| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 38 | — | 17.8x | Bottom tier | |
Growth | 42 | 16.4% | 7.1% | Around median | |
Quality | 26 | 2.5% | 4.5% | Bottom tier | |
Safety | 33 | 5.8x | 2.6x | Bottom tier | |
Capital Return | 12 | — | 2.12% | Bottom tier | |
Momentum | 42 | -19.3% | 2.9% | Around median | |
Sentiment | 93 | 10 | 3 | Top tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
GFL Environmental operates in waste and environmental services in Canada and the United States, including residential and commercial waste collection, transfer stations, landfills, recycling, and transportation. It generates revenue from service fees, contractual pricing, and fuel surcharges, while benefiting from directing waste volumes to its existing facilities and integrating small acquisitions; fixed-fee service contracts also reduce its exposure to fluctuations in recycled material prices.
In Q2 FY2026, revenue increased 16.3%, including organic growth of 6.4%, which accelerated 180 basis points from the previous quarter, while price growth was 6.1%. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 30.4% despite a 65-basis-point negative impact from acquisitions, and consolidated organic margin increased 35 basis points year over year; the underlying margin excluding the impact of fuel, acquisitions, and external factors increased 125 basis points. The Canadian segment posted a record margin of 34%, and adjusted free cash flow reached $237 million.
The call does not include an absolute revenue or net income figure for Q2 FY2026, but the latest annual financial statements available in the data show that FY2020 revenue was $4.2 billion, compared with $3.3 billion in FY2019. In FY2020, gross profit was $190.1 million, net loss was $994.9 million, and earnings per share were negative $2.8, compared with gross profit of $273.8 million, a net loss of $451.7 million, and earnings per share of negative $2.5 in FY2019.
The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $50.95, a high target of $63, and a low target of $36.5, revealing a wide range of estimates. The average target is only approximately 1.9% above the 52-week range high of $50.01, while the high target is approximately 26% above the high and the low target is approximately 27% below it. No usable price-to-earnings multiple is available in the data, and the wide target range is consistent with the uncertainty associated with the SECURE transaction, the potential path to becoming a private company, and the company's ability to convert earnings growth into free cash flow.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Revenue increased 16.3%, including organic growth of 6.4%, with price growth of 6.1% and the collection of additional fuel surcharges. Strong pricing and improved transfer station and residential collection volumes partially offset weakness in construction and demolition waste and special waste. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 30.4%, while the Canadian segment posted a record margin of 34%. Adjusted free cash flow reached $237 million during the quarter.
The company expects revenue of $7.52 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $2.29 billion. It is also targeting adjusted free cash flow of $900 million and an adjusted margin of 30.5%. The guidance assumes price growth exceeding 6% and a volume decline of approximately 50 basis points. These figures do not include a contribution from SECURE or from additional acquisitions during the remainder of FY2026.
Management is targeting completion of the transaction around October 1, 2026, within a 30-day window, following completion of the Canadian Competition Bureau's review. The company estimates that SECURE could add approximately 6% to adjusted EBITDA for FY2026 if the acquisition closes in Q4 FY2026. In June 2026, GFL issued $750 million of new notes to prepare financing for the transaction, then swapped the interest payments into Canadian dollars at a rate of approximately 4.5%. The transaction still carries approval and execution risks because the regulatory review was ongoing as of the call date, July 30, 2026.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Direct diesel unit costs increased approximately 60% year over year in Q2 FY2026. Fuel surcharges imposed by third-party transportation providers also caused $5 million of pressure compared with quarterly guidance. GFL's surcharges now cover the ongoing cost increase, but they do not fully recover the impact of the initial spike because of a timing lag in the collection mechanism. Management estimated that the FY2026 margin would have exceeded 31% without the increase in diesel prices, instead of the current guidance of 30.5%.
The volume decline in Q2 FY2026 was concentrated primarily in construction and demolition waste and special waste, with landfill tons declining approximately 10% to 11% year over year. The total volume impact was negative $11 million, including approximately $9 million from landfills and $2 million from material recovery facility processing. By contrast, transfer station and residential collection volumes improved, while extended producer responsibility programs contributed approximately $5 million to $7 million to growth in Canada. Management therefore described the underlying business, after isolating these items, as approximately stable.
On the July 30, 2026 call, management said that unidentified parties had submitted unsolicited proposals to take the company private and that the board of directors had formed a special committee to evaluate the options. Patrick Dovigi explained that he intends to roll his entire stake into any proposed transaction, meaning that any offer to shareholders would require approval from a majority of minority shareholders, according to his description. The company has not announced a final price, a binding agreement, or a decision to pursue the private path instead of remaining a public company. At the same time, management continues to operate the business and proceed with the SECURE acquisition without any announced change in strategy.
