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Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.
HG

HG Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.

Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. · NYSE
Market Closed
34.85
▼ ⁦-0.14%⁩ (-0.05)
Market Cap$3.5B
Beta0.44
52w Low52w High
22.6637.31
Last Week
⁦-0.57%⁩
Last Month
⁦-1.97%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+13.85%⁩
Last Year
⁦+48.55%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall98
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 7/9Better than 98% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
95
2.7x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
87
15.5%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
98
——Top tier
▸
Safety
34
——Bottom tier
▸
Capital Return
68
—2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
88
46.1%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
36
4▲3Bottom tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$35
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$37
⁦+6%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$33–$39⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$187
⁦+435%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦5⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$37–$187⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$36.33
⁦+4.2%⁩
Current Price $34.85·Median $37.00
Low
$33.00
High
$39.00
Current price
$34.85
Average target
$36.33
Street summary

Limited Increase in the Price Target Amid Reduced Coverage

The consensus price target rose over the last 30 days from 35.33 to 36.33, an increase of 2.83%, while remaining unchanged over the last 7 days. The current price stands at 34.37 versus a target range of 33 to 39, indicating potential upside based on the average and upper bound, although the lower bound is below the current price. The number of analysts included in the consensus also declined from two to one over the last day, reducing the strength of the consensus signal.

As of 2026-09-09
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+2.8%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.00
Buy
Analyst coverage
7
Buy conviction
57%
Mixed
Target dispersion
17%
Analyst ratings over time7 analysts rating
3
1
3
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.00 → 4.00
Recent analyst moves
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    Outperform
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Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    2.66x
    3.16x25.26x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    7.27x
    2.76x22.06x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • FCF Yield
    —
    —
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    15.5%
    -36.3%104.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    57.6%
    -99.4%194.2%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    —
    —
  • ROIC
    —
    —
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-07 data

Company Overview

Hamilton Insurance Group operates through specialty insurance and reinsurance, and manages two operating segments, International and Bermuda, and three underwriting platforms, Hamilton Global Specialty, Hamilton Select, and Hamilton Re. The International segment comprises specialty insurance operations through Hamilton Global Specialty and Hamilton Select, while the Bermuda segment focuses on reinsurance through Hamilton Re. Earnings come from underwriting results and returns on an investment portfolio that totaled $6.1 billion as of June 30, 2026.

According to EDGAR data, the company recorded fiscal Q2 2026 revenue of $839.6 million, net income of $254.8 million, and earnings per share of $1.42, equivalent to a calculated net income margin of approximately 30.3%. For the twelve months ended in 2026, revenue totaled $3.0 billion, net income was $862.8 million, and earnings per share were approximately $8.54, compared with revenue of $2.9 billion, net income of $840.0 million, and earnings per share of $5.55 in fiscal 2025.

Gross premiums written in fiscal Q2 2026 totaled approximately $420 million in the International segment and $411 million in the Bermuda segment, representing a nearly balanced mix of approximately 51% and 49%, respectively, of the two-segment total. International segment premiums increased 22%, supported by specialty and casualty business, while Bermuda premiums grew 12%, supported by casualty reinsurance. Conversely, the company reduced its exposure to certain large commercial property insurance and property reinsurance business when pricing did not meet required return thresholds.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Group gross premiums written increased 17% in fiscal Q2 2026, and first-half growth reached 14%, with premiums of $1.8 billion compared with $1.6 billion in the corresponding period. Management maintained its low-double-digit growth outlook for full-year fiscal 2026.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Investment income totaled $141 million in fiscal Q2 2026, including $115 million at a 5.1% return from Two Sigma Hamilton Fund, compared with $87 million and a 4.4% return in the corresponding quarter. The fixed-income portfolio’s average yield to maturity also reached 4.7%, compared with 4.1% at the end of fiscal 2025.
  • Hamilton Select grew by more than 18% in fiscal Q2 2026, and its AM Best rating upgrade to A in May 2026 supported its expansion from hard-to-place accounts into lower-middle-market risks in the U.S. specialty insurance market. The platform began offering a property product in April 2026 and identified life sciences as the next class, while management expects the expansion strategy’s greatest impact to emerge in 2027.
  • International segment premiums increased 22% to $420 million, driven by 22% growth at Hamilton Global Specialty and growth at Hamilton Select, while Bermuda premiums increased 12% to $411 million due to casualty reinsurance and gains in aviation reinsurance.
  • Hamilton uses artificial intelligence for insurance submission intake and data extraction, and it also applies intelligent ranking technology at Hamilton Select to move risks with the highest probability of being bound to the top of the underwriter’s queue. Management believes this could generate measurable productivity gains, provided the operating benefits exceed the technology’s cost.
  • The company repurchased $22 million of shares in fiscal Q2 2026, bringing total purchases for the year to $42 million, with $137 million remaining under the existing authorization. Distribution-adjusted book value was $30.91 per share as of June 30, 2026, up 8.5% from the end of fiscal 2025.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +Hamilton’s model combines premium growth with pricing discipline. Premiums grew 14% in the first half of fiscal 2026, while the company withdrew from certain property business that did not meet return thresholds instead of pursuing volume at the expense of profitability.
    • +The diversity of the three platforms and two segments provides flexibility in allocating capital, as growth in casualty and specialty offset declines in certain property business. Middle East losses also created opportunities with improved pricing and terms in marine and political violence insurance, without the company announcing an undisciplined expansion of exposure.
    • +The investment portfolio contributed strongly to results, as Two Sigma Hamilton Fund generated a net gain of $115 million and a 5.1% return in fiscal Q2 2026, alongside an increase in the fixed-income portfolio’s average yield to maturity to 4.7%.
    • +Capital supports the investment case. Shareholders’ equity totaled $2.9 billion and total assets were $10.3 billion as of June 30, 2026, with $42 million of share repurchases during the year and $137 million remaining under the authorization.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Underwriting results remain exposed to catastrophe and conflict losses. Hamilton incurred $50 million of catastrophe losses in fiscal Q2 2026, including $46 million related to the Middle East conflict, raising the combined ratio to 95.0% from 86.8% in the corresponding quarter and reducing underwriting income to $29 million from $67 million.
    • −Property business faces clear competitive pricing pressure, which led to lower property reinsurance premiums and reduced underwriting of large commercial property insurance in both the International and Bermuda segments. Management explained that continued abundant capacity in the absence of major losses could place further pressure on property pricing.
    • −A negative reserve signal emerged in certain Bermuda casualty business, as the company recorded $16 million of reserve strengthening following its periodic review, including approximately $5 million related to additional information about a 2018 loss and the remainder primarily from the 2022 accident years. Prior-year loss development in the segment also had a negative impact of 4.6 points, although the strengthening represents only approximately 0.8% of net casualty reserves.
    • −The pace of growth is slowing from the company’s previous record. Management expects low-double-digit growth in fiscal 2026 after a compound annual growth rate exceeding 22% over the previous five years. It also explained that the expansion of Hamilton Select will not add significant growth during 2026 because the hiring of team leaders and underwriters is still underway, with a clearer impact expected in 2027.
    • −A significant portion of profitability depends on volatile investment performance. Two Sigma Hamilton Fund represented approximately 39% of total investments and cash as of June 30, 2026, and contributed $115 million of the $141 million in quarterly investment income. Therefore, weaker fund returns could lead to a meaningful decline in earnings even if underwriting remains stable.
    • −

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus is Buy, with an average price target of $36.33 and a target range of $33 to $39. The average is only a limited distance from the top of the 52-week range of $37.31, while the highest target exceeds that peak. No published price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data, so the valuation should be viewed in light of the volatility of Two Sigma Hamilton Fund income, the increase in the combined ratio to 95.0%, and, in contrast, the 8.5% growth in distribution-adjusted book value to $30.91 per share as of June 30, 2026.

    BuyAnalyst target: $36.33(+4.2%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What is driving HG’s earnings in fiscal Q2 2026?

    Earnings came from a combination of underwriting and investment results, as EDGAR data recorded revenue of $839.6 million, net income of $254.8 million, and earnings per share of $1.42. Investment income totaled $141 million, with Two Sigma Hamilton Fund alone contributing a net gain of $115 million and a 5.1% return. In underwriting, the company generated income of $29 million despite catastrophe losses of $50 million. The combined ratio was 95.0%, compared with 86.8% in fiscal Q2 2025.

    How is Hamilton Select growing, and why is the AM Best rating important for HG shares?

    Hamilton Select grew by more than 18% in fiscal Q2 2026, supported by excess casualty, excess property, and contractor products. AM Best upgraded the platform’s rating from A- to A in May 2026, enhancing its ability to access additional opportunities through brokerage partners. The platform expanded its scope from hard-to-place accounts into lower-middle-market risks and launched a property product in April 2026, with life sciences set to be the next class. Management said the greatest impact from the expansion is likely in 2027 because growth in 2026 will remain limited while underwriting teams are being built.

    What was the impact of Middle East losses on Hamilton Insurance’s results?

    The company recorded $50 million of catastrophe losses in fiscal Q2 2026, including $46 million related to the Middle East conflict. These losses represented 8.5 points of the group’s loss ratio and pushed the combined ratio to 95.0%. The International segment absorbed $34 million of catastrophe losses, while the Bermuda segment absorbed $16 million. Conversely, management said the losses improved pricing and terms in certain marine and political violence insurance classes, while the company continued to use external protection across the portfolio.

    Do casualty reserves represent a material risk for HG?

    Hamilton strengthened reserves for certain casualty lines by $16 million in fiscal Q2 2026 following its periodic internal review. Approximately $5 million came from additional information related to a 2018 loss, while most of the remainder related to the 2022 accident years. According to management, the strengthening equals approximately 0.8% of net casualty reserves and approximately 0.5% of total net reserves. Nevertheless, the Bermuda segment recorded 4.6 points of adverse prior-year loss development, making casualty claims trends and social and economic inflation important areas to monitor.

    What are Hamilton’s growth and underwriting margin targets for fiscal 2026?

    Management maintained its premium growth outlook at a low-double-digit level for full-year fiscal 2026, following 14% growth to $1.8 billion in the first half. It also maintained its attritional loss ratio outlook at 55% for the group, 54.5% for the International segment, and 56% for the Bermuda segment. Over the cycle, the company targets a combined ratio in the low-to-mid-90s range and a return on equity in the teens. These targets depend on underwriting selectivity and reducing business that does not meet return thresholds, particularly certain property lines.

    How does HG’s valuation look based on targets and book value?

    The average analyst target is $36.33, with a low target of $33 and a high target of $39, and a consensus rating of Buy. This compares with a 52-week range of $22.66 to $37.31, placing the average target near the top of that range. Book value was $28.91 per share as of June 30, 2026, or $30.91 after adjusting for distributions, up 8.5% from the end of fiscal 2025. No published price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data, so the stock’s valuation is closely tied to the sustainability of investment returns and maintaining a combined ratio within the target range.

    The valuation carries wide dispersion risk in analyst expectations, with targets ranging from $33 to $39 and an average target of $36.33, which is close to the upper end of the 52-week range of $37.31. The data also do not include a published price-to-earnings ratio that can be used to compare valuation with earnings, making the assessment more dependent on the sustainability of investment returns and underwriting quality.