| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 51 | 23.5x | 17.8x | Around median | |
Growth | 69 | 37.5% | 7.1% | Top tier | |
Quality | 50 | 9.2% | 4.5% | Around median | |
Safety | 76 | — | 2.6x | Top tier | |
Capital Return | 37 | 0.33% | 2.12% | Bottom tier | |
Momentum | 81 | 41.7% | 2.9% | Top tier | |
Sentiment | 37 | 6 | 3 | Bottom tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Warrior Met Coal produces steelmaking coal and sells it to global markets, with its sales in fiscal Q2 2026 distributed 50% to Asia, 35% to Europe, and 14% to South America. The sales mix consisted of 66% High-Vol A coal and 34% premium low-volatility coal, while spot sales accounted for only 13%; therefore, revenue is tied to shipment volumes, benchmark prices, product quality, destination, freight costs, and port delays.
In fiscal Q2 2026, revenue increased to $510 million from $298 million in the corresponding period of fiscal 2025, driven by sales volume reaching a record 3.7 million short tons, up 65%. Net income was $87 million and diluted earnings per share were $1.65, compared with $6 million and $0.11, respectively, while adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization rose 193% to $157 million and its margin expanded to 31% from 18%.
Fiscal Q2 2026 demonstrated Blue Creek's impact on the profitability structure, as cash cost of sales declined to $93 per ton from $101, and the cash margin increased 57% to $45 per ton. The company generated free cash flow of $103 million, from $132 million in operating cash flow and $29 million in capital expenditures, bringing available liquidity as of June 30, 2026, to $453 million, including $302 million in cash and cash equivalents.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The analyst consensus on HCC is neutral, with an average price target of $100, while the highest and lowest targets both match at $100, meaning there is no diverse range of estimates on which to rely. The uniform target is below the 52-week range high of $111.20 and above its low of $54.66, while the data does not include a valid price-to-earnings multiple; therefore, the valuation is primarily tied to the sustainability of Blue Creek's cash flows in the face of management's expectation of lower prices and margin pressure during the second half of fiscal 2026.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Warrior Met Coal's sales increased to 3.7 million short tons, up 65% from the corresponding period of fiscal 2025, supported by additional volumes from Blue Creek. The average net selling price increased 6% to $138 per ton, while cash cost declined 9% to $93 per ton. As a result, net income rose to $87 million and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased to $157 million, while its margin expanded from 18% to 31%.
Blue Creek represented the operational turning point in fiscal Q2 2026, contributing to a 45% increase in production to 3.3 million short tons and reducing the cost per ton. The company raised the project's fiscal 2026 sales guidance to 5 million short tons, an increase of 0.5 million tons, with 90% contracted as of August 5, 2026. Management aims to maximize mine production after equipping it to operate four continuous mining units and one longwall, but it did not set a new date for reaching the 6 million-ton rate.
Free cash flow reached $103 million in fiscal Q2 2026, compared with operating cash flow of $132 million and capital expenditures of $29 million. This brought free cash flow for the first half of fiscal 2026 to a positive $11 million. As of June 30, 2026, the company had available liquidity of $453 million, including $302 million in cash and cash equivalents, $10 million in short-term investments, and $141 million available under the ABL facility.
On August 5, 2026, management expected a lower-priced, range-bound market, with weak Chinese demand and steel margins and the possibility of improving premium Australian coal supply. In fiscal Q2 2026, overall price realization was only 66% compared with 80% in the corresponding period, while U.S. East Coast High-Vol A remained at a significant discount to the PLV index. The continuation of this gap, alongside higher freight and demurrage costs, could pressure the net selling price, profitability, and free cash flow.
50% of sales went to Asia, 35% to Europe, and 14% to South America, while spot sales accounted for 13%. The product mix consisted of 66% High-Vol A and 34% premium low-volatility coal. Pacific Basin sales accounted for 50%, but an approximately $13-per-ton year-over-year increase in freight to Asia reduced price realization.
The analyst consensus rates the stock as neutral, with a uniform target of $100, as the average, highest target, and lowest target are equal. This target is below the 52-week range high of $111.20 and above the low of $54.66, while the data does not provide a valid price-to-earnings multiple for comparison. Therefore, the valuation assessment depends heavily on Blue Creek's ability to maintain low costs and cash flow in an environment where management expects weaker prices and margins in the second half of fiscal 2026.
