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Stocks
Hudbay Minerals Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall97
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 7/9Better than 97% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
64
15.7x▲17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
93
13.0%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
61
13.0%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
85
0.0x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
40
0.05%▼2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
76
130.1%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
98
14▲3Top tier
HBM

HBM Hudbay Minerals Inc.

Hudbay Minerals Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
26.52
▼ ⁦-0.49%⁩ (-0.13)
Market Cap$11.8B
Beta2.27
52w Low52w High
12.1632.15
Last Week
⁦-1.85%⁩
Last Month
⁦-4.98%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-12.56%⁩
Last Year
⁦+119.90%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$27
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$32
⁦+21%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$32–$32⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$8.15
⁦-69%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦13.3⁩% discount · ⁦11⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$8.15–$32⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$32.00
⁦+20.7%⁩
Current Price $26.52·Median $32.00
Low
$32.00
High
$32.00
Street summary

Hudbay Minerals (HBM) Price Target Analysis

Bullish tilt

Hudbay Minerals stock shows a rare state of absolute consensus among analysts, with the price target settled at $32 with zero dispersion (High/Low/Median at 32), indicating complete agreement on the fair value of the stock, which is 6.4% above the current price (30.06). Although one analyst dropped out of the forecast sample over the past thirty days, the average remained constant and unchanged, reflecting stability in the analytical outlook toward the stock.

As of 2026-08-21
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.30
Buy
Analyst coverage
⁦23 (-1)⁩
Buy conviction
96%
High
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time23 analysts rating
8
14
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.35 → 4.30
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-04
    William Blair
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-04
    RBC Capital
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-07-30
    Scotiabank
    Outperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    15.69x
    4.94x39.51x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    14.67x
    3.70x29.59x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    7.10x
    2.62x20.92x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    2.3%
    -21.3%8.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    13.0%
    -21.2%90.4%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    129.4%
    -249.5%198.4%
    Strong
  • Gross Margin
    39.0%
    7.6%58.9%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    13.0%
    -52.6%20.2%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    0.1%
    0.2%5.5%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    0.8%
    4.7%147.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-29 data

Company Overview

Hudbay Minerals Inc. produces copper and gold through a diversified mining platform in Canada and Peru, with silver, zinc, and molybdenum as by-products. Revenue is primarily driven by copper, while gold provided 38% of total revenue in Q2 FY2026, and its by-product credits helped reduce copper costs. Operating assets include Constancia in Peru; Lalor, New Britannia, and Stall in Manitoba; and Copper Mountain in British Columbia, alongside the Copper World, Cactus, and Mason growth projects in the United States.

In Q2 FY2026, revenue was $631 million, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization were $321 million, representing a calculated margin of approximately 50.9%. Adjusted net earnings attributable to owners were $114 million, or $0.28 per share, while operating cash flow before changes in non-cash working capital reached $210 million, and free cash flow after sustaining capital expenditures and before growth investments exceeded $100 million.

The company produced approximately 28 thousand tonnes of copper and 51 thousand ounces of gold in Q2 FY2026, including 19 thousand tonnes of copper in Peru, 40 thousand ounces of gold in Manitoba, and 6.5 thousand tonnes of copper at Copper Mountain. On an FY2025 basis, revenue increased to $2.2 billion from $2.0 billion in FY2024, gross profit rose to $743.2 million from $553.8 million, and net income jumped to $564.3 million from $67.8 million, with earnings per share of $1.44 versus $0.20.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Cash profitability improved due to the copper and gold diversification; Hudbay recorded a negative consolidated cash cost of $0.40 per pound of copper and a sustaining cash cost of $1.39 per pound in Q2 FY2026. Management also raised its FY2026 cash cost guidance after the year-to-date cost reached approximately negative $1 per pound.
  • Expansion investments in existing assets target a 24% increase in consolidated copper production to approximately 150 thousand tonnes in FY2027. At Copper Mountain, ore processed increased 17% from Q1 FY2026 to 3.6 million tonnes, and average throughput reached approximately 40 thousand tonnes per day, with a target of reaching the permitted capacity of 50 thousand tonnes per day in the second half of FY2026.
  • Constancia received a permit amendment increasing annual milling capacity to 34 million tonnes from 31 million tonnes, a level the company incorporated into its FY2026 to FY2028 guidance. Hudbay is installing a pebble crusher in Peru to increase throughput rates beginning in Q3 FY2026, after average throughput reached approximately 86 thousand tonnes per day in Q2.
  • Engineering work at Copper World was 95% complete, and the final investment decision remained targeted for FY2026, with first production targeted for the second half of FY2029. On June 24, 2026, the project also secured $52 million in long-term U.S. municipal bonds with a fixed interest rate of 4.5% and an initial mandatory tender date of July 2, 2036.
  • Hudbay completed the acquisition of Arizona Sonoran in June 2026, adding the Cactus project to its U.S. portfolio, and expects to spend approximately $30 million on it in the second half of FY2026. The updated preliminary feasibility study is targeted for the second half of FY2027, while management's plan indicates that Cactus could produce more than 100 thousand tonnes of copper annually following the development of Copper World.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The results showed significant financial improvement between FY2024 and FY2025; revenue grew approximately 10% to $2.2 billion, gross profit increased approximately 34% to $743.2 million, and net income increased more than eightfold to $564.3 million.
  • +The balance sheet provides clear capacity to fund growth; liquidity exceeded $1 billion as of June 30, 2026, including $890 million in cash and cash equivalents and $154 million available under credit facilities, with net cash of $80 million and a net debt-to-adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization ratio of negative 0.1 times.
  • +The copper and gold mix provides relative operational protection, as gold represented 38% of total Q2 FY2026 revenue, and gold by-product credits more than offset fuel and input cost pressures and enabled a negative consolidated copper cash cost.
  • +The growth plan combines near-term expansions at existing assets with long-term U.S. projects; the company targets 24% growth in copper production to approximately 150 thousand tonnes in FY2027, approximately 250 thousand tonnes annually by the end of the decade following Copper World, and then a path to 500 thousand tonnes by the middle of the following decade with Cactus and Mason.

▼ Selling Case

Valuation

The analyst consensus is "Buy," with an average price target of $32 and identical high and low targets of $32, meaning the reported estimate range provides no diversity of views. This target is just below the 52-week range high of $32.15, while the range extends to a low of $11.62, and no price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data to assess valuation through earnings; therefore, the target's justification is primarily tied to the continuation of strong margins and the execution of the Copper Mountain, Copper World, and Cactus expansions, balanced against the risks of higher capital expenditures and operating costs.

BuyAnalyst target: $32(+20.7%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What is driving Hudbay Minerals' earnings in Q2 FY2026?

Hudbay generated revenue of $631 million and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $321 million in Q2 FY2026. Adjusted net earnings attributable to owners were $114 million, or $0.28 per share. Gold supported the results by representing 38% of total revenue, while its by-product credits reduced consolidated copper cash cost to negative $0.40 per pound.

Can Hudbay fund the Copper World, Cactus, and Mason projects?

Hudbay's liquidity exceeded $1 billion as of June 30, 2026, including $890 million in cash and cash equivalents and $154 million available under credit facilities. The company recorded net cash of $80 million and a net debt-to-adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization ratio of negative 0.1 times. It also generated more than $400 million in free cash flow during the twelve months ended Q2 FY2026, but Copper World will require spending above the 2023 study estimate, while the company allocated approximately $30 million to Cactus in the second half of FY2026.

What is Hudbay's plan to increase copper production?

The company expects investments in existing assets to increase consolidated copper production by 24% to approximately 150 thousand tonnes in FY2027. Copper World is targeted to increase annual production to approximately 250 thousand tonnes by the end of the decade, with first production from the project targeted for the second half of FY2029. Following the phased development of Cactus and Mason, management sees a path to 500 thousand tonnes of copper by the middle of the following decade, with Cactus alone expected to add more than 100 thousand tonnes annually.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

6 pts
  • −Funding and execution requirements at Copper World may exceed previous estimates, as management confirmed that capital expenditures in the definitive feasibility study will be higher than in the 2023 preliminary feasibility study due to inflation and scope changes, and it was unable on July 29, 2026, to quantify the increase. U.S. tariff policies also remained fluid, making it difficult to lock in the costs of certain construction inputs.
  • −Copper Mountain faces recovery and cost challenges while increasing throughput; copper and gold recoveries declined due to a ball mill grinding constraint, and cash cost was $3.22 per pound in Q2 FY2026, above the FY2026 guidance range, due to higher mining costs, lower deferred stripping, and lower by-product credits.
  • −Manitoba operations remain exposed to labor and equipment constraints; labor shortages and lower processed tonnage led to lower gold and copper production compared with the previous quarter, and the company had to engage a mining contractor and hire or train approximately 100 employees. An unplanned failure of the hoist gearbox at the Lalor mine during June 2026 also had a limited production impact, although it was repaired within several days and described as an isolated incident.
  • −Hudbay's margins depend partly on by-product prices, particularly gold; copper cash cost in Peru increased to $1.66 per pound following the depletion of gold stockpiles at Pampacancha during Q1 FY2026 and lower gold credits. Management estimated that every $10 increase in the price of WTI crude adds approximately $0.04 per pound to cash cost.
  • −The growth portfolio requires simultaneous spending on several projects before they begin generating production; expected growth spending in British Columbia during FY2026 increased by approximately $30 million to $115 million, with an additional $30 million expected at Cactus during the second half. The preliminary Cactus and Mason studies are also not targeted for completion before the second half of FY2027, extending the period of study, permitting, and execution risk.
  • −Peruvian sales faced a logistical disruption in Q2 FY2026 when ocean swells and temporary port closures led to a buildup of copper concentrates and deferred the sale of approximately 10 thousand dry metric tonnes to early July 2026. This demonstrates that the timing of revenue and cash flows may be temporarily affected even when production remains in line with the plan.
What are the main operational challenges at Copper Mountain?

Copper Mountain produced approximately 6.5 thousand tonnes of copper and 5.6 thousand ounces of gold in Q2 FY2026. Ore processed increased 17% from the previous quarter to 3.6 million tonnes, but the throughput ramp-up exposed a grinding constraint that led to lower copper and gold recoveries. Cash cost was $3.22 per pound, above the FY2026 guidance range, despite management reaffirming its target of processing 50 thousand tonnes per day and achieving full-year cost guidance.

What did the acquisition of Arizona Sonoran add to Hudbay?

Hudbay completed the acquisition of Arizona Sonoran in June 2026, adding the Cactus project to its Arizona copper operations. Management describes Cactus as a high-grade, near-surface copper oxide project using open-pit mining, heap leaching, and an SX/EW facility to produce copper cathode within the United States. The company intends to spend approximately $30 million in the second half of FY2026 on studies, de-risking, and exploration, with the updated preliminary feasibility study scheduled for completion in the second half of FY2027.

What executive changes did Hudbay announce on July 29, 2026?

Hudbay announced the appointment of Eugene Lei as President and Chief Financial Officer, after he had served as Chief Financial Officer since 2022. Rob Carter was also appointed Chief Operating Officer, moving from his position as Senior Vice President of Canadian Operations. Carter will assume responsibility from Andre Lauzon, who the company announced will retire at the end of September 2026, while Peter Kukielski continued speaking in his capacity as the company's Chief Executive Officer.