| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 94 | 8.9x | 17.8x | Top tier | |
Growth | 47 | -23.7% | 7.1% | Around median | |
Quality | 80 | 14.7% | 4.5% | Top tier | |
Safety | 65 | 1.5x | 2.6x | Around median | |
Capital Return | 17 | 0.07% | 2.12% | Bottom tier | |
Momentum | 70 | 84.7% | 2.9% | Top tier | |
Sentiment | 68 | 4 | 3 | Top tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Green Plains operates a platform for processing corn and producing low-carbon-intensity ethanol, alongside sales of coproducts such as corn oil, protein, and distillers grains. It also generates value from carbon capture and low-carbon fuel credits, particularly Section 45Z credits; therefore, its earnings are driven by corn crush margins, ethanol and coproduct prices, as well as regulatory returns associated with emissions reductions.
In fiscal Q2 2026, revenue was $446.2 million, gross profit was $113.0 million, net income was $67.1 million, and diluted earnings per share were $0.83. This equates to a gross margin of approximately 25.3%, compared with gross profit of $87.9 million and a margin of approximately 19.7% in fiscal Q1 2026, while net income rose from $32.9 million and earnings per share from $0.42.
Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization were $93.3 million in fiscal Q2 2026, compared with $71.5 million in the previous quarter and $16.4 million in the corresponding period of the previous year. The carbon business contributed a net $59 million, or approximately 63% of this measure, after $55.2 million in the previous quarter, while the company produced approximately 161 million gallons of ethanol and processed more than 54 million bushels of corn at a capacity utilization rate of approximately 90%. Compared with a net loss of $121.3 million in fiscal 2025, the quarterly results confirm a significant turnaround in profitability, although an important portion of it is tied to the carbon platform.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $20 and identical high and low targets of $20; this uniformity means there is no diverse range of estimates that can be used to gauge the dispersion of opinions. The target is slightly above the 52-week range high of $19.65, while the range low is $8.65. No price-to-earnings ratio is available, so the revaluation case depends on the sustainability of 45Z earnings and ethanol margins following the fiscal 2025 loss, while reliance on regulatory incentives and the lack of monetization of 2026 credits as of August 6, 2026 represent the counterpoint to this valuation.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-02; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
The company recorded net income of $67.1 million and diluted earnings per share of $0.83, compared with $32.9 million and $0.42 in fiscal Q1 2026. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization rose to $93.3 million, supported by $59 million contributed by the carbon business. Results also benefited from higher crush margins, strong corn oil prices, stable protein values, and lower natural gas costs compared with the previous quarter.
The carbon business generated a net $59 million of adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization in fiscal Q2 2026, bringing the first-half total to approximately $114 million. August 25, 2026 news reports estimated the value of 45Z credits at approximately $1.11 per bushel, alongside a 274% year-over-year increase in total gross margin per bushel. Green Plains had not monetized its 2026 credits as of August 6, 2026 and was focused on selecting a partner and arrangement that would provide stable cash flows while satisfying compliance and audit requirements.
Capacity utilization was approximately 90% in fiscal Q2 2026, with production of approximately 161 million gallons of ethanol and processing of more than 54 million bushels of corn. The outages included spring maintenance and the replacement of molecular sieve beads at the Madison facility, a process that typically occurs once every eight to ten years. Management is targeting approximately 95% utilization for the full fiscal year 2026 and expressed confidence in exceeding 90% after the major maintenance period.
Management estimated U.S. ethanol exports at approximately 2.4 billion gallons in the previous year and believed that reaching 2.5 billion gallons was possible in 2026 and 2027. The markets cited include Canada, Europe, the United Kingdom, and certain countries in South America and the Far East, with blending mandates ranging from 5% to 10% and 20% in several countries. Management estimated subsequent annual growth opportunities at between 1% and 2% and potentially 5%, but acknowledged that U.S. ethanol must remain competitive with Brazilian production.
The company generated approximately $87 million in operating cash flow in fiscal Q2 2026 and held more than $243 million in cash and cash equivalents at the end of June. Management identified priorities including asset maintenance, reducing approximately $484 million of debt, and improving yield, energy consumption, and carbon intensity. Specific projects include expanding grain storage at Wood River, a low-energy distillation project at York, and corn oil improvements across the network during the twelve months following the August 6, 2026 call, while no share repurchase program had been announced.
