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Stocks
Green Brick Partners, Inc.
GRBK

GRBK Green Brick Partners, Inc.

Green Brick Partners, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
68.42
▲ ⁦+1.36%⁩ (+0.92)
Market Cap$2.9B
Beta1.80
52w Low52w High
60.4483.18
Last Week
⁦-3.54%⁩
Last Month
⁦-4.23%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+1.91%⁩
Last Year
⁦-3.69%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall54
Balanced — near the middle of the marketContrarianF 4/9SafeBetter than 54% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
84
10.3x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
14
-5.5%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
56
13.5%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
87
0.4x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
22
0.10%▼2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
46
7.5%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
33
2▼3Bottom tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$68
Analyst target
No data
vs
DCF (estimate)
$19
⁦-72%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦12.4⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target
—
Current Price $68.42
Average rating
★ 3.00
Hold
Analyst coverage
3
Buy conviction
0%
Analyst ratings over time3 analysts rating
3
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.00 → 3.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2025-12-01
    BTIG
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2024-05-03
    Wedbush
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2024-05-03
    B. Riley
    Neutral
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    10.29x
    4.56x36.49x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    10.57x
    3.79x30.29x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    7.70x
    2.75x22.03x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    3.8%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -5.5%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -11.5%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    30.4%
    12.0%66.5%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    13.5%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.45x
    0.65x5.48x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    0.1%
    0.1%5.9%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    1.0%
    8.9%99.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    6.21
    -2.656.14
    Exceptional
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-30 data

Company Overview

Green Brick Partners builds and sells homes through a portfolio of brands serving multiple price segments, most notably Trophy Signature Homes for first-time buyers, alongside Southgate Homes, Centre Living Homes, and The Providence Group. The company relies on owning and self-developing land rather than using high-cost land financing arrangements; as of June 30, 2026, it owned 76% of approximately 52 thousand lots owned or under contract. It also generates financial services revenue through Green Brick Mortgage, which funds homebuyer loans and benefits from customer referrals from its affiliated homebuilders.

In Q2 fiscal 2026, revenue was $493.8 million, gross profit was $145.3 million, net income was $74.2 million, and diluted earnings per share were $1.70. Home closings revenue was $472 million after delivering 1,047 homes at an average selling price of $450 thousand, while the homebuilding gross margin was 29.8%; this margin included a positive impact of 60 basis points from a $2.7 million reduction in the warranty reserve.

Trophy Signature Homes accounted for approximately 60% of deliveries in Q2 fiscal 2026, making lower-priced homes an increasingly important part of the company’s mix. Meanwhile, financial services segment revenue increased to $12 million from $6.3 million in Q2 fiscal 2025, and its pre-tax income rose 91% to $5.7 million. On a trailing twelve-month fiscal 2026 basis, the company recorded revenue of $2.0 billion, gross profit of $594.5 million, and net income of $291.3 million.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Net new home orders in Q2 fiscal 2026 increased 19% year over year to 1,079 homes, supported by a 6% increase in the average number of active selling communities to 108 communities and a 10% rise in the monthly sales pace to 3.3 homes per community.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Trophy Signature Homes is driving operational growth; its sales pace exceeded six homes per month in the DFW market, it represented 60% of quarterly deliveries, and it became the third-largest builder in DFW by volume, according to management. The brand began making its first deliveries in Riviera Pines in Houston during Q2 fiscal 2026, with momentum also improving in Austin.
  • Green Brick Mortgage funded 521 loans in Q2 fiscal 2026, representing an increase of 257% in funded loans year over year and 43% quarter over quarter. Its capture rate for financing the company’s buyers was 66%, and management expects it to exceed 70% by the end of 2026 as the rollout in Texas is completed and the planned expansion to The Providence Group in Atlanta occurs during the latter part of fiscal 2026.
  • The average construction cycle decreased by 29 days year over year to 124 days, while Trophy’s cycle in DFW declined from 103 days to 84 days, the brand’s lowest level on record according to management. Faster execution helped the company start construction on 1,133 homes during the quarter, up 19% year over year and 16% quarter over quarter, while keeping the number of homes under construction at 2,205 homes.
  • For fiscal 2026, the company allocated approximately $400 million to land and lot purchases and approximately $450 million to land development, excluding reimbursements. Approximately 80% of the roughly 52 thousand lots owned or under contract are allocated to Trophy, linking a significant portion of future growth to continued demand for first-time-buyer homes.
  • The company announced that Jed Dolson will become co-chief executive officer alongside James Brickman effective October 15, 2026. Dolson had served as president and chief operating officer, and Brickman said Dolson had been a key driver of the company’s performance since before it became a public company.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The company combines 19% order growth in Q2 fiscal 2026 with a homebuilding gross margin of 29.8%, despite higher incentives and affordability pressures. This indicates that its land and construction platform can increase volume while maintaining relatively high profitability.
    • +The balance sheet provides clear flexibility; liquidity totaled $462 million as of June 30, 2026, including $132 million in cash, with no borrowings under a $330 million unsecured revolving credit facility. Net homebuilding debt to total capital was also only 6.1%, compared with a total debt ratio of 11.2%.
    • +The land inventory supports several years of growth, as the company owns or controls under contract approximately 52 thousand lots, including approximately 40 thousand owned lots, and estimates its developable supply at about five years after excluding roughly 30 thousand lots designated for future phases in long-term communities. Owning 76% of total lots limits reliance on high-cost land financiers.
    • +The expansion of Green Brick Mortgage represents an additional source of income; financial services revenue nearly doubled to $12 million in Q2 fiscal 2026, while pre-tax income increased 91% to $5.7 million. Exceeding a 70% capture rate by the end of 2026 could increase the number of loans funded for the company’s homebuyers.

    ▼ Selling Case7 pts

    • −Home closings revenue in Q2 fiscal 2026 declined 11.4% year over year despite an approximately stable number of deliveries, while net income attributable to Green Brick fell 9.5% and diluted earnings per share declined 8%. These declines reflect a shift in the mix toward lower-priced Trophy homes, and management expects the average selling price to continue declining as communities selling homes at approximately $325 thousand grow.
    • −The order backlog at the end of Q2 fiscal 2026 declined 24% year over year to 681 homes valued at $387 million, while the average backlog home price fell 18% to $569 thousand. Trophy’s share of backlog units also rose to 44% from 26%, increasing the dependence of future revenue on a lower-priced product.
    • −Interest rates and affordability are pressuring margins; discounts and incentives increased to 8.8% of home closings revenue, up 180 basis points, while the homebuilding margin declined 150 basis points year over year to 29.8%. Incentives on new orders were 9.1%, and management explained that the company would absorb the higher cost of interest-rate buydowns if rates rose and buyers would not accept higher payments.
    • −Growth has become more concentrated in Trophy Signature Homes, which represented 60% of deliveries and is allocated approximately 80% of the lots owned or under contract, while management described the other businesses as stable rather than growing. This makes results more sensitive to continued demand from first-time buyers in DFW, Houston, and Austin and to the company’s ability to offer appropriate pricing and incentives.
    • −Markets showed clear divergence in July 2026; management described sales activity as uneven, with a strong month in Riviera Beach versus a severe slowdown in Atlanta. The Atlanta business also faces weakness associated with visa issues and its focus on move-up homes with an average price of approximately $700 thousand, rather than entry-level homes.
    • −

    Valuation

    The stock carries a neutral analyst consensus, providing no clear directional endorsement of its valuation, while its 52-week range extends from $60.44 to $83.18. In the absence of a price-to-earnings multiple presented in the data, earnings per share of $7.07 in fiscal 2025 and $6.73 for the trailing twelve months of fiscal 2026 provide an earnings anchor, but declining earnings, margins, and backlog offset order growth and balance-sheet strength.

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What drove GRBK’s results in Q2 fiscal 2026?

    Green Brick Partners generated approximately $493.8 million in revenue, $74.2 million in net income, and $1.70 in diluted earnings per share in Q2 fiscal 2026. The company delivered 1,047 homes and generated $472 million in home closings revenue at an average price of $450 thousand. Trophy Signature Homes led the mix with a 60% share of deliveries, while new orders increased 19% to 1,079 homes.

    Why is Green Brick Partners’ average home selling price declining?

    The decline reflects the expansion of Trophy Signature Homes, which sells lower-priced homes and targets first-time buyers. Management explained on July 30, 2026, that many of Trophy’s new communities offer homes at an average price of approximately $325 thousand, compared with the company’s average closing price of $450 thousand in Q2 fiscal 2026. The average price of homes in the order backlog declined 18% to $569 thousand, and management expects the average selling price to continue trending downward as Trophy’s weighting increases.

    Can GRBK maintain its margin as incentives increase?

    The homebuilding gross margin was 29.8% in Q2 fiscal 2026, down 150 basis points year over year and up 90 basis points quarter over quarter. Discounts and incentives increased to 8.8% of home closings revenue, while incentives on new orders were 9.1%. The quarterly margin also benefited by approximately 60 basis points from a $2.7 million reduction in the warranty reserve, so a continued increase in the cost of interest-rate buydowns could create additional pressure.

    How important is Green Brick Mortgage to the company’s growth?

    Green Brick Mortgage funded 521 loans in Q2 fiscal 2026, and funded loan volume increased 257% year over year and 43% quarter over quarter. The capture rate was 66%, and 65% of the loans were for first-time buyers, with an average FICO score of 736 and an average debt-to-income ratio of 40%. Management expects the capture rate to exceed 70% by the end of 2026, alongside the continued rollout in Texas and the planned expansion to The Providence Group in Atlanta during the latter part of fiscal 2026.

    How strong is Green Brick Partners’ balance sheet?

    Liquidity totaled $462 million as of June 30, 2026, including $132 million in cash and no borrowings under the $330 million revolving credit facility. Total debt, excluding warehouse facilities, was $252 million, including $75 million of senior notes due within the following twelve months. The homebuilding debt-to-total-capital ratio was also 11.2%, and the net debt ratio was 6.1%, while the company returned $39 million to shareholders through share repurchases during the twelve months ended in the quarter.

    What does Jed Dolson’s appointment as GRBK’s co-chief executive officer mean?

    Green Brick Partners announced that Jed Dolson will join James Brickman as co-chief executive officer effective October 15, 2026. Dolson had served as president and chief operating officer, and Brickman said during the July 30, 2026 call that Dolson had worked at the company since before it became a public company and had been a key driver of its success. His stated operational scope is associated with expanding Trophy Signature Homes, improving construction cycles, and growing Green Brick Mortgage, while Brickman remains co-chief executive officer.

    The company is monitoring Canadian tariffs and other trade measures as a potential source of higher construction costs, although it had not recorded a material impact as of July 30, 2026. Lumber costs also increased during fiscal 2026, contrary to the declining trend in the costs of other construction materials and labor.
  • −Net insider transactions during the three months ended with the latest transaction on June 9, 2026, consisted of sales totaling 352,930 shares through two sales and no purchases. This is a weak trading signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged unless the evidence shows otherwise.