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Stocks
Gold Fields Limited
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall99
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 8/8Better than 99% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
82
11.3x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
98
68.8%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
94
—4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
87
0.1x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
77
—2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
50
15.4%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
89
4▲3Top tier
GFI

GFI Gold Fields Limited

Gold Fields Limited · NYSE
Market Closed
45.10
▼ ⁦-1.27%⁩ (-0.58)
Market Cap$40.4B
Beta0.60
52w Low52w High
31.1161.64
Last Week
⁦+0.40%⁩
Last Month
⁦+11.99%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+34.51%⁩
Last Year
⁦+26.22%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$45
Analyst target · 6 analysts
$52
⁦+15%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$49–$57⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 6 analysts setting price target
$52.75
⁦+17.0%⁩
Current Price $45.10·Median $52.00
Low
$49.00
High
$57.25
Current price
$45.10
Average target
$52.75
Street summary

Analysis of GFI Price Targets

Bullish tilt

GFI price targets have seen notable stability at the $52.75 level over the past 30 days, despite a significant increase in the number of analysts participating in the valuation from 2 to 6. This stability in the arithmetic mean, alongside the expansion of the analyst base, indicates strong consensus and growing confidence in this price target, which represents a premium of approximately 29% over the current price of $40.92. Furthermore, analyst dispersion appears within a relatively narrow range between $49 and $57.25, reflecting a decrease in uncertainty regarding fair valuation.

As of 2026-08-18
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.00
Buy
Analyst coverage
⁦8 (+4)⁩
New coverage
Buy conviction
75%
High
Target dispersion
18%
Analyst ratings over time8 analysts rating
2
4
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.75 → 4.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-04-24
    Canaccord Genuity
    —· $57.25
  • = Reiterate2026-01-26
    Scotiabank
    Sector Perform· $61.00
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-01-23
    Morgan Stanley
    Equal-WeightUnderweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    11.28x
    4.94x39.51x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    8.30x
    3.70x29.59x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    7.77x
    2.62x20.92x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    7.7%
    -21.3%8.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    68.8%
    -21.2%90.4%
    Strong
  • EPS Growth YoY
    189.9%
    -249.5%198.4%
    Strong
  • Gross Margin
    55.1%
    7.6%58.9%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    —
    —
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.08x
    0.22x3.72x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-25 data

Company Overview

Gold Fields Limited is a multi-asset gold mining company that generates revenue primarily from the production and sale of gold, with silver contributing as a by-product at some operations, particularly Salares Norte. Its operating portfolio includes assets such as Salares Norte, Granny Smith, South Deep, Tarkwa, Agnew, Gruyere, and St. Ives, while Windfall in Canada represents the next major growth project. The company allocates cash flows among spending on asset integrity and sustainability, growth projects and exploration, debt reduction, distributions, and share buybacks.

In fiscal year 2024, revenue reached $5.2 billion, compared with $4.5 billion in fiscal year 2023, and gross profit increased to $2.4 billion from $1.8 billion. Net income was $1.3 billion and earnings per share were $1.38, compared with net income of $737.4 million and earnings per share of $0.77 in fiscal year 2023. Gross profit was equivalent to approximately 46% of revenue in fiscal year 2024, up from approximately 40% in fiscal year 2023, while the data do not include an annual revenue breakdown by mine.

In the results reported as part of Q2 fiscal year 2026 for the six months ended June 30, 2026, attributable production increased 12% to 1.267 million ounces, sales volumes rose 18%, and the average realized gold price climbed 51% to $4,678 per ounce. Headline earnings, earnings per share, and free cash flow more than doubled from the comparable period, and adjusted free cash flow reached $2.225 billion at an 11% yield, but all-in sustaining cost rose 13% to $1,893 per ounce. Salares Norte led the improvement in the production mix, with output increasing 173% to 337 thousand ounces and an all-in sustaining cost of $269 per ounce, while South Deep produced approximately 151 thousand ounces and Granny Smith approximately 147 thousand ounces.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Operating performance in the six months ended June 30, 2026, lifted Gold Fields' attributable production 12% to 1.267 million ounces, alongside an 18% increase in sales volumes and a 51% rise in the average realized gold price to $4,678 per ounce, driving adjusted free cash flow to $2.225 billion.
  • Salares Norte became the leading portfolio driver, as its production increased 173% to 337 thousand ounces in the first half of fiscal year 2026, generating free cash flow of just under $1.2 billion and an all-in sustaining cost of $269 per ounce, supported by improved grade reconciliation and recovery and higher silver prices.
  • On August 25, 2026, management maintained its full-year production guidance but expected to reach the upper end of it, and raised the expected Salares Norte production range from 500–550 thousand gold-equivalent ounces to 550–600 thousand ounces, while expecting all-in sustaining cost to be near the midpoint of its range and all-in cost to be near the lower end of its range.
  • The company raised the interim base dividend to 16.25 rand per share, up 132% year over year, and completed a $300 million share buyback between March and July 2026, then allocated an additional $500 million to the supplementary returns program, bringing the total allocation since November 2025 to $1.25 billion.
  • Net debt declined to $437 million on June 30, 2026, and the net debt-to-earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization ratio fell to 0.06 times from 0.37 times a year earlier, with the position shifting to net cash when lease liabilities are excluded; this supports funding Windfall and St. Ives while continuing to return capital to shareholders.
  • Windfall represents a long-term growth catalyst if approvals progress, as the Indigenous benefits agreement has been signed and the company is awaiting environmental assessment approval during the second half of fiscal year 2026, while some deep drilling results showed grades exceeding 50 grams and the company is targeting completion of the earn-in to a 70% interest in the Phoenix joint venture during the second half of fiscal year 2026.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The first half of fiscal year 2026 combines 12% production growth, an 18% increase in sales volumes, and a 51% rise in the realized gold price, resulting in adjusted free cash flow of $2.225 billion and a meaningful reduction in leverage.
  • +Salares Norte transformed the quality of the portfolio through production of 337 thousand ounces, an all-in sustaining cost of $269 per ounce, and free cash flow of nearly $1.2 billion during the six months ended June 30, 2026, while management also raised its full-year production forecast to 550–600 thousand ounces.
  • +Gold Fields allocates liquidity between growth and direct returns; in the first half of fiscal year 2026, it invested approximately $0.6 billion in sustaining capital and $0.3 billion in growth, while returning $1.4 billion to shareholders and reducing net debt by approximately $0.8 billion.
  • +The portfolio offers multiple expansion pathways, including the high-grade Windfall project, the plan to increase Invincible throughput at St. Ives to 3.4 million tonnes annually over five years, and St. Ives reserves of approximately 3.9 million ounces, with management estimating a mine life exceeding 20 years.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $52.75, within a relatively wide range of $49 to $57.25, with a “Neutral” consensus; even the highest target remains below the 52-week range high of $61.64, while the range low is $31.11. A price-to-earnings ratio is not available in the data, but on August 25, 2026, management cited an enterprise value-to-earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization multiple of 4.9 times and a free cash flow yield exceeding 10%, against repricing risks associated with the Tarkwa renewal, the Windfall delay, and rising costs.

HoldAnalyst target: $52.75(+17.0%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove GFI's results in Q2 fiscal year 2026?

In the results reported as part of Q2 fiscal year 2026 for the six months ended June 30, 2026, attributable production increased 12% to 1.267 million ounces and sales volumes rose 18%. The average realized gold price increased 51% to $4,678 per ounce, lifting adjusted free cash flow to $2.225 billion. Salares Norte was the largest operating contributor to the improvement, with its production increasing 173% to 337 thousand ounces and generating free cash flow of just under $1.2 billion.

How important is Salares Norte to Gold Fields' earnings?

Salares Norte produced approximately 337 thousand ounces in the first half of fiscal year 2026, up 173% year over year, with an all-in sustaining cost of $269 per ounce. The mine benefited from better-than-expected grade reconciliation, improved plant recovery, and higher silver prices that supported gold-equivalent production and by-product credits. Based on this performance, management said on August 25, 2026, that fiscal year 2026 production was on track for a range of 550–600 thousand gold-equivalent ounces instead of the previous guidance of 500–550 thousand ounces.

How is Gold Fields returning liquidity to shareholders in fiscal year 2026?

The company paid an interim base dividend of 16.25 rand per share for the first half of fiscal year 2026, up 132% year over year. It also completed a $300 million share buyback between March and July 2026, following a $253 million special dividend announced in February 2026. On August 25, 2026, it allocated an additional $500 million to the supplementary returns program, increasing the total allocation since November 2025 to $1.25 billion, with the program reviewed every six months based on cash generation.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −The surge in earnings and cash flows in the first half of fiscal year 2026 depends heavily on the 51% increase in the average realized gold price to $4,678 per ounce and on silver prices supporting Salares Norte; therefore, a decline in metal prices could pressure cash flows and supplementary shareholder returns.
  • −Cash costs rose 10% and all-in sustaining cost increased 13% to $1,893 per ounce in the first half of fiscal year 2026 due to royalties, stronger currencies in production regions, inflation, higher stripping ratios, and deeper mining, exposing margins to contraction if elevated gold prices do not persist or the transformation program fails to reduce consumption and procurement costs.
  • −Tarkwa's two mining leases expire in April 2027, and as of August 25, 2026, Gold Fields was awaiting the formal response from the Government of Ghana after submitting the renewal application in November 2025 and a commercial proposal in July 2026; management confirmed that the timing, outcome, and terms of the renewal remained uncertain.
  • −Environmental assessment approval for the Windfall project was delayed beyond the expected date in June 2026, and management said that failure to obtain it by the end of 2026 could delay the project until at least late 2029 and possibly beyond, while additional requirements, including an approximately $50 million nitrate treatment plant and changes in labor costs, pushed the spending estimate toward the upper end of its range, with an inflation adjustment still required.
  • −Not all mines are performing at the level of Salares Norte; Tarkwa's performance declined year over year due to a lower mill feed grade, increased processing of stockpiles, and unfavorable weather, Agnew was affected by a seismic event in early 2026, while Cerro Corona transitioned to processing stockpiles, increasing the risk of uneven performance across assets.
  • −The analyst consensus is “Neutral,” not “Buy,” and their target range is $49 to $57.25, with an average of $52.75; this average is also below the 52-week range high of $61.64, reflecting caution about how much additional value can be priced in before the Tarkwa renewal and Windfall approval are resolved.
What are the main risks associated with the Windfall and Tarkwa projects?

As of August 25, 2026, Gold Fields was awaiting environmental assessment approval for Windfall after expecting it in June 2026, and explained that the absence of approval by the end of 2026 could delay the project until at least late 2029. The environmental authority's requirements also added a nitrate treatment plant costing approximately $50 million, alongside changes in labor costs and inflationary pressures. At Tarkwa, the mining leases expire in April 2027, and the outcome, timing, and terms of the renewal remain uncertain following the application submitted in November 2025 and the commercial proposal submitted in July 2026.

Can GFI's balance sheet fund growth?

Net debt stood at $437 million on June 30, 2026, and the net debt-to-earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization ratio declined to 0.06 times from 0.37 times a year earlier. Excluding lease liabilities, Gold Fields ended the first half of fiscal year 2026 in a net cash position, with available liquidity and facilities and a long-term maturity schedule without near-term refinancing pressure. During the same period, the company invested approximately $0.6 billion in sustaining capital and $0.3 billion in growth, reduced net debt by approximately $0.8 billion, and returned $1.4 billion to shareholders.

What do the annual financial statements indicate about Gold Fields' growth and margins?

Gold Fields' revenue increased to $5.2 billion in fiscal year 2024 from $4.5 billion in fiscal year 2023 and $4.3 billion in fiscal year 2022. Gross profit increased to $2.4 billion in fiscal year 2024 from $1.8 billion in fiscal year 2023, raising the approximate gross profit margin from 40% to 46%. Net income also increased to $1.3 billion and earnings per share to $1.38, compared with net income of $737.4 million and earnings per share of $0.77 in fiscal year 2023.