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GPGI, Inc.
GPGI

GPGI GPGI, Inc.

GPGI, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
13.30
▲ ⁦+3.10%⁩ (+0.40)
Market Cap$3.9B
Beta0.89
52w Low52w High
11.2226.78
Last Week
⁦-4.73%⁩
Last Month
⁦-7.32%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+11.39%⁩
Last Year
⁦-30.44%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall14
Poor — bottom quartile of the marketF 3/9Better than 14% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
67
—17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
11
-100.0%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
—
—4.5%N/A
▸
Safety
95
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
22
0.00%▼2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
12
-24.1%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
78
1▼3Top tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$13
Analyst target
No data
vs
DCF (estimate)
$2.81
⁦-79%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦8.3⁩% discount · ⁦4⁩% growth

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target
—
Current Price $13.30
Analyst coverage
6
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-05-15
    JP Morgan
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2025-12-04
    JP Morgan
    Neutral
  • ⬆ Upgrade2025-11-12
    JP Morgan
    UnderweightNeutral
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    —
    —
  • Forward P/E
    11.84x
    4.57x36.58x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • FCF Yield
    1.1%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -100.0%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Weak
  • EPS Growth YoY
    8.4%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    —
    —
  • ROIC
    —
    —
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    0.0%
    0.1%4.8%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-06 data

Company Overview

GPGI, Inc. is a holding company that operates its platform through CompoSecure and Husky, applying the Resolute Operating System ROS to both companies to increase sales, control costs, and improve cash generation. CompoSecure manufactures premium metal cards and related solutions for card issuers, with a base of more than 200 active programs, while Husky provides systems, equipment, tooling, and services for producing beverage and food packaging and medical applications. At Husky, approximately 30% to 35% of revenue comes from new systems, approximately 40% from aftermarket tooling, and 25% to 30% from services, spare parts, and the Advantage+Elite remote monitoring solution, supported by an installed base of approximately 13,500 systems worldwide.

In Q2 of fiscal year 2026, GPGI recorded adjusted pro forma net sales of $473.2 million, down approximately 4% year over year, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $113.9 million, down approximately 13%, with a margin of 24.1%, a decline of approximately 230 basis points. The company generated approximately $63 million in adjusted pro forma free cash flow, a level significantly higher than the comparable period according to management. These figures reflect a clear divergence between CompoSecure's growth and Husky's weakness, with both companies continuing to be accounted for under the equity method following the separation of Resolute Holdings.

CompoSecure's adjusted sales reached a record $133.6 million in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, up approximately 12%, and its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased approximately 14% to a record $55.2 million, with the margin expanding 70 basis points to 41.3%. In contrast, Husky's adjusted sales declined approximately 9% to $339.6 million, and its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization fell approximately 23% to $64.9 million, while its margin declined 330 basis points to 19.1%. At the annual financial statement level, GPGI recorded revenue of $59.8 million and a net loss of $136.0 million in fiscal year 2025, while the loss in Q1 of fiscal year 2026 was approximately $235.0 million.

What's Driving the Stock

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • CompoSecure's acceleration represents the strongest operating driver; its sales increased approximately 12% to $133.6 million in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, and its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin reached 41.3%, supported by manufacturing efficiency and investments in sales and research and development over 21 months.
  • CompoSecure's program base expanded through launches bearing the names Samsung, U.S. Bank Amazon Business, American Express Delta SkyMiles Reserve, Klarna, DolarApp ARQ, and Kast, alongside more than 200 active card programs. The company is also targeting the debit card market, entry-level metal cards, international expansion through a new design center in London, and tokenization solutions for card activation integration.
  • GPGI reaffirmed its fiscal year 2026 guidance for pro forma net sales of between $1.95 billion and $2.10 billion, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of between $550 million and $610 million, and adjusted free cash flow of between $275 million and $325 million. The midpoint of the guidance represents nearly flat revenue and approximately 7% year-over-year growth in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
  • Husky's indicators showed some improvement despite continued weakness; its opportunity pipeline grew by more than 10%, and systems performance improved relative to the prior-quarter outlook, while the margin expanded by approximately 590 basis points compared with Q1 of fiscal year 2026 due to improved absorption of labor and fixed costs. Management expects Husky's revenue in the second half of fiscal year 2026 to be flat or slightly higher year over year, without assuming any additional material improvement in market conditions.
  • Husky's recurring services provide a degree of stability, as 25% to 30% of revenue comes from services and spare parts, with year-over-year improvement in spare parts, strong renewals, and expanded adoption of Advantage+Elite. The platform connects proactive monitoring and predictive maintenance to an installed base of approximately 13,500 systems, creating additional opportunities for recurring revenue and spare-parts sales.
  • Insider activity provides a limited positive signal; net three-month activity totaled 994,867.5 in favor of purchases, with one purchase transaction and no recorded sales, and the latest transaction occurred on June 11, 2026.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +CompoSecure provides tangible financial evidence of ROS's effectiveness, with record adjusted sales and earnings in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, sales growth of 12%, growth in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of 14%, and a margin increase to 41.3%.
  • +Husky combines an installed base of approximately 13,500 systems with a revenue mix that includes approximately 65% to 70% from aftermarket tooling and services, partially mitigating fluctuations in demand for new systems and supporting opportunities in maintenance, spare parts, and recurring digital solutions.
  • +Adjusted free cash flow of approximately $63 million in Q2 of fiscal year 2026 supports the debt-reduction plan, while management is targeting leverage of 3 times by the end of 2026, followed by a long-term range of between 2 times and 2.5 times.
  • +Fiscal year 2026 guidance confirms the potential for approximately 7% growth in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization at the midpoint of the range despite Husky's weakness, with a long-term target of mid- to high-single-digit annual organic growth, annual margin expansion of more than 100 basis points, and conversion of 90% to 100% of earnings into free cash flow.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −The platform's results depend heavily on Husky's recovery, as it accounted for $339.6 million of the $473.2 million in adjusted pro forma sales in Q2 of fiscal year 2026; Husky's sales declined approximately 9%, and its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization fell approximately 23% as customers deferred capital projects and aftermarket tooling orders.
  • −GPGI's adjusted pro forma sales declined approximately 4% in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, while adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization fell approximately 13%, demonstrating that CompoSecure's growth was insufficient to offset Husky's contraction. Fiscal year 2026 guidance also anticipates nearly flat revenue at the midpoint of the range, so growth acceleration depends on improved performance in the second half.
  • −The company lowered its fiscal year 2026 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin guidance range to 27%–29% because of tariff pass-through revenue and the possibility of a shift in Husky's mix. In Q2 of fiscal year 2026, GPGI's margin declined approximately 230 basis points to 24.1%, while Husky's margin declined approximately 330 basis points to 19.1%.
  • −Husky remains exposed to volatility in oil and resin prices, shipping disruptions related to the conflict in the Middle East, and uncertainty regarding tariffs, factors that have prolonged purchasing decisions and delayed customer product launches. Although management does not expect a material direct financial impact from tariffs, it acknowledged that the changing trade environment continues to affect the timing of customer purchases.
  • −Husky's improvement plan for the second half of fiscal year 2026 involves execution risks because it depends on stronger seasonality, better absorption of fixed costs, cost-reduction measures, and ROS gains, with only a partial offset to the higher capital costs incurred in the first and second quarters. Management also confirmed that market conditions have not returned to normal and that the guidance does not assume any additional material improvement.

Valuation

The analyst consensus rates GPGI stock as a Buy, but the data does not provide a consensus price target or a high and low target range on which to rely. The 52-week range is between $11.22 and $26.78, while no valid price-to-earnings ratio is available because of the loss for the twelve months ended in 2026; therefore, the valuation rationale is tied to CompoSecure's ability to sustain its growth and Husky's success in restoring margins, achieving free cash flow guidance, and reducing leverage.

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

Which business has the greater influence on GPGI stock performance?

GPGI combines CompoSecure, which specializes in premium metal cards, and Husky, which specializes in packaging manufacturing systems, tooling, and services. In Q2 of fiscal year 2026, Husky generated adjusted sales of $339.6 million out of the platform's total of $473.2 million, so its contraction had a significant impact on consolidated results. In contrast, CompoSecure was the growth driver, recording record sales of $133.6 million and an adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin of 41.3%.

Why is CompoSecure growing despite weak consolidated results?

CompoSecure's sales increased approximately 12% in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, and its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached $55.2 million, an increase of approximately 14%. The results were supported by programs bearing the names Samsung, Klarna, U.S. Bank Amazon Business, and American Express Delta SkyMiles Reserve, alongside a base of more than 200 active programs. ROS also helped improve manufacturing efficiency, achieve record production, and expand the margin by 70 basis points to 41.3%.

What caused Husky's weakness in Q2 of fiscal year 2026?

Husky's sales declined approximately 9% to $339.6 million, and its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization fell approximately 23% to $64.9 million. Management attributed this weakness to volatility in oil and resin prices, shipping disruptions related to the conflict in the Middle East, and changing tariff policies, which led to the deferral of some capital projects and product launches. Nevertheless, the opportunity pipeline grew by more than 10%, and Husky's margin improved by approximately 590 basis points compared with Q1 of fiscal year 2026.

What is GPGI's guidance for fiscal year 2026?

The company expects pro forma net sales of between $1.95 billion and $2.10 billion in fiscal year 2026. It also expects adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of between $550 million and $610 million and adjusted free cash flow of between $275 million and $325 million. Management maintained these ranges unchanged on August 6, 2026, but adjusted the margin range to 27%–29% because of tariff pass-through revenue and the possibility of a shift in Husky's mix.

How does Husky generate recurring revenue?

Husky relies on an installed base of approximately 13,500 systems worldwide, divided between PT and packaging systems. Approximately 40% of its revenue comes from aftermarket tooling, including molds, hot runner systems, and controllers, while 25% to 30% comes from services and spare parts. Advantage+Elite strengthens this aspect through remote monitoring and predictive maintenance, and management noted strong renewals and expanded adoption of the solution in Q2 of fiscal year 2026.

Do GPGI's current earnings support a traditional price-to-earnings ratio?

No valid price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data because GPGI recorded a net loss of $392.5 million during the twelve-month period ended in 2026, with a loss per share of approximately $1.4537. The loss in Q1 of fiscal year 2026 was also approximately $235.0 million, following an annual loss of $136.0 million in fiscal year 2025. Therefore, adjusted metrics currently feature prominently in the company's valuation, including $113.9 million in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization and approximately $63 million in adjusted free cash flow in Q2 of fiscal year 2026.

  • −No usable price-to-earnings ratio is available because losses continue; the net loss totaled $392.5 million during the twelve-month period ended in 2026, and the loss per share was approximately $1.4537. This makes the valuation more dependent on adjusted metrics, free cash flow, and successful deleveraging rather than earnings compliant with generally accepted accounting principles.