| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 56 | 14.9x | 17.8x | Around median | |
Growth | 61 | 15.3% | 7.1% | Around median | |
Quality | 54 | 6.6% | 4.5% | Around median | |
Safety | 48 | 3.4x | 2.6x | Around median | |
Capital Return | 80 | — | 2.12% | Top tier | |
Momentum | 96 | 44.8% | 2.9% | Top tier | |
Sentiment | 39 | 4 | 3 | Bottom tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) primarily operates as a provider of secure support services to government agencies, particularly ICE and the US Marshals Service. Its revenue comes from operating and managing owned or leased detention facilities, management-only contracts, secure ground and air transportation, reentry services, as well as electronic monitoring and case management through the ISAP-V contract, which uses wearable GPS devices and the SmartLink application. The company emphasizes that it views itself primarily as a support services operator, which explains its potential effort to sell the buildings of certain facilities to ICE while retaining their long-term operating contracts.
In quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, revenue increased 15% year over year to $732.1 million, from $636.2 million, and net income rose 63% to $47.5 million, equivalent to $0.36 per diluted share, from $29.1 million and $0.21 per share. The calculated net income margin was approximately 6.5%, while adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 20% to $142 million, representing a margin of approximately 19.4%. On a trailing-twelve-month basis in fiscal year 2026, the company recorded revenue of $2.7 billion, net income of $273.1 million, and earnings per share of approximately $2.04.
The segment mix drove growth in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026: revenue from secure services at owned and leased facilities increased by approximately $55 million, or 16%, due to the activation of three facilities under new contracts with ICE, while revenue from management-only contracts increased by approximately $44 million, or 30%, driven by the management of the North Florida detention facility and certain transportation revenue. In contrast, reentry services revenue increased by approximately $3 million, but this was offset by a similar decline in non-residential services, while electronic monitoring and supervision revenue declined by less than $3 million, or approximately 3.5%, despite an improved mix of monitoring devices and case management services.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The average analyst price target is $40, identical to the highest and lowest available targets, compared with a 52-week range of $12.51 to $33.15; this means the target is approximately 21% above the top of the range, but the identical targets mean the estimate does not reflect a broad dispersion of views. The consensus rates the stock a "Buy," but the price-to-earnings ratio is unavailable in the provided data, so the investment case rests on contract and earnings growth and the potential monetization of facilities, weighed against concentration with ICE, debt, and execution-delay risks.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
GEO's revenue increased to $732.1 million, up 15% from quarter 2 of fiscal year 2025, while net income grew 63% to $47.5 million. Most of the expansion came from an increase of approximately $55 million in secure services at owned and leased facilities and an increase of approximately $44 million in management-only contracts. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization also rose 20% to $142 million, benefiting from new contracts and lower labor costs.
The two five-year contracts cover the 1,190-bed Bighorn facility and the 1,320-bed Rivers facility. The company expects annual revenue of approximately $85 million from Bighorn and approximately $80 million from Rivers in the first full year of operations, in addition to approximately $20 million combined from transportation services after stabilization. Activation is scheduled to be completed by the end of fiscal year 2026, but normalized earnings contributions are not expected to begin before early 2027.
Total ISAP-V participants were approximately 184 thousand on August 6, 2026, with an increasing shift from the lower-priced SmartLink application to higher-priced GPS devices and case management services. The number of ankle-device users increased from approximately 17 thousand in early 2025 to 54 thousand, while case management covered approximately 116 thousand people. Despite contract price reductions, electronic monitoring and supervision revenue declined by less than $3 million, or only approximately 3.5%, in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026.
The company expects annual revenue of between $2.95 billion and $3.05 billion, net income of between $168 million and $175 million, and diluted earnings per share of between $1.27 and $1.32. It also raised its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization range to $550–560 million. These figures exclude earnings contributions from Bighorn and Rivers or from the Graceville and Bay contracts postponed to July 1, 2027, making the timing of contract activations a key factor in interpreting the outlook.
Management said on August 6, 2026 that it was participating in an active process to sell several ready-to-use facilities to ICE, subject to agreement on price and GEO continuing to manage them under long-term support contracts. There is no definitive agreement or precise timeline, and the company does not guarantee the completion of any transaction. If sales occur, GEO intends to use the proceeds to reduce debt, repurchase shares, and for other general purposes, subject to restrictions in its debt agreements.
GEO ended the quarter with total debt of $1.54 billion and net debt of approximately $1.5 billion, with net leverage below three times adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. Cash and cash equivalents totaled $55 million, while available liquidity, including borrowing capacity under the credit facility, was approximately $300 million. In the same quarter, the company repurchased 1.6 million shares for $37 million, leaving $323 million available under the $500 million authorization.
