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Home
Stocks
Goosehead Insurance, Inc
GSHD

GSHD Goosehead Insurance, Inc

Goosehead Insurance, Inc · NASDAQ
Market Closed
57.18
▲ ⁦+1.31%⁩ (+0.74)
Market Cap$2.1B
Beta1.35
52w Low52w High
33.6887.39
Last Week
⁦-16.46%⁩
Last Month
⁦-14.22%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+66.27%⁩
Last Year
⁦-33.87%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall42
Weak — below market medianSucker StockF 5/8Better than 42% of Market stocks, per EL7's modelUnsustainable dividend (payout > 100%)
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
16
57.9x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
84
17.7%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
4
——Bottom tier
▸
Safety
2
——Bottom tier
▸
Capital Return
75
6.69%▲2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
43
-22.7%▼2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
92
9▲3Top tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$57
Analyst target · 4 analysts
$72
⁦+26%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$58–$76⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$22
⁦-61%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦10.4⁩% discount · ⁦4⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$22–$72⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 4 analysts setting price target
$69.50
⁦+21.5%⁩
Current Price $57.18·Median $72.00
Low
$58.00
High
$76.00
Current price
$57.18
Average target
$69.50
Street summary

GSHD Price Target Revision Analysis

Goosehead Insurance stock has seen a notable improvement in analyst optimism over the past 30 days, with the average price target rising by 10.62% to reach $69.5, coinciding with the number of analysts participating in the coverage doubling from 2 to 4. Despite this positive momentum in revisions, the current stock price (72.52) is already trading above the consensus level and approaching the upper target limit of $76, which narrows the expected upside margin according to these estimates.

As of 2026-08-21
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+6.6%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.54
Buy
Analyst coverage
⁦13 (+2)⁩
New coverage
Buy conviction
46%
Mixed
Target dispersion
31%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time13 analysts rating
3
3
6
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.54 → 3.54
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-23
    Cantor Fitzgerald
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-07-15
    Piper Sandler
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-07-13
    RBC Capital
    Sector Perform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    57.86x
    3.16x25.26x
    Very expensive
  • Forward P/E
    22.67x
    2.76x22.06x
    Very expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • FCF Yield
    —
    —
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    17.7%
    -36.3%104.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    21.9%
    -99.4%194.2%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    —
    —
  • ROIC
    —
    —
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    6.7%
    0.6%9.0%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    275.3%
    9.8%97.8%
    High
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-22 data

Company Overview

Goosehead Insurance operates as a distributor of personal insurance, with a primary focus on homeowners and auto insurance, and relies on three distribution channels: its franchise network, corporate sales team, and embedded partnerships. The company generates revenue from new business and renewal commissions, agency fees, franchise royalties, and contingent commissions linked to business volume and portfolio profitability at insurance carriers. It supports this growth through relationships with more than 200 insurance carriers, the Digital Agent 2.0 platform, and a nationwide network combining digital sales with access to licensed agents.

In Q2 of fiscal year 2026, revenue increased 21% year over year to $113.4 million, while core revenue rose 10% to $95.6 million; after excluding a nonrecurring $4 million collection in the comparison period, adjusted growth was 26% for total revenue and 16% for core revenue. Net income was $10.1 million, representing a calculated net margin of approximately 8.9%, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 30% to $37.9 million, with a 33% margin. Revenue for the twelve months ended in 2026 was approximately $402.2 million, with net income of $35.3 million and earnings per share of approximately $0.99.

The Q2 fiscal year 2026 mix reflects broad-based growth, but it also benefited from a significant surge in contingent commissions; supplemental revenue increased 180% to $16.3 million, new business commissions rose 27% to $9 million, and new business royalties increased 20% to $9.4 million. Corporate sales represented 21% of total new business commissions and agency fees, while written premiums rose 14% to approximately $1.36 billion, policies in force increased 15% to 2.1 million policies, and client retention improved to 86%. These figures show that the franchise network remains the core foundation, while corporate sales and digital technology have become more important contributors to growth.

What's Driving the Stock

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Goosehead raised the lower end of its fiscal year 2026 revenue growth outlook and now expects organic growth between 12% and 19%, with written premium growth expected between 12% and 20%; the increase in the lower end was primarily driven by contingent commissions performing better than previous estimates.
  • Operating activity accelerated in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, as written premiums increased 14% compared with 13% growth in the previous quarter, and policies in force rose 15% compared with 14%, while new business commissions recorded a second consecutive quarter of growth exceeding 20% for the first time since 2021.
  • The franchise network supports growth through 2.19 thousand producers, up 5% year over year, with producer hiring increasing 30% and the average reaching 2.4 producers per franchise. Same-store sales rose 22% in the quarter, growth among the top 50 franchises exceeded 40%, and the average monthly franchise payout increased by more than 35% to over $28 thousand.
  • Corporate sales became the company’s fastest-growing channel and generated nearly $3 million in new business commissions and agency fees during the quarter, up 70% year over year. After only six months of production, the embedded Planet Home agency ranked within the top 5% of franchises, benefiting from the transfer of more than 10 experienced producers from the corporate sales team.
  • Digital Agent 2.0 enabled customers in Texas to complete shopping for and binding homeowners and auto policies digitally across multiple insurance carriers, while retaining the option to contact a licensed agent. In parallel, Lily fully handles approximately 20% of inbound service calls, exceeding 30% during some periods, reducing administrative work and directing employees toward more complex cases.
  • Mark Miller is scheduled to retire at the end of fiscal year 2026 after a 40-year career and hand over the chief executive officer position to Mark Jones Junior, while Miller remains a member of the board of directors. Jones confirmed that the strategy will not change and that the priority will be to accelerate execution, streamline operations, and make decisions more quickly.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The upside case is based on simultaneous improvement across key activity indicators: written premium growth of 14%, policies in force growth of 15%, new business commission growth of 27%, and an increase in client retention from 85% to 86% in Q2 of fiscal year 2026.
    • +The franchise network provides a scalable growth engine; the number of producers reached 2.19 thousand, hiring increased 30%, and existing franchises achieved 22% sales growth, while some agencies reached more than 40 producers and one exceeded 50 producers.
    • +The corporate sales and digital distribution channels can expand the addressable market without relying entirely on increasing the number of traditional agents; corporate sales represented 21% of new business commissions and agency fees, and fully digital transactions became available in Texas through Digital Agent 2.0.
    • +Operating profitability improved alongside growth, as adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 30% to $37.9 million, with a 33% margin. The company also generated $38.8 million in operating cash flow during the first half of fiscal year 2026 and repurchased more than 1 million shares for $53.7 million.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Contingent commissions remain inherently volatile despite increasing 180% to $16.3 million in Q2 of fiscal year 2026; management explained that results may fluctuate within a wide range depending on business profitability, business mix, and contract terms. The increase in the lower end of the revenue outlook was also primarily based on improved contingent commissions, rather than a change in the core revenue outlook.
    • −Management expects moderate pressure on core margins during fiscal year 2026 because compensation and general and administrative expenses are projected to grow from the high teens to the low twenties in percentage terms, potentially exceeding core revenue growth. Expenses also included implementation costs related to Digital Agent and a franchise conference that added $1.5 million to general and administrative expenses in the quarter.
    • −Lower insurance rates could slow premium growth per policy even as the number of customers increases; management expects auto insurance rates to decline by mid-single-digit percentages, while homeowners insurance rates appear generally stable or up by low-single-digit percentages in some regions. This effect was already evident in written premium growth of 14% closely tracking policies in force growth of 15%.
    • −The corporate channel has greater geographic exposure to Texas than the more diversified franchise network, and management stated that this partly explains the difference in renewal performance between the two channels. This concentration makes the corporate channel’s results more sensitive to insurance market conditions in the state.
    • −The company ended Q2 of fiscal year 2026 with $23.7 million in cash and cash equivalents compared with total debt of $323 million. Although management described the balance sheet as conservative, this gap limits flexibility compared with a company with net cash, particularly alongside investments in technology, service, and sales, as well as share repurchases.
    • −

    Valuation

    The average analyst price target is $69.5, within a relatively wide range of $58 to $76, with a consensus rating of “Buy”; the average is approximately 18.7% below the 52-week range high of $85.525. The 52-week range extends from $33.68 to $85.525, reflecting significant variation in the market’s valuation, while the available data does not provide a usable price-to-earnings ratio despite earnings per share of approximately $0.99 over the latest twelve months. Therefore, the available valuation relies more on analyst targets and the breadth of their range than on a reported earnings multiple, while requiring a balance between core business growth, contingent commission volatility, and expected expense pressure.

    BuyAnalyst target: $69.5(+21.5%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    How does Goosehead Insurance generate revenue?

    Goosehead generates revenue from commissions on the sale and renewal of personal insurance policies, agency fees, franchise network royalties, and contingent commissions linked to business volume and profitability at insurance carriers. In Q2 of fiscal year 2026, core revenue was $95.6 million out of total revenue of $113.4 million. Supplemental revenue, consisting primarily of contingent commissions, reached $16.3 million after year-over-year growth of 180%.

    What drove Goosehead’s growth in Q2 of fiscal year 2026?

    Written premiums increased 14% to approximately $1.36 billion, and policies in force rose 15% to 2.1 million policies. New business commissions also increased 27% to $9 million, while new business royalties grew 20% to $9.4 million. Improved client retention to 86%, a more stable insurance environment, geographic expansion, and corporate sales growth contributed to these results.

    How important are Digital Agent 2.0 and Lily to GSHD’s growth?

    During the first half of fiscal year 2026, Digital Agent 2.0 enabled customers in Texas to complete the digital shopping and binding process for homeowners and auto policies across multiple insurance carriers. Customers can transition to a licensed agent after entering their information, giving the producer a more qualified opportunity and increasing productivity rather than replacing the producer. Lily fully handles approximately 20% of inbound service calls, exceeding 30% during some periods, focusing on tasks such as identification cards, billing questions, and policy details.

    What is Goosehead’s outlook for the rest of fiscal year 2026?

    The company expects total revenue to grow organically between 12% and 19% during fiscal year 2026, after raising the lower end of the range due to improved contingent commissions. It also expects written premiums to grow organically between 12% and 20%. Conversely, management expects moderate pressure on core margins because growth in compensation and general and administrative expenses may exceed core revenue growth during the current investment cycle.

    What does the chief executive officer transition mean for Goosehead shareholders?

    Mark Miller stated during the July 22, 2026 call that he will retire at the end of fiscal year 2026 after a 40-year career. He will hand over the chief executive officer position to Mark Jones Junior, who has spent nearly 10 years on the management team, while Miller will remain a member of the board of directors. Jones confirmed that the company’s strategy will not change and that the next phase will focus on execution speed, streamlined operations, and faster decision-making.

    The chief executive officer transition at the end of fiscal year 2026 represents a specific execution risk, as Mark Miller will retire and hand over the position to Mark Jones Junior while remaining a member of the board of directors. Management confirmed that the strategy will remain unchanged, but executing the goals of faster decision-making and streamlined operations will require maintaining momentum across the franchise network, corporate sales, and client retention during the transition.