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Stocks
Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.
HHH

HHH Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.

Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
61.55
▼ ⁦-0.13%⁩ (-0.08)
Market Cap$3.7B
Beta1.14
52w Low52w High
61.0191.07
Last Week
⁦-2.58%⁩
Last Month
⁦-6.10%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-2.96%⁩
Last Year
⁦-17.71%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall35
Weak — below market medianContrarianF 5/9DistressBetter than 35% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
76
12.2x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
70
34.0%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
53
4.5%4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
42
4.0x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
20
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
24
-11.5%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
32
2▼3Bottom tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$62
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$88
⁦+42%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$80–$95⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$117
⁦+91%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦9.4⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$88–$117⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$87.50
⁦+42.2%⁩
Current Price $61.55·Median $87.50
Low
$80.00
High
$95.00
Current price
$61.55
Average target
$87.50
Street summary

Price Forecast Analysis for Howard Hughes (HHH)

The price forecast analysis for Howard Hughes stock shows a state of complete stability in analyst targets over the (1, 7, 30-day) periods, with the average target price stabilizing at 87.5 dollars. However, the data reflects weak analyst coverage for the stock (only one analyst), which increases concentration risk and reduces the reliability of the arithmetic mean as a statistical benchmark for the market as a whole.

As of 2026-05-22
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.00
Buy
Analyst coverage
3
Buy conviction
67%
High
Target dispersion
24%
Analyst ratings over time3 analysts rating
1
1
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.00 → 4.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2025-10-01
    Piper Sandler
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2024-06-03
    Jefferies
    Buy· $80.00
  • = Reiterate2024-05-24
    Piper Sandler
    Overweight· $95.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    12.21x
    5.03x40.26x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    23.58x
    5.89x47.13x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    9.31x
    3.68x29.40x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    20.8%
    -23.1%16.7%
    Exceptional
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    34.0%
    -14.0%37.7%
    Strong
  • EPS Growth YoY
    9.6%
    -121.8%181.8%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    17.4%
    -5.0%81.8%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    4.5%
    -4.2%9.5%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    3.95x
    1.55x12.39x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    0.70
    -0.883.10
    Near median
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-06 data

Company Overview

Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. is a holding company combining real estate development and specialty insurance. The real estate business generates cash from land sales within master-planned communities, condominium deliveries, and leasing operating assets, then recycles capital through selected asset sales or the introduction of partners; in Q2 FY2026, master-planned community earnings before taxes rose 32% year over year to $134.7 million, while the delivery of Park Ward Village generated approximately $227 million in net proceeds after repaying the construction loan.

The acquisition of Vantage Holdings added specialty insurance and reinsurance operations, but the consolidated results for Q2 FY2026 included Vantage only from the transaction's closing date on June 4, 2026, through June 30, 2026. Based on Vantage's historical results for the full quarter, gross and net written premiums rose 29% to $473 million and $325 million, respectively, while net earned premiums increased 22% to $295 million; Howard Hughes' business mix now combines real estate cash flows with underwriting earnings and returns from the insurance investment portfolio.

Howard Hughes recorded Q2 FY2026 revenue of $1.1 billion, net income of $158.4 million, and earnings per share of $2.68, compared with revenue of $235.9 million, net income of $8.2 million, and earnings per share of $0.14 in Q1 FY2026. The provided data does not include a gross profit figure or a consolidated margin, while revenue for the twelve months ended in FY2026 was approximately $1.5 billion and net income was $121.3 million.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The closing of the Vantage transaction on June 4, 2026, changes the nature of Howard Hughes from a pure real estate company into a diversified holding company; $300 million of capital was added to Vantage, while its net income in the first half of FY2026 was approximately $86 million, up 94%, and underwriting income was $23 million, nearly double the comparable period.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • The underlying insurance operations improved despite quarterly volatility, as the current accident year combined ratio excluding catastrophes declined to 91.4% in Q2 FY2026 from 96.2% a year earlier, and to 90.9% in the first half of FY2026 from 94.6%. AM Best also affirmed Vantage's A- rating and upgraded the outlook to positive.
  • The master-planned communities continue converting land scarcity into profits; new home sales rose 12% in Q2 FY2026, including growth of 34% in The Woodlands Hills and 17% in Bridgeland, while the estimated remaining margin value of the wholly owned land bank was approximately $5.6 billion, excluding opportunities at Teravalis and Floreo.
  • The condominium segment provides relatively clear visibility into future cash flows, as expected revenue from the project pipeline exceeds $4 billion and approximately 78% of it was under contract as of August 6, 2026. Park Ward Village demonstrated the segment's ability to convert years of development into liquidity, generating approximately $227 million in net proceeds after repaying the construction loan in Q2 FY2026.
  • The company reshaped Vantage's approximately $3.4 billion investment portfolio; as of June 30, 2026, more than 60% was allocated to short-term U.S. Treasury securities, while public equities totaled approximately $1.1 billion, or nearly one-third, before the equity allocation increased to approximately 40% during the following five weeks, according to the August 6, 2026 call. Management aims to keep insurance reserves covered by short-term bonds while directing excess capital toward the equities of large, high-quality public companies.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The real estate business has tangible sources of capital generation, including an estimated remaining land bank margin value of $5.6 billion and more than $4 billion in expected condominium revenue, 78% of which was under contract as of August 6, 2026.
    • +Vantage delivered strong growth in the first half of FY2026, with net income increasing 94% to $86 million and the underlying underwriting metric improving, while its 0.7 ratio of net written premiums to surplus reflects a conservative capital base relative to premium volume.
    • +Asset recycling has demonstrated its ability to release liquidity at high returns; the sale of Creekside Park and Creekside Park The Grove generated approximately $30 million in net proceeds after debt repayment, with a project-level internal rate of return of approximately 30% over the investment period.
    • +Management expects the company to generate between $2.5 billion and $3 billion of excess free cash flow during the five years following the August 6, 2026 call, prioritizing the allocation of every additional dollar toward expanding Vantage and benefiting from both underwriting and investing.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Vantage's quarterly profitability came under clear pressure, as the combined ratio increased to 101.6% in Q2 FY2026 from 94% a year earlier; the results included $18 million in catastrophe losses related to the conflict in Iran and $19 million in adverse prior-year reserve development, with a total impact of 10.2 percentage points on the combined ratio.
    • −Insurance competition is increasing as most of the property and casualty market moves into the third stage of the cycle and some property and short-tail lines enter the fourth stage; management explained on August 6, 2026, that pricing had declined from its peak and competition had increased, which could pressure pricing and underwriting margins even as selective opportunities remain.
    • −The planned shift of Vantage's portfolio toward public equities increases the results' exposure to market volatility; the equity portfolio declined approximately 3% while it was being built through June 30, 2026, and its allocation had increased to approximately 40% by the August 6, 2026 call, with a target of at least 50% over time.
    • −Adjusted free cash flow after maintenance for operating assets declined modestly in Q2 FY2026 because of leasing expenditures and higher interest expense, highlighting the sensitivity of real estate cash flows to financing costs before targeted occupancy returns are realized.
    • −Revenue from land sales and condominium deliveries remains uneven across periods; management described land sales as irregular, while approximately $227 million in net proceeds from Park Ward Village was received as a single amount in Q2 FY2026, so the elevated quarterly profit level should not be extrapolated automatically.
    • −Insider activity recorded one sale and no purchases during the three months ended with the latest transaction on August 11, 2026, representing net sales of approximately $907.6 thousand. This is a weak trading signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged, and the provided information does not identify the transaction's motives.

    Valuation

    The average analyst price target is $87.5, within a range of $80 to $95, compared with a 52-week share-price range of $61.01 to $91.07; this means the average target is below the top of the range, while the highest target exceeds that peak. The consensus rates the stock a “Buy,” but the absence of a published price-to-earnings ratio in the provided data makes the company's valuation more dependent on the value of its real estate assets, Vantage's profitability, and the sustainability of intermittent cash flows rather than a direct traditional earnings comparison.

    BuyAnalyst target: $87.5(+42.2%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What changed Howard Hughes Holdings' business model in FY2026?

    Howard Hughes closed the acquisition of Vantage Holdings on June 4, 2026, transforming it from a pure real estate company into a holding company combining real estate and specialty insurance. The consolidated results for Q2 FY2026 included Vantage's operations only for the period from June 4 through June 30. According to the August 6, 2026 call, the company aims to increase the weight of insurance over time while recycling capital generated from land, condominiums, and non-core assets.

    How did Vantage perform in Q2 FY2026?

    Gross written premiums rose 29% to $473 million, net written premiums increased 29% to $325 million, and net earned premiums grew 22% to $295 million. The combined ratio was 101.6% because of $18 million in catastrophe losses and $19 million in adverse prior-year reserve development. In contrast, the current accident year combined ratio excluding catastrophes improved to 91.4% from 96.2% a year earlier, indicating improvement in underlying underwriting despite the quarterly underwriting loss.

    How large is Howard Hughes' condominium project pipeline?

    Expected future revenue from the condominium pipeline exceeded $4 billion, according to the August 6, 2026 call. Approximately 78% of this amount was under contract, giving the company better visibility into future delivery proceeds. In Q2 FY2026, the completion of Park Ward Village generated approximately $227 million in net proceeds after repaying the construction loan.

    What supports the value of Howard Hughes' master-planned communities?

    Master-planned community earnings before taxes rose 32% year over year to $134.7 million in Q2 FY2026. New home sales also increased 12%, including 34% in The Woodlands Hills and 17% in Bridgeland. Management estimated the remaining margin value of the wholly owned land bank at approximately $5.6 billion, excluding future opportunities at Teravalis and Floreo.

    How does Howard Hughes invest Vantage's financial assets?

    Vantage's investment portfolio totaled approximately $3.4 billion at the transaction's closing and was initially allocated to fixed-income securities. By June 30, 2026, more than 60% was allocated to short-term U.S. Treasury securities, while public equities totaled approximately $1.1 billion, or nearly one-third, before the equity allocation increased to approximately 40%, according to the August 6, 2026 call. The plan is to cover net insurance reserves with short-term Treasury securities plus a margin of safety, then invest the balance in large public equities, targeting an equity allocation of at least 50% over time.

    What are the main risks to HHH stock after adding Vantage?

    Vantage's combined ratio was approximately 101.6% in Q2 FY2026, reflecting the impact of catastrophe losses and prior reserve development, while management said competition had increased and pricing had declined from its peak in parts of the insurance market. Increasing the portfolio's public equity allocation to approximately 40% by the August 6, 2026 call also raises investment-result volatility, and the equity portfolio declined 3% while it was being built through June 30, 2026. In real estate, land sales and condominium deliveries remain intermittent, while adjusted free cash flow after maintenance for operating assets declined modestly because of leasing expenditures and higher interest expense.,