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Stocks
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.
HGV

HGV Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
39.47
▲ ⁦+0.69%⁩ (+0.27)
Market Cap$3.1B
Beta1.52
52w Low52w High
36.7955.40
Last Week
⁦-6.40%⁩
Last Month
⁦-15.01%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-24.18%⁩
Last Year
⁦-16.94%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall70
Strong — clearly above market medianContrarianF 8/9DistressBetter than 70% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
86
22.6x▼17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
67
5.4%▼7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
86
9.5%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
33
5.6x▼2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
63
—2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
35
-1.4%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
43
7▲3Around median
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$39
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$50
⁦+27%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$46–$74⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$4.67
⁦-88%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦11.2⁩% discount · ⁦3⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$4.67–$50⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$55.29
⁦+40.1%⁩
Current Price $39.47·Median $50.00
Low
$46.00
High
$74.00
Current price
$39.47
Average target
$55.29
Street summary

A slight rise in consensus with clear divergence among analysts

Bullish tilt

The consensus price target rose to 55.29 from 53 seven days ago, an increase of 2.29, and to 55.29 from 53.8 over the last 30 days, while remaining unchanged over the last day. The number of analysts also increased from two to three in the weekly comparison. With a current price of 39.47, the available targets indicate an upside outlook, but their wide range between 46 and 74 and median average of 50 reflect notable divergence.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+2.8%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.45
Hold
Analyst coverage
11
Buy conviction
36%
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
71%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time11 analysts rating
1
3
7
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.40 → 3.45
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-04
    Citigroup
    Market Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-18
    Susquehanna
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-07-31
    Goldman Sachs
    Neutral
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    22.55x
    5.03x40.26x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    7.38x
    5.89x47.13x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    9.52x
    3.68x29.40x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    13.5%
    -23.1%16.7%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    5.4%
    -14.0%37.7%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    218.2%
    -121.8%181.8%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    63.3%
    -5.0%81.8%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    9.5%
    -4.2%9.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    5.60x
    1.55x12.39x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    0.93
    -0.883.10
    Near median
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-30 data

Company Overview

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. develops, markets, and sells vacation ownership interests, then generates additional revenue from financing customer purchases, managing resorts and clubs, rentals and ancillary services, and licensing fees. In Q2 FY2026, real estate contract sales totaled $810 million, the financing business generated $144 million in revenue, resorts and clubs recorded $189 million, and rental and ancillary services revenue reached $210 million.

According to EDGAR filings, the company recorded revenue of $1.4 billion, net income of $12 million, and earnings per share of $0.15 in Q2 FY2026. For the twelve months ended in FY2026, revenue totaled $5.7 billion, net income was $151 million, and earnings per share were approximately $1.87, compared with revenue of $5.0 billion and net income of $81 million in FY2025.

In the Q2 FY2026 earnings presentation, revenue before cost reimbursements totaled $1.3 billion, up 3%, and adjusted EBITDA attributable to shareholders increased 5% to $293 million. The margin for this measure expanded by 40 basis points to 23%, while real estate segment profit rose 7% to $173 million at a 28% margin, the adjusted financing margin reached 62%, and the resorts and clubs margin reached 68%. The reported results do not reflect $54 million of deferred contract sales under ASC 606, along with $26 million of related deferred direct expenses.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Hilton Grand Vacations increased tours by 6% to 239 thousand tours in Q2 FY2026, marking a fourth consecutive quarter of tour growth, while new-buyer tours grew at a high-single-digit rate and their transactions increased at approximately the same rate.
  • HGV Max membership reached approximately 300 thousand members, or 40% of the membership base, in Q2 FY2026 after 24% annual growth; at Bluegreen, membership growth exceeded 100%, bringing the total close to 22 thousand members.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • HGV Ultimate Access hosted more than 137 thousand guests during the year ended in Q2 FY2026, and management linked the platform to strong contract sales, positive satisfaction scores, and upgrade sales, while adding tools that give members greater flexibility in accessing experiences.
  • The company repurchased 3.1 million shares for $150 million during Q2 FY2026, followed by an additional 488 thousand shares for $25 million between July 1 and 23, 2026; repurchases since the beginning of FY2026 exceeded $300 million and represented more than 10% of the free float at the beginning of the year.
  • Management maintained its FY2026 guidance for adjusted EBITDA before the impact of deferrals at between $1.225 billion and $1.265 billion, supported by cost discipline and expected execution improvements. The disposal of non-core assets is also expected to reduce the burden of maintenance fees on this measure by a recurring annual amount of between $10 million and $12 million, with a limited impact in FY2026 due to the timing of fee payments.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The business model demonstrated an ability to protect profitability despite weaker sales; contract sales declined 3% in Q2 FY2026, but real estate segment profit rose 7% and its margin expanded by 220 basis points to 28%.
    • +The growing customer base provides potential future value; new buyers accounted for 28% of contract sales volume, up 70 basis points, while HGV Max membership rose to approximately 300 thousand members, expanding opportunities for upgrades and recurring revenue within the company's ecosystem.
    • +The business generated adjusted free cash flow of $180 million in Q2 FY2026, equivalent to 61% of adjusted EBITDA, a ratio within the long-term range of 55% to 65%.
    • +The Elara acquisition closed on April 30, 2026, and its performance through the July 30, 2026 call was in line with or slightly above management's expectations; management estimated its contribution at approximately $20 million in FY2026, with an annualized level of between $25 million and $30 million in FY2027.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Sales productivity declined in Q2 FY2026; contract sales decreased 3% to $810 million, and volume per guest fell 9% to approximately $3,400, due to moderating Bluegreen performance following the launch of HGV Max, execution issues in Orlando and Myrtle Beach, and a higher mix of trust transactions and new buyers.
    • −Management lowered its operating expectations for FY2026 and now expects volume per guest to decline at a low- to mid-single-digit rate instead of remaining stable or declining slightly, while it now expects contract sales to remain flat or decline slightly instead of growing modestly. For Q3 FY2026, it expects volume per guest to decline at a high-single-digit rate and contract sales to fall at a mid-single-digit rate.
    • −The credit loss provision increased to 17% of owned contract sales in Q2 FY2026, while the total allowance for doubtful accounts remained substantial at $1.4 billion, or 28% of a $5 billion gross receivables portfolio. Management attributed the quarterly increase to a higher propensity to finance and the mix of trust transactions and new buyers, while emphasizing that early-stage delinquency indicators remained stable.
    • −The company carries a high financing burden; as of June 30, 2026, corporate debt totaled $4.9 billion and non-recourse debt was approximately $2.9 billion, while net leverage reached 3.8 times. Liquidity was only $735 million, consisting of $272 million in unrestricted cash and $463 million available under the revolving credit facility.
    • −The rental and ancillary services business recorded a loss of $10 million in Q2 FY2026 due to developer maintenance fees, while the disposal of non-core assets on June 30, 2026 resulted in a non-cash loss of $48 million. Any future share of the proceeds from the sale of those properties remains undetermined because the timing and value depend on a sale process conducted by a third party.
    • −The neutral analyst consensus reflects a wide divergence in valuation estimates, with price targets ranging from $46 to $74 around an average of $53. Insider transactions also indicated net selling of approximately $970,408 during the three months ended with the latest transaction on August 6, 2026, although a single sale remains a weak signal and may have been prearranged unless the context proves otherwise.

    Valuation

    The average analyst price target is $53, compared with a high target of $74 and a low target of $46, while the consensus rates the stock Neutral. The average target is approximately 4% below the 52-week range high of $55.40, while the breadth of the target range reflects meaningful disagreement over the impact of weakness in contract sales and volume per guest versus stable earnings and cash flow guidance.

    HoldAnalyst target: $53(+34.3%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What were HGV's key results in Q2 FY2026?

    According to EDGAR, Hilton Grand Vacations recorded revenue of $1.4 billion, net income of $12 million, and earnings per share of $0.15. In management's presentation, revenue before cost reimbursements totaled $1.3 billion, up 3% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA attributable to shareholders increased 5% to $293 million, with the margin expanding to 23%.

    Why did HGV contract sales decline despite tour growth?

    Tours increased 6% to 239 thousand in Q2 FY2026, but contract sales declined 3% to $810 million. Volume per guest fell 9% to approximately $3,400 due to a moderating comparison with the launch of HGV Max at Bluegreen, execution issues in Orlando and Myrtle Beach, and a higher mix of trust transactions and new buyers. Management confirmed on July 30, 2026 that occupancy and tours remained strong and that the weakness was execution-related rather than the result of declining demand.

    What is Hilton Grand Vacations' guidance for FY2026?

    Management reiterated FY2026 guidance for adjusted EBITDA before deferrals of between $1.225 billion and $1.265 billion. It expects low- to mid-single-digit growth in tours, compared with a low- to mid-single-digit decline in volume per guest. It also expects contract sales to be flat or slightly lower, after its previous estimate indicated modest growth.

    How do HGV Max and Ultimate Access affect HGV's growth?

    HGV Max membership reached approximately 300 thousand members, or 40% of the customer base, in Q2 FY2026 after 24% annual growth. At Bluegreen, membership more than doubled to nearly 22 thousand members, while new-buyer transactions there increased 16%. HGV Ultimate Access hosted more than 137 thousand guests during the year ended in Q2 FY2026, and management said it supported member satisfaction, contract sales, and upgrades.

    Does the customer financing portfolio pose a risk to HGV?

    Gross financing receivables totaled $5 billion in Q2 FY2026, compared with an allowance for doubtful accounts of $1.4 billion, or 28% of the portfolio. The quarterly credit loss provision was 17% of owned contract sales, at the high end of management's mid-teens range. Nevertheless, management said on July 30, 2026 that delinquency indicators between 31 and 90 days had improved by nine basis points since year-end and that the Diamond and Bluegreen portfolios had improved both year over year and sequentially.

    What is HGV's share repurchase policy in FY2026?

    The company repurchased 3.1 million shares for $150 million in Q2 FY2026. Between July 1 and 23, 2026, it purchased an additional 488 thousand shares for $25 million, with $103 million remaining available under the authorization on July 23, 2026. Management is targeting a pace of approximately $150 million per quarter, provided the repurchases do not increase net leverage during FY2026.