23 states, while the agency business grew 7% year over year.
  • Net investment income in Q2 fiscal 2026 increased by $142 million to $800 million, with an annualized pre-tax yield of 4.7% for the portfolio excluding limited partnerships and a 7.6% yield for limited partnerships. Management expects net investment income to continue growing in fiscal 2026, supported by higher invested assets, while total portfolio yields remain generally near fiscal 2025 levels.
  • In July 2026, the board approved a new $4.2 billion share repurchase authorization through December 2028, in addition to approximately $650 million remaining under the previous authorization at the end of June 2026. After repurchasing 3.4 million shares for $450 million during the quarter, management expects to raise quarterly purchases to $475 million for the remainder of fiscal 2026, benefiting in part from the expected cash proceeds from the sale of Hartford Funds to Wellington Management.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The underwriting ratios in Q2 fiscal 2026 demonstrate strong earnings quality, with an 89.3% underlying combined ratio in Business Insurance, 86.5% in Small Commercial, and 85.8% in Global Specialty, all below the 100% level that indicates an underwriting profit.
  • +The earnings model combines underwriting and investment income; the company generated $945 million in core earnings and an 18.7% core earnings return on equity, alongside 22% growth in net investment income to $800 million.
  • +Small Commercial represents a distinct growth driver, with written premiums increasing 7% and double-digit growth in insurance packages and E&S coverage attachments, while management said automation and digital service tools improve pricing speed, ease, and accuracy for brokers.
  • +The $4.2 billion share repurchase authorization provides a clear channel for returning capital through December 2028, supported by capital generation from operations and expected cash proceeds from the Hartford Funds transaction, while organic investment in products and capabilities remains a management priority.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus is "Buy," with an average target of $151.33 and a narrow range between $146 and $154. The average target and highest target are above the 52-week high of $146.07, but the lowest target nearly matches it; therefore, the valuation reflects optimism that underwriting profitability and share repurchases will continue, with clear sensitivity to liability reserve pressures and the decline in Personal Insurance. No usable price-to-earnings multiple was provided, so a reliable comparison based on it cannot be made from the available data.

BuyAnalyst target: $151.33(+11.0%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove HIG's earnings in Q2 fiscal 2026?

Net income according to EDGAR was approximately $1.3 billion and earnings per share were $4.68, while core earnings were $945 million, or $3.42 per diluted share. Business Insurance generated $605 million in core earnings, Personal Insurance added $128 million, and Employee Benefits added $139 million. Net investment income also rose 22% year over year to $800 million, supporting an 18.7% core earnings return on equity for the twelve months ended that quarter.

Why is Small Commercial important to HIG?

Small Commercial grew written premiums by 7% during Q2 fiscal 2026, with a strong underlying combined ratio of 86.5%. Growth came from double-digit increases in insurance packages and E&S coverage attachments. The Hartford uses automation and digital services to accelerate pricing and improve its ease and accuracy, capabilities that management said are viewed positively by retail and wholesale brokers.

What are the main risks in HIG's insurance reserves?

The company increased prior-year general liability reserves by $46 million in Q2 fiscal 2026 due to elevated activity in certain large losses, particularly in excess and umbrella coverages and across several accident years. In commercial auto, adverse developments emerged in the 2023 and 2024 accident years due to severity exceeding previous estimates, increased attorney representation, and time-limit demands. By contrast, workers' compensation, catastrophe, bond, and Personal Insurance reserves continued to show favorable prior-year development.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Liability reserves face pressure from an increased frequency of large losses in excess and umbrella coverages and greater commercial auto liability loss severity; in Q2 fiscal 2026, the company increased prior-year general liability reserves by approximately $46 million and linked commercial auto developments to increased attorney representation and time-limit demands.
  • −Personal Insurance written premiums declined 7% in Q2 fiscal 2026, including a 10% drop in auto and flat homeowners premiums, amid heightened competition for new business and expected pressure in the direct channel heading into fiscal 2027. The segment's expense ratio also rose to 26.3% from 25.1% a year earlier, and management said achieving the fiscal 2027 year-end expense target in this segment had become more difficult.
  • −Competition intensified in Middle & Large Commercial during Q2 fiscal 2026, particularly in general liability and workers' compensation, and management stated that continued pressure would limit growth in the second half of fiscal 2026. Middle market renewal pricing excluding workers' compensation declined by 130 basis points from the previous quarter to 4.4%, while the shared and layered large property book shrank to less than $25 million because price declines accelerated below the company's return thresholds.
  • −The group disability loss ratio rose to 74.8% in Q2 fiscal 2026, up 6.3 points year over year, due to increased claim incidence in short- and long-term disability. Behavioral health claims and paid family and medical leave utilization also increased, including in states where the programs have operated for several years, which may require additional price increases to maintain the targeted Employee Benefits margin of between 6% and 7%.
  • −Investment results remain exposed to economic and geopolitical volatility, particularly limited partnership returns, which reached an annualized pre-tax rate of 7.6% and benefited in Q2 fiscal 2026 from sales of joint-venture real estate projects and the performance of infrastructure and energy transition funds. Management noted that geopolitical and economic volatility could alter these results during the second half of fiscal 2026.
  • −The average analyst target of $151.33 places the stock above the 52-week high of $146.07, while the lowest target is $146, very close to that historical threshold. This concentration of most of the target range near the top of the 52-week range reduces the margin of safety if premium growth slows or reserve and competitive pressures increase.
  • Is Personal Insurance improving at The Hartford?

    The Personal Insurance underlying combined ratio improved by 1.7 points year over year to 86.3% in Q2 fiscal 2026, while the auto ratio improved by 1.9 points as earned pricing exceeded loss trends. However, written premiums declined 7%, with auto down 10% and homeowners flat, while the expense ratio rose to 26.3%. In July 2026, the contemporary agency-channel product became available in 23 states, and the agency business recorded 7% year-over-year growth despite continued competitive pressure on the direct channel.

    What do the Hartford Funds transaction and repurchase plan mean for HIG shareholders?

    The Hartford agreed to sell Hartford Funds to Wellington Management as a non-core long-term investment, with a structure that allows it to participate in some of the value of the combined entity. In July 2026, the board approved a new $4.2 billion share repurchase authorization through December 2028, in addition to approximately $650 million remaining from the previous authorization as of June 30, 2026. The company repurchased 3.4 million shares for $450 million during the quarter and expects to raise quarterly purchases to $475 million for the remainder of fiscal 2026.

    What is the outlook for HIG's investments and Employee Benefits?

    Net investment income was $800 million in Q2 fiscal 2026, and the annualized pre-tax portfolio yield excluding limited partnerships was 4.7%. Management expects net investment income to grow during fiscal 2026, with total yields remaining generally near fiscal 2025 levels, while results may be affected by economic and geopolitical volatility. Employee Benefits recorded a 7.4% core earnings margin and $139 million in core earnings, but the group disability loss ratio rose 6.3 points year over year to 74.8% due to increased claim incidence.