| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 75 | 12.7x | 17.8x | Top tier | |
Growth | 10 | -25.6% | 7.1% | Bottom tier | |
Quality | 24 | 4.6% | 4.5% | Bottom tier | |
Safety | 41 | 4.8x | 2.6x | Around median | |
Capital Return | 68 | 2.98% | 2.12% | Top tier | |
Momentum | 28 | 0.1% | 2.9% | Bottom tier | |
Sentiment | 34 | 3 | 3 | Bottom tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
The Greenbrier Companies operates through an integrated platform for manufacturing freight railcars, leasing them, and managing fleets, alongside maintenance, wheels, and parts businesses in North America. The company generates manufacturing revenue from deliveries of new railcars and maintenance programs, while the leasing and fleet management segment generates recurring revenue, management fees, and gains from monetizing certain assets; the company also benefits from combining direct sales, leasing partnerships, and asset resales to investors. Its commercial operations extend across North America, Europe, and Brazil, and Greenbrier-Maxion in Brazil recorded operating performance that exceeded expectations in Q3 FY2026, supported by the agriculture and biodiesel sectors.
In Q3 FY2026, revenue was $576.5 million according to EDGAR filings, or approximately $577 million as rounded on the earnings call, compared with $587.5 million in Q2 FY2026. The manufacturing segment generated $529 million, representing approximately 92% of quarterly revenue, while the leasing and fleet management segment generated $47 million, representing approximately 8%, with its revenue growing 3% sequentially and manufacturing revenue declining approximately 2%. Gross profit was $81.1 million, with a gross margin of 14.1%, while net income reached $18.9 million and diluted earnings per share reached $0.60, with operating earnings of $32 million and EBITDA of approximately $69 million.
Revenue for the twelve-month period reported within FY2026 data was approximately $2.6 billion, with gross profit of $397.7 million, net income of $107.1 million, and earnings per share of approximately $3.37. By comparison, FY2025 recorded revenue of $3.2 billion, gross profit of $607.5 million, net income of $204.1 million, and earnings per share of $6.35. These figures reflect a lower level of activity compared with FY2025, alongside North American industry delivery expectations falling below 25 thousand railcars during calendar year 2026, the lowest level since 2010 according to management.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The analyst consensus on GBX is “Neutral,” with an average price target of $54.4, a high of $65, and a low of $38; the average is approximately 8% below the 52-week range high of $59.19, while the low target is close to the range low of $38.23. The wide range of targets from $38 to $65 reflects significant differences in estimates of the impact of the railcar demand trough during calendar year 2026 versus the potential increase in industry deliveries in calendar year 2027 and growth in leasing revenue. The available data does not provide a valid comparable earnings multiple, so the stock's valuation here is based on the target range, the Neutral consensus, and the 52-week range rather than an unavailable earnings multiple.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-01; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Greenbrier's integrated model supports results through manufacturing, maintenance, wheels, parts, leasing, and fleet management, rather than relying exclusively on new railcar deliveries. In Q3 FY2026, manufacturing generated $529 million, while leasing and fleet management generated $47 million and grew 3% sequentially. The localization of component manufacturing, labor efficiency, and cost controls helped increase gross margin to 14.1% despite an approximately 2% decline in manufacturing revenue.
Greenbrier ended Q3 FY2026 with a backlog of 13.8 thousand railcars valued at $2.0 billion. During the same quarter, it received orders for 2.2 thousand railcars valued at $340 million, led by tank cars and covered railcars, with additional orders for gondola cars, open-top railcars, and heavy-duty flatcars. Management said on July 1, 2026 that this backlog provides production visibility through the first months of FY2027, with gaps that vary by production line.
The owned fleet reached 20.6 thousand railcars in Q3 FY2026 and maintained a utilization rate of 99% after the purchase of approximately 4.4 thousand railcars from the secondary market. Lease originations accounted for 60% of global orders, including 71% in North America and 53% in Europe. Management aims to double the recurring revenue base by 2028 and plans to invest up to $300 million annually in the fleet, with a focus on asset quality and earnings strength.
Management expects revenue between $2.4 and $2.5 billion and earnings per share between $3.00 and $3.15 in FY2026. The updated range reflects the company's view of manufacturing margins and the timing of deliveries in Q4 FY2026, with some activity shifting to FY2027. Management did not provide explicit FY2027 guidance on July 1, 2026, but noted a backlog of 13.8 thousand railcars and encouraging commercial activity for that fiscal year.
Management said on July 1, 2026 that the company had not been paying tariffs on tank cars imported from Mexico into the United States, but was seeking clarification from CBP regarding potential changes in practice. Tank cars represented approximately 20% of the backlog on that date, while the possibility of retroactive liabilities remained unclear. The contracts include provisions to pass tariffs and duties on to customers, and the company also produces tank cars at its Marmaduke facility in Arkansas, although increasing U.S. capacity requires recruiting, training, and retaining skilled labor.
The board of directors declared a dividend of $0.34 per share in Q3 FY2026, marking the 49th consecutive quarterly dividend. Approximately $65 million remained available under the share repurchase authorization at the end of the quarter. The company balances these shareholder returns with investment in the leasing fleet, which accounted primarily for $227 million of the quarter's investments, supported by total liquidity of $887 million.
